Fresh earthquake jolts Pakistan: Is a bigger quake coming next?

What Happened in the Latest Earthquake in Pakistan?

A magnitude 4.0 earthquake struck Pakistan at 1:44 a.m. IST on May 10, 2025, according to the National Center for Seismology. The tremor originated at a shallow depth of 10 kilometers, with the epicenter located at 29.67°N latitude and 66.10°E longitude. The earthquake did not result in any immediate reports of casualties or structural damage, but it marks the continuation of a sequence of low- to moderate-intensity seismic events that have affected the region in recent weeks.

The recent quake follows a 4.2-magnitude tremor that hit parts of Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan earlier in the week, also occurring at a depth of 10 kilometers. A slightly stronger earthquake, measuring 4.4 in magnitude, was recorded on April 30 with an epicenter at 31.08°N and 68.84°E and a deeper focal point of 50 kilometers. The strongest seismic activity in the current series occurred on April 12, when a 5.8-magnitude earthquake struck at a depth of 10 kilometers, triggering widespread public concern about the potential for stronger aftershocks.

Why Is Pakistan Experiencing Frequent Earthquakes?

Pakistan lies within one of the world’s most seismically active zones, located at the juncture of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. This plate boundary generates constant tectonic stress, particularly affecting regions such as Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. These areas lie near multiple fault lines, including the Chaman Fault and the Main Mantle Thrust, which are known to produce frequent earthquakes due to the convergent boundary dynamics.

Geologists have long identified this region as one of high vulnerability, not only due to its tectonic placement but also due to population density and infrastructure quality in many of the affected areas. Urban centers in seismic zones often lack quake-resistant buildings, compounding the risk in the event of a major earthquake. Although no damage was reported in the latest tremor, the recurring seismic activity continues to raise alarms among seismologists and emergency planners alike.

What Do Experts Say About the Seismic Risks in Pakistan?

Seismologists monitoring the region suggest that the current series of tremors may indicate the release of accumulated tectonic stress along fault lines in western and northern Pakistan. According to geological analysis, shallow earthquakes such as the recent ones pose a greater risk of surface-level damage, especially in densely populated or poorly constructed areas. Although the recent magnitudes have not crossed critical thresholds, experts warn that clusters of shallow tremors can sometimes precede a more significant seismic event.

Geophysical studies of the Indian-Eurasian plate collision have shown that the Indian Plate is moving northward at a rate of about 5 cm per year, colliding with and subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate. This movement not only uplifts the Himalayan mountain range but also contributes to ongoing stress accumulation in the Earth’s crust, increasing the likelihood of large-magnitude events. As of now, however, no major rupture has occurred, and scientists emphasize the importance of preparedness over prediction.

Has This Region Faced Severe Earthquakes in the Past?

Pakistan has experienced several devastating earthquakes over the past two decades, which continue to influence disaster preparedness strategies. The 2005 Kashmir earthquake remains one of the deadliest in the country’s history, killing over 80,000 people and displacing millions. More recently, a 6.4-magnitude quake hit Balochistan in 2021, causing casualties and significant infrastructure damage in remote villages.

Historically, most major earthquakes in Pakistan have occurred along the fault zones in the northwestern belt of the country. These include both interplate earthquakes—where one tectonic plate slides past another—and intraplate earthquakes, which occur within a single plate due to stress redistribution. Both types can result in considerable damage depending on depth, location, and timing.

What Are the Authorities Doing in Response?

In the aftermath of recent tremors, the Pakistan Meteorological Department and the National Disaster Management Authority have reportedly stepped up monitoring and preparedness. While there has been no formal advisory issued following the latest 4.0-magnitude quake, local authorities in Balochistan and adjacent provinces are maintaining heightened readiness for potential aftershocks. Emergency response units are on standby, and building inspections in vulnerable areas have reportedly been stepped up following the April 12 event.

Community-level earthquake preparedness remains a significant challenge in Pakistan. Many rural and peri-urban regions lack early warning systems, public awareness programs, and robust structural codes. The repeated seismic activity underscores the need for long-term investment in resilient infrastructure, training, and public education to mitigate disaster impact.

Are Aftershocks Expected Following This Earthquake?

Shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or above often lead to minor aftershocks, especially when they are part of an ongoing seismic sequence, as appears to be the case in Pakistan. Geologists explain that each event slightly redistributes tectonic stress, potentially triggering further ruptures along nearby faults. While aftershocks typically decrease in intensity and frequency over time, there is always a chance that a more significant rupture could occur, particularly if seismic stress is concentrated in a specific region.

The repeated low- to moderate-magnitude tremors seen in the past four weeks have increased the likelihood of continued aftershocks, though the exact intensity and timing remain impossible to predict. Residents in quake-prone areas are advised to follow basic safety protocols, including identifying safe zones within homes and workplaces and preparing emergency kits.

What Is the Outlook for Seismic Activity in Pakistan?

Given its tectonic location, seismic activity in Pakistan is likely to remain frequent and unpredictable. While the 4.0-magnitude earthquake on May 10 did not cause damage, it serves as another reminder of the latent seismic risks in the region. Experts continue to advocate for a national seismic hazard map, better zoning regulations, and public education campaigns that can save lives during larger seismic events.

Pakistan’s susceptibility to earthquakes is not an anomaly but a long-standing geological reality. With several major fault lines traversing the country, especially in the western arc, the future of seismic preparedness lies in integrated response frameworks that combine real-time data, structural resilience, and community training.

The past month’s repeated tremors—including the 5.8-magnitude quake on April 12—signal a heightened phase of tectonic activity. Although no catastrophic event has yet occurred, the risk profile remains elevated, and vigilance is critical.