Ukraine pushes for long-range missile strikes: Is Biden ready to escalate the war?

The United States has announced a new $700 million aid package to Ukraine, aiming to bolster the nation’s defenses and stabilize its war-ravaged energy infrastructure ahead of a harsh winter. During his recent visit to Kyiv, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that this package would address both military and humanitarian needs, further deepening Western involvement in the ongoing conflict. At the same time, Ukraine’s leadership is increasingly vocal in pushing the West for permission to carry out long-range missile strikes against Russian territories, arguing it is essential to protect their citizens and end the conflict.

The new aid package is strategically divided into several components. Around $325 million is allocated for the repair and restoration of Ukraine’s energy grid, which has suffered extensive damage from Russian missile and drone strikes. Another $290 million will support humanitarian needs such as food, water, shelter, and healthcare. The remaining $102 million is set aside for demining operations, ensuring safety in regions cleared of Russian forces. This aid arrives at a critical juncture as Ukraine’s infrastructure faces further strain, and winter threatens to exacerbate the situation.

Kyiv’s Desperate Plea for Long-Range Strikes

As Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Ukrainian officials, the calls from Kyiv for permission to use long-range missiles grew louder. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been explicit about the need to hit back at Russian forces deep within their own territory, particularly given Russia’s acquisition of ballistic missiles from Iran. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal echoed these sentiments, expressing hope that agreements could be reached to utilize Western-provided long-range assets against Russian targets.

However, the U.S. and other Western leaders have been cautious. President Joe Biden has allowed the use of U.S.-supplied missiles by Ukraine, but only for self-defense within limited ranges. Concerns about escalating the conflict into a broader war have kept Washington from approving longer-range strikes. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently reiterated this cautious stance, stating that no single military capability, such as long-range strikes, would be decisive in ending the war.

Expert Opinion: Balancing Support with Escalation Risks

Military experts argue that while Western aid is crucial for Ukraine’s survival and resistance, the strategic use of long-range weapons presents significant risks. “Granting Kyiv permission for long-range strikes could provoke Russia into escalating the conflict, potentially involving more aggressive tactics or even other state actors,” stated a senior defense analyst. Experts also emphasize the need for a balanced approach, where military support is coupled with diplomatic pressure to bring both parties to the negotiation table.

However, some experts believe that denying Ukraine the ability to strike deeper within Russian territory could prolong the conflict, giving Russian forces more opportunities to regroup and attack. “Without the capacity to threaten Russian supply lines and command centers, Ukraine remains vulnerable,” argued another defense specialist.

Winter Threats and Future Uncertainties

As winter approaches, Ukraine’s power grid remains vulnerable, with about 70% of its generation capacity reportedly knocked out by Russian attacks. The energy-focused component of the U.S. aid package aims to alleviate this critical vulnerability. Still, the upcoming U.S. elections could introduce further uncertainty in Washington’s policy towards Ukraine. Former President Donald Trump, a potential contender, has criticized the ongoing support but has not clearly stated his position on Ukraine’s victory.

Kyiv’s reliance on Western aid is undeniable, as acknowledged by President Zelenskyy, who stated, “We rely heavily on U.S. support, and frankly, we can’t prevail without it.” The Ukrainian leadership is keenly aware of the shifting political dynamics and remains hopeful that Western support will continue to flow, even if long-range strike capabilities remain off the table.