Double disaster: Second earthquake jolts Pakistan amid military stand-off with India

What Happened During the Back-to-Back Earthquakes in Pakistan?

On May 10, 2025, Pakistan experienced a second earthquake within a span of a few hours, intensifying concern in a country already reeling under the weight of escalating military tensions with India. According to seismological data reported by regional authorities and news agency ANI, the latest quake measured 5.3 on the Richter scale and struck various parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. This came shortly after an earlier tremor, which had registered a magnitude of 4.0 during the intervening night of May 9 and 10.

The first quake originated at a shallow depth of 10 kilometers, with coordinates of 29.67°N latitude and 66.10°E longitude, an area not unfamiliar with seismic instability. Despite the dual shocks, there have been no immediate reports of casualties or significant structural damage. However, civil defence teams and local disaster management authorities have been placed on alert, given the possibility of aftershocks and the general state of emergency preparedness required under the current geopolitical climate.

Why Is the Earthquake Timing So Critical for Pakistan?

The seismic activity occurred at a moment of acute national vulnerability. Pakistan is currently under internal strain due to a deteriorating economic outlook and growing political instability. More pressingly, the country is engaged in a rapidly worsening border confrontation with India following military escalations, airspace violations, and retaliatory operations in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack earlier this month.

In this context, the earthquake adds another layer of complexity to Pakistan’s emergency coordination mechanisms. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the armed forces have been juggling multiple concurrent responsibilities, including civil protection, intelligence surveillance, and frontline military deployments. The earthquakes, while not immediately catastrophic, are a reminder of the additional stress placed on a country already stretched thin across multiple fronts—security, health, infrastructure, and governance.

How Did Local and National Authorities Respond?

Immediately following the tremors, regional administration units across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa initiated structural safety inspections in sensitive zones such as hospitals, schools, and military installations. Preliminary assessments indicated no visible damage, but vigilance remained high. Emergency protocols were activated, including advisories issued to residents in high-risk districts to stay alert for aftershocks and avoid unstable structures.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) and NDMA both issued statements confirming that response teams had been deployed, with particular attention to the high-altitude and mountainous areas prone to landslides or building collapses. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) continues to monitor seismic activity in the region.

Given the fragile security situation, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) department also confirmed that military resources remain on standby not just for combat readiness, but also for humanitarian support in the event of a natural disaster escalation.

How Common Are Earthquakes in Pakistan?

Pakistan is located along the complex tectonic boundary where the Indian Plate meets the Eurasian Plate, making it one of the most seismically active regions in South Asia. The country’s northwestern belt, particularly regions such as Baluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, often experiences moderate to strong earthquakes due to the underlying fault lines.

Historically, Pakistan has witnessed deadly quakes, such as the 2005 Kashmir earthquake which claimed over 80,000 lives and displaced millions. Although the recent tremors were not as severe, the psychological impact on communities living near seismic hotspots is considerable—especially when paired with military uncertainty and civil unrest.

What Is the Broader Risk Context for Pakistan Right Now?

The back-to-back earthquakes serve as a stark reminder of the layered risks Pakistan currently faces. In addition to military tensions with India—highlighted by recent airstrikes, drone surveillance operations, and missile interceptions—the country is confronting economic fragility, climate vulnerability, and a strained healthcare infrastructure.

Furthermore, the monsoon season, expected to begin in the coming weeks, raises additional red flags for flood-prone areas already shaken by seismic activity. Coordination between climate risk management agencies and defence establishments has become more essential than ever.

The recent IMF loan disbursement under the Extended Fund Facility and the newly signed Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) have bolstered short-term liquidity. Still, long-term disaster preparedness, climate adaptation, and civil defence investments remain underfunded. A sudden natural disaster at this juncture could easily tip the balance for Pakistan’s fragile internal equilibrium.

Are Indian Defence Analysts Monitoring These Developments?

India’s defence and intelligence community is reportedly monitoring the situation closely, especially as seismic activity near shared borders can complicate cross-border operations and surveillance. Analysts believe the timing of the earthquakes could delay or affect immediate tactical plans if infrastructure like radar stations, forward operating bases, or supply routes were to be impacted in Pakistan-administered territories.

Moreover, such natural events provide opportunities for humanitarian messaging and soft diplomacy. However, given the elevated bilateral hostilities following Operation Sindoor and the retaliatory airstrikes in PoK, Indian government channels have remained muted on offering assistance.

Is There Any Early Sentiment From the Public or Media?

Early sentiment in Pakistani media has been mixed—relieved at the absence of casualties but anxious about the implications of recurring earthquakes. Social media commentary has shown a rise in fear-related keywords like “aftershock,” “emergency,” and “military readiness.” Citizens are increasingly expressing concern that Pakistan’s disaster management agencies may not be fully equipped to handle concurrent crises, particularly if a major quake strikes during peak cross-border tensions.

Television and print outlets have largely focused on factual updates but have also called attention to past lapses in structural safety regulations, especially in informal housing clusters across quake-prone areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

What Could Happen Next?

Experts from Pakistan’s geological and meteorological departments have warned of the possibility of further aftershocks. Given that two earthquakes occurred within 24 hours, there remains a heightened risk window for subsequent seismic activity in the same region. Disaster readiness drills and emergency evacuation plans are likely to be intensified over the next few days.

Simultaneously, military planning is expected to adapt dynamically to these developments. In situations where terrain integrity or infrastructure resilience is compromised by natural tremors, military operations—especially those requiring precision strikes or troop movements through mountainous terrain—could be recalibrated.

For residents and national stakeholders alike, the convergence of natural and geopolitical crises demands heightened coordination, resource flexibility, and a resilient communication network. How Pakistan balances military strategy with civil protection in the coming days will determine the extent of the disruption caused by these overlapping emergencies.