Biggest U.S. pork deal collapse since COVID as China hits back in tariff fight

China has cancelled 12,000 metric tons of pork shipments from the United States, marking the largest U.S. pork order cancellation since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The development, disclosed on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), underscores growing trade friction between the world’s two largest economies following a fresh wave of retaliatory tariffs.

According to the USDA’s latest export sales report, the cancelled pork shipments were originally scheduled for near-term delivery. The sudden reversal, confirmed by agency officials, reflects China’s growing dissatisfaction with recent tariff escalations imposed by President Donald Trump‘s administration, which raised duties on Chinese goods to as high as 145%.

Bloomberg News first reported the scale of the cancellation, noting that it is the most substantial pork order withdrawal since global supply chains were severely disrupted by pandemic restrictions in 2020.

What Prompted China to Cancel the U.S. Pork Shipments?

The pork cancellation follows Beijing‘s announcement of a 125% tariff on a wide range of U.S. products, including agricultural commodities such as pork, soybeans, and corn. Chinese officials said the tariffs were necessary to counter what they described as “unilateral bullying” by Washington.

The Ministry of Commerce in Beijing, without directly referencing specific product categories, stated that retaliatory actions were intended to “protect legitimate interests” while maintaining a commitment to multilateral trading norms. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that Chinese pork buyers, faced with significantly higher import costs due to the new tariffs, opted to withdraw pending orders rather than absorb the price increases.

Industry analysts cited by Bloomberg suggested that with other options now available, particularly pork imports from Brazil and the European Union, Chinese buyers see little need to continue purchases at elevated U.S. prices.

How Significant Is This Pork Order Cancellation for U.S. Agriculture?

The loss of 12,000 metric tons of pork sales represents a sharp setback for U.S. pork producers, who have increasingly relied on exports to maintain margins amid high domestic production costs.

Lean hog futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell by up to 1.6% immediately after the USDA’s disclosure. Agricultural economists warned that if trade disruptions persist, broader impacts on farm incomes, employment in rural economies, and commodity markets could follow.

The National Pork Producers Council did not issue an immediate statement but has previously urged both governments to de-escalate tensions to preserve agricultural trade flows.

China has historically been among the largest importers of U.S. pork, particularly during the 2019–2020 period when African Swine Fever decimated domestic hog herds. Even after partial recovery, China’s appetite for pork imports has remained strong, making the country a critical market for American producers.

What Are Officials Saying About the Broader Trade Situation?

President Donald Trump told reporters at a White House briefing on Thursday evening that “talks are ongoing” with China but did not provide details on any formal negotiations or meetings. However, Chinese Foreign Ministry representatives, in comments reported by Reuters, denied that any high-level trade talks were currently underway.

The conflicting statements suggest a widening gap between Washington and Beijing over both the existence and scope of trade diplomacy efforts. Analysts view this gap as a potential obstacle to resolving not only agricultural trade tensions but also broader economic issues spanning technology, intellectual property, and foreign investment rules.

How Does This Relate to Past U.S.-China Agricultural Trade Patterns?

Agricultural exports have been a recurring casualty during past U.S.-China trade disputes. During the 2018–2019 trade war, U.S. farm exports to China plummeted as both countries levied successive tariffs. A partial recovery came after the 2020 “Phase One” trade agreement, which committed China to purchase specific amounts of U.S. agricultural goods in exchange for tariff reductions.

However, compliance with that agreement weakened over time, and renewed geopolitical tensions—exacerbated by military, technology, and human rights disputes—have reignited tariff battles. Today’s pork shipment cancellation reflects how quickly agricultural supply lines can again become collateral damage in broader strategic disputes.

Could China’s Pork Sourcing Strategies Change Permanently?

Following the 2018 trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic, China has worked aggressively to diversify its sources of key agricultural imports. Brazil, Spain, Germany, and Denmark have expanded their share of China’s pork market over the past five years.

Officials from the China Meat Association previously stated that diversifying supply chains was a top priority for national food security strategies. Brazil’s pork exports to China, for instance, have increased by over 35% year-on-year, according to recent customs data.

Given this trend, experts believe China may now entrench alternative sourcing patterns, making it difficult for U.S. exporters to regain lost ground even if tariffs eventually fall. That would represent a structural loss of market access for U.S. pork producers rather than a temporary disruption.

How Are U.S. Markets and Producers Reacting?

Financial markets reacted quickly to the USDA announcement. Shares of major pork producers such as Tyson Foods and Hormel Foods saw modest declines in early Friday trading sessions. Analysts noted that while diversified food companies could absorb some impact, specialised pork exporters would feel sharper pressure.

Farm lobby groups reiterated calls for trade stability. Speaking to CNBC, representatives from the American Farm Bureau Federation urged policymakers to find “mutually beneficial solutions” that prevent agricultural goods from being used as leverage in geopolitical disputes.

Meanwhile, lean hog futures are expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks as traders assess whether further Chinese cancellations or additional retaliatory measures will emerge.

What Is the Broader Economic Context?

The pork cancellation comes against a backdrop of slowing global trade growth, heightened protectionism, and shifting supply chain strategies. The World Trade Organization recently revised its 2025 global trade growth forecast downward, citing rising tariffs, economic fragmentation, and regionalisation of supply chains.

In this environment, agriculture—which depends heavily on open markets—is particularly vulnerable. Analysts at Rabobank warned earlier this year that escalating U.S.-China tensions could shave several billion dollars off annual U.S. agricultural export revenues if no resolution is found.

What Comes Next?

At present, there are no indications of immediate new negotiations between the United States and China. Trade officials on both sides have publicly reaffirmed their respective positions, making near-term breakthroughs unlikely.

In the meantime, U.S. pork exporters may need to intensify efforts to expand sales in alternative markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Mexico to mitigate losses. Domestic pork demand, while robust, is unlikely to fully offset export shortfalls without additional government support or sectoral adjustments.

The cancellation of 12,000 metric tons of pork shipments serves as a clear indicator of how rapidly international trade relations can shift—and how agricultural producers, caught in the crossfire, must adapt to survive in an increasingly fragmented global market.