Hamas in disarray: Leadership cloaked in secrecy after Sinwar’s death

After the killing of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas faces a strategic crisis as it works to reorganize and recover. Sinwar, who served as the leader of Hamas’s military wing in Gaza since 2017, was confirmed dead following an Israeli airstrike in Rafah. The militant group now moves cautiously, concealing the identity of its new leader—a move intended to protect its command structure and prevent further Israeli assassinations.

Hamas’s leadership, often based in different regions including Gaza, Qatar, and Lebanon, has yet to publicly name a successor. Analysts believe that the group’s decision to maintain secrecy is aimed at shielding key figures and ensuring continuity within its military and political wings. Mohammad Sinwar, Yahya’s brother, is tipped to play a prominent role, particularly in military operations, as Hamas adapts its strategy to counter Israel’s offensive.

Sinwar’s Death: A Major Setback or a Tactical Shift for Hamas?

The killing of Sinwar marks a significant loss for Hamas. Sinwar, regarded as the mastermind behind the deadly October 7, 2023, attack that escalated the conflict, was instrumental in orchestrating Hamas’s military operations. His removal has left a vacuum, and experts speculate that the group’s remaining leaders—both within Gaza and abroad—are recalibrating their approach to avoid similar fates.

Neil Quilliam of Chatham House highlighted that while Sinwar’s death weakens Hamas in the short term, it is unlikely to collapse the organization’s resolve. Instead, Hamas may shift to drawing upon younger leaders who can rally support from Palestinians frustrated with ongoing conflicts. Similarly, Peter Lintl of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs emphasized that Hamas’s ability to operate autonomously across Gaza and other regions remains intact, despite the loss of such a high-profile figure.

Future of Hamas: External Influence and Internal Adjustments

In the immediate aftermath of Sinwar’s death, Hamas’s leadership structure is shifting. With leaders abroad—especially in Qatar—potentially assuming greater influence, experts suggest that these external bases might allow Hamas to leverage diplomatic ties and secure resources. This transition may also mean negotiations for a ceasefire could be more influenced by external players like Qatar and Egypt, which hold sway over Hamas’s political wing.

The secrecy surrounding the new leader highlights Hamas’s strategy to protect its command center from further Israeli strikes. The group’s past experiences have shown that naming high-profile figures openly makes them targets, a lesson learned from the elimination of former leaders like Ismail Haniyeh.

Expert Analysis: Missed Opportunities or Tactical Delays?

Israel’s success in targeting Sinwar could have opened doors for peace negotiations. However, the continued insistence by Israeli leaders to pursue military action until every hostage is freed may limit opportunities for ceasefire talks and prolong conflict. This could represent a missed chance to capitalize on Sinwar’s removal for a broader, diplomatic solution.

Meanwhile, international responses are mixed. While some, including the United States, view the development as an opportunity to push for peace, Hamas remains firm in its demands, with statements indicating they will not release hostages until an end to the war in Gaza is reached. The ongoing volatility in Gaza and the heightened tension with Hezbollah in Lebanon suggest that any leadership shift within Hamas may carry broader implications for regional stability.

Implications for Regional Security

The ripple effects of Sinwar’s death extend beyond Gaza. Hezbollah, another Iran-backed group operating out of Lebanon, has vowed to escalate its support for Hamas. With a new phase of intensified military action announced by Hezbollah, observers caution that Israel’s multi-front strategy could exacerbate the conflict.

Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, assert that operations will continue until Hamas’s remaining leadership is neutralized and hostages are safely returned. This stance underlines Israel’s determination to leverage the tactical advantage gained by eliminating Sinwar, but it also suggests that the conflict is far from over.