TotalEnergies’ Africa strategy: Gas, LNG, and post-oil portfolio discipline

Why TotalEnergies Is Doubling Down on Gas in Africa

TotalEnergies SE is executing a carefully recalibrated Africa strategy that is moving away from non-core oil assets and redirecting capital into gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and low-emission upstream growth. The $510 million divestment of its 12.5% stake in Nigeria’s Bonga oil field to Shell plc in May 2025 is not just a balance sheet maneuver—it is emblematic of a broader reshuffling in how the French energy major views its role in Africa’s evolving energy map.

President of Exploration & Production Nicolas Terraz stated that the move is part of TotalEnergies’ plan to high-grade its upstream portfolio. The company is focusing on operated positions with lower technical costs, lower emissions, and a stronger strategic fit. Its African strategy now centers on gas-led growth corridors, LNG infrastructure, and assets aligned with its net-zero roadmap.

Divesting Bonga: Why Did TotalEnergies Sell?

The Bonga stake divestment is consistent with TotalEnergies’ exit from non-operated, high-emission, or capital-intensive oil fields that no longer fit its integrated model. The 12.5% non-operated interest in the OML 118 Production Sharing Contract provided around 11,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024—not insignificant, but well below scale thresholds the company deems strategic.

By selling the stake to Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo), the field’s operator, TotalEnergies has exited an asset where it had limited influence over development pace, emissions intensity, or capex decisions. The proceeds will be redirected toward growth projects such as the Ubeta field and LNG infrastructure aligned with its decarbonization focus.

Market analysts broadly supported the transaction, seeing it as evidence of TotalEnergies’ capital discipline and commitment to its post-oil growth model.

What Is the Ubeta Project and Why Does It Matter?

Ubeta, located in Nigeria’s onshore Niger Delta region, is a low-cost, gas-focused project operated by TotalEnergies. It is designed to supply feedstock to the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) plant at Bonny Island, where TotalEnergies holds a 15% stake.

Expected to begin production in 2026, the Ubeta project is a key part of Nigeria’s upstream gas expansion and was explicitly mentioned in Terraz’s comments following the Bonga sale. The project reflects the company’s shift toward gas-to-LNG integration, emphasizing emissions control, capital efficiency, and gas monetization for both domestic and export markets.

Compared to oil projects like Bonga, Ubeta offers a cleaner emissions profile, fewer above-ground risks, and better alignment with both Nigerian government policy and TotalEnergies’ net-zero targets.

What Does TotalEnergies’ Africa LNG Portfolio Look Like?

TotalEnergies is one of the largest LNG players globally, and Africa is central to its expansion plan. In addition to Ubeta in Nigeria, the company is a key operator in several major LNG projects across the continent.

In Mozambique, TotalEnergies leads the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project in Cabo Delgado province. Though the project was suspended in 2021 due to security concerns, TotalEnergies has resumed phased re-engagement, with a focus on safety and community development. Restart activities have progressed through 2024 and into 2025, with first LNG now expected by late 2026 or early 2027, depending on the security situation.

In South Africa, TotalEnergies has acquired rights to offshore Block 11B/12B and made significant gas discoveries, including the Brulpadda and Luiperd fields. The company has proposed a phased LNG development concept involving floating LNG (FLNG) solutions to monetize the reserves while bypassing extensive onshore infrastructure delays.

In Senegal and Mauritania, while not the operator, TotalEnergies maintains partnerships in emerging gas provinces. However, the company is increasingly favoring operated assets where it controls project timing and emissions strategies.

Taken together, these projects reflect a deliberate effort to pivot Africa’s legacy oil footprint into an integrated gas and LNG growth platform—consistent with both global market demand and EU-aligned energy security.

How Does This Fit TotalEnergies’ Energy Transition Model?

TotalEnergies’ 2024–2030 strategic roadmap aims to grow LNG output to over 50 million tonnes per annum while reducing scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity across upstream operations. Gas is viewed not as a transition fuel, but as a core growth vector, with Africa serving as a critical region for resource scale, market proximity, and regulatory engagement.

The company has pledged to limit oil investments to those that are low-cost, low-emissions, and high-control. This principle underpins the Bonga exit and its continuing exit from Libyan and Congolese legacy assets in favor of more bankable gas-driven investments.

Financially, TotalEnergies continues to target a cash breakeven of $25 per barrel for upstream operations and relies on LNG to hedge portfolio volatility. African gas fits this thesis—particularly where existing LNG infrastructure can be leveraged or expanded.

What Is the Market Sentiment Around TotalEnergies’ Africa Shift?

Investor reaction to the Bonga sale and Ubeta positioning has been largely positive. Analysts from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs described the move as “portfolio sharpening” and in line with stated goals to decarbonize without impairing upstream cash flow.

Institutional sentiment has remained steady, with total exposure unchanged but rotated from oil-weighted funds to climate-aligned and LNG-focused portfolios. The market has also rewarded TotalEnergies for consistency—unlike some peers who have sent mixed signals on upstream vs. renewables, the French major has maintained a coherent gas-forward message.

In African policy circles, TotalEnergies has gained credibility as a long-term infrastructure partner, particularly in Nigeria and Mozambique where gas monetization is seen as key to both fiscal stability and just energy transition.

What Are the Risks to TotalEnergies’ Africa LNG Strategy?

While strategic, the LNG-heavy pivot is not without its challenges. In Mozambique, insurgent threats in Cabo Delgado remain unresolved despite phased project resumption. In Nigeria, infrastructure bottlenecks, gas pricing, and regulatory clarity under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) could affect project economics.

Additionally, the global LNG market is becoming more competitive, with rising supply from Qatar, the U.S., and Australia. For TotalEnergies to maintain margins, it must continue to deliver low-cost LNG with minimal emissions—hence the emphasis on carbon capture integration and floating LNG design.

Yet, despite these risks, the structural demand for African gas remains strong, especially from European buyers seeking long-term diversification from Russian gas supply.

Future Outlook: From Divestments to Discipline

TotalEnergies’ African portfolio is no longer oil-heavy. It is gas-integrated, LNG-oriented, and built for capital discipline. The company’s decision to exit Bonga, double down on Ubeta, and progress Mozambique LNG sends a clear message: legacy oil plays will no longer define its presence in the region.

As of 2025, Africa remains central to TotalEnergies’ upstream model—not as a volume engine, but as a platform for clean-burning gas, reliable LNG exports, and controlled emissions. In a continent still hungry for investment, that repositioning may ensure staying power long after the oil era fades.