GlobalData’s takeover saga takes new turn as ICG deadline extended and KKR withdraws

GlobalData Plc has confirmed a pivotal shift in its ongoing buyout discussions, announcing that KKR has formally withdrawn its interest in acquiring the company, while ICG (Intermediate Capital Group) has received a deadline extension to continue exclusive talks. The new Rule 2.6 deadline, granted by the UK Takeover Panel, gives ICG until 5:00 p.m. on 11 June 2025 to announce a firm offer or formally walk away.

The dual announcements were issued as GlobalData’s shares reacted sharply, falling 3.99% to 180.50 GBX in afternoon trading on the London Stock Exchange, a move interpreted as investor disappointment over the potential collapse of a competitive bidding environment.

With KKR gone, the focus now rests solely on ICG and whether it will proceed with a formal offer for the data analytics firm—an outcome that could either conclude GlobalData’s transition to private equity ownership or reopen the door to public market expansion.

Why Did KKR Abandon Its Bid for GlobalData?

According to a statement issued under Rule 2.8 of the UK Takeover Code, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. has decided not to make a formal offer for GlobalData. While specifics were not disclosed, industry sources suggest that disagreement on valuation, control terms, or post-transaction governance likely led to the breakdown.

KKR’s withdrawal activates mandatory restrictions, preventing it from re-engaging in a bid for GlobalData for a minimum period—unless one of a limited set of exceptions applies, such as a board invitation or a third-party offer.

Given KKR’s track record in acquiring high-margin data and analytics companies, its exit likely narrows expectations for a premium, competitive offer unless a new bidder surfaces. Market participants had speculated that KKR’s presence could drive a bidding war, pushing valuations beyond £1.4 billion.

Why Was ICG Granted an Extension Until June 11?

GlobalData’s board confirmed that discussions with ICG remain ongoing, and that the UK Takeover Panel has approved an extension of the Rule 2.6 deadline specifically for ICG. The new deadline of June 11, 2025, gives ICG additional time to finalise due diligence, secure financing, and potentially propose a Rule 2.7-compliant firm offer.

This development indicates that ICG continues to see strategic value in acquiring GlobalData. Sources close to the matter suggest that talks are progressing constructively but are complex, particularly due to the dual-offer structure that includes both a cash component and an unlisted equity alternative.

ICG’s continued involvement is significant given its growing emphasis on data-driven businesses within its European private equity strategy, with the firm increasingly backing subscription-based intelligence platforms and knowledge-as-a-service providers.

Why Did GlobalData Stock Fall on May 28?

Investor sentiment turned sharply negative following KKR’s exit. On May 28, GlobalData shares dropped 7.50 GBX (-3.99%), closing at 180.50 GBX, with an intraday low of 179.00 GBX. This sell-off came despite the extension granted to ICG, suggesting that the market was pricing in reduced deal certainty.

Short-term traders who had positioned for a bidding war or immediate deal confirmation appear to be exiting, leading to increased volatility and wider bid-offer spreads. While the stock still trades above pre-bid levels from April (~160 GBX), the absence of competing bidders now shifts attention to whether ICG will proceed and at what valuation.

Technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest the stock is in neutral territory, but the short-term moving average has started to flatten, implying that bullish momentum may be tapering.

What Is the Institutional and Analyst Reaction?

Buy-side analysts and institutional desks remain divided. Many event-driven hedge funds are unwinding positions taken after the April 30 announcement. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), particularly those based in New York and Frankfurt, have been scaling back, as per clearing and custodial data from May 28.

In contrast, long-only Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are holding their positions or reducing at a slower pace, expecting either a firm ICG offer or a rebound via strategic uplisting. Some analysts have revised their outlook from “Speculative Buy” to “Hold,” citing deal fatigue and growing risk that no firm offer materialises.

Goldman Sachs International and J.P. Morgan Cazenove, who are advising GlobalData exclusively, are continuing due diligence and valuation advisory processes behind the scenes, but have issued no comment on pricing or strategic direction.

What Role Does CEO Mike Danson Play in the Outcome?

The ultimate fate of GlobalData will likely rest with CEO Mike Danson, who holds a commanding 59% stake in the company. Without his endorsement, no buyout can proceed. Danson has not commented publicly, but his track record suggests he is highly strategic and values long-term control over short-term monetisation.

Sources close to the situation suggest Danson is open to a deal only if operational independence is maintained post-acquisition, or if he retains a meaningful stake in the unlisted entity. These demands may complicate ICG’s bid structure and governance terms.

In the absence of an offer that meets his expectations, Danson is reportedly prepared to refocus the company on main market uplisting and FTSE 250 inclusion, strengthening the case for valuation re-rating via public markets.

Historical Context: Private Equity’s UK Mid-Cap Grab

The GlobalData situation is not unique. Since 2022, global private equity firms have aggressively targeted undervalued UK-listed companies, especially those with intellectual property, data infrastructure, or sticky enterprise revenue.

Recent transactions—such as the takeovers of Blue Prism, Aveva, and Dechra Pharmaceuticals—reflect this trend. These firms, like GlobalData, had seen margin compression in public markets despite strong fundamentals.

The KKR-ICG interest in GlobalData fit this pattern precisely. The company’s predictable cash flows, cross-sector data reach, and AI-powered research tools made it an ideal candidate for private ownership. Now, with KKR gone, GlobalData may become a test case for whether single-sponsor buyouts can succeed in the absence of competitive pressure.

What Could Happen Next with GlobalData?

If ICG presents a firm offer before June 11, and it meets the board’s expectations, the transaction could move to the shareholder approval stage within weeks. Analysts expect that any such offer would need to price at 190–200 GBX per share to win majority support.

If ICG walks away or the deadline passes without an agreement, GlobalData will likely resume its public-market roadmap, targeting FTSE index inclusion and potentially returning to strategic acquisitions or organic platform expansion.

Some market watchers believe the exit of KKR could open space for new bidders post-June, especially if the board signals openness to other strategic options. However, any new talks would likely require fresh Rule 2.6 timelines and panel approvals.