Super El Niño could become strongest on record as global food and trade risks rise

A rapidly strengthening El Niño now has a 69% chance of reaching historic intensity later this year and potentially exceeding every comparable event in records dating to 1950, according to a major forecast issued on August 13, 2026. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says there is also a greater than 90% probability that El Niño will become very strong during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27 as unusually warm Pacific waters continue intensifying. The development could reshape rainfall, temperatures, agriculture and trade across large parts of the world, bringing excessive rain to some regions while worsening drought, wildfire and food-security risks elsewhere. Global humanitarian agencies are already preparing for potentially severe consequences, with the World Food Programme estimating that the 2026-27 El Niño could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.

NOAA’s August update represents a significant escalation from earlier forecasts because the atmosphere and ocean are now displaying increasingly coordinated El Niño conditions. Sea-surface temperature anomalies have exceeded 2°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, while temperatures below the surface have reached as much as 10°C above average in some areas. Rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns are also increasingly behaving in ways associated with El Niño, giving forecasters greater confidence that the event will continue strengthening through the end of the year.

The effects will not be uniform, and a stronger El Niño does not guarantee a particular disaster in any individual country. It does, however, increase the probability of characteristic El Niño disruptions, creating potentially important consequences for major agricultural regions, the Panama Canal, fisheries, hydropower systems and already vulnerable populations across Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia.

NOAA now sees a 69% chance that El Niño reaches unprecedented strength late this year

The Climate Prediction Center said El Niño strengthened substantially during July and is expected to intensify further through the remainder of 2026. NOAA measured July sea-surface temperature anomalies of 1.4°C in the Niño-3.4 region, 1.7°C in Niño-3 and 2.9°C in Niño-1+2, while subsurface heat also increased sharply across the equatorial Pacific. These measurements indicate that the warming is not confined to a thin layer at the ocean surface but is supported by a substantial reservoir of unusually warm water below it.

NOAA now estimates a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. More strikingly, forecasters place the probability of an historic event during the October-to-December period at 69%, defined in the current outlook as a three-month relative Oceanic Niño Index of at least 2.5°C that would exceed previous events in the record beginning in 1950.

That does not mean scientists are predicting every previous El Niño weather record will be broken. El Niño describes a large-scale ocean-atmosphere pattern rather than a single global weather outcome, and individual regions can experience substantially different consequences even during similarly strong events. NOAA explicitly cautions that stronger El Niño conditions make typical impacts more likely without guaranteeing them.

The latest forecast nevertheless places 2026-27 alongside the most consequential El Niño episodes of the modern era. Previous exceptionally strong events, including 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, were associated with major flooding, drought, agricultural losses and economic disruption across multiple continents.

Latin America could see both agricultural gains and destructive flooding from the same El Niño

Latin America illustrates why the economic effects of El Niño are complicated rather than uniformly negative. Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and southern Brazil generally receive more rainfall during El Niño conditions, which can improve soil moisture for soybeans, corn and wheat and potentially increase harvests after dry periods. Additional rainfall could therefore benefit some of the world’s most important agricultural exporters if it arrives at useful stages of crop development.

Too much rain creates a different set of risks. Persistent wet conditions can promote fungal disease, wash nutrients from fields and leave rural roads impassable, making it difficult for farmers to plant, treat or harvest crops. Paraguay has already prepared military and civilian engineering teams for potential flooding, while vulnerable urban and transportation infrastructure across southern agricultural regions could face heavier rainfall as El Niño strengthens.

Conditions are expected to move in the opposite direction across parts of northern South America and the Caribbean. Drought, extreme heat and wildfire risks could increase across portions of Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela, while the Amazon basin faces particular concerns because low river levels can restrict transportation through waterways used to move agricultural commodities.

This divergence means El Niño can simultaneously improve harvest prospects in one part of the world’s largest food-exporting region while threatening production and transportation elsewhere. For global commodity markets, the eventual effect will depend not only on total crop yields but also on whether roads, ports and rivers remain capable of moving those crops efficiently.

Panama Canal restrictions show how El Niño can disrupt global trade without damaging a single ship

One of the most internationally significant vulnerabilities is the Panama Canal, where freshwater availability determines how many vessels can transit and how heavily they can be loaded. Authorities are already reducing allowable vessel drafts as they conserve water, with forecasts indicating that drought conditions could become at least as serious as those experienced during the El Niño-related dry period of 2023-24.

Lower draft limits force some ships to carry less cargo, potentially increasing transportation costs or requiring companies to split shipments across more vessels. The disruption becomes particularly important because alternative global shipping routes are simultaneously under pressure from security problems around the Middle East and the Suez corridor.

El Niño can therefore influence international commerce even without producing dramatic storm damage. Reduced precipitation in Panama affects the freshwater system required to operate canal locks, which in turn affects the amount of cargo that can move between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The developing event demonstrates how climate conditions can compound geopolitical disruption. Companies already managing higher energy, insurance and rerouting costs could face another source of supply-chain pressure if canal restrictions become more severe during late 2026 and early 2027.

Fisheries and energy systems face radically different consequences across the Pacific and South America

Warmer Pacific waters are already disrupting marine ecosystems, particularly along Peru’s coast. Commercial fish species can move into deeper or cooler waters when ocean temperatures rise, reducing catches and changing where fishing fleets need to operate. Peru’s fishing activity fell 31% during the first five months of 2026, highlighting how ocean warming can affect food production and export revenue before El Niño reaches its projected peak.

Energy systems could experience another mixed set of effects. Increased rainfall across southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina can raise river levels and strengthen hydroelectric generation, potentially reducing reliance on fossil-fuel power plants in those regions. Rainfall in some southern Brazilian hydroelectric basins reached 256% of the long-term average during July.

Northern and western Brazil could face hotter and drier conditions, increasing electricity demand while limiting some hydroelectric resources. That imbalance could increase Brazilian demand for Argentine natural gas to supply thermal generation, creating potential commercial opportunities for Argentina while raising energy-security concerns elsewhere.

These contrasting effects reinforce a central feature of El Niño. The phenomenon redistributes weather patterns rather than simply making the entire planet wetter or drier, producing economic winners and losers depending on geography, infrastructure and the timing of rainfall.

World Food Programme warns another 49 million people could face acute food insecurity

The humanitarian consequences could become much larger than the direct economic effects in wealthier agricultural regions. The World Food Programme estimates that the developing El Niño could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027 across 45 countries already considered vulnerable to hunger and El Niño-related weather disruption.

Under that scenario, the number of acutely food-insecure people across those countries would rise from about 225 million to approximately 274 million, an increase of roughly 22%. WFP says the 2015-16 El Niño affected the food security of between 60 million and 100 million people, demonstrating how rapidly droughts, floods and failed harvests can become humanitarian emergencies.

The current event is developing while global food systems are already facing pressure from high energy and fertilizer costs and geopolitical disruptions. Families in poorer countries often spend a much larger percentage of household income on food, meaning even relatively modest increases in staple prices can significantly reduce access to adequate nutrition.

WFP and other humanitarian agencies are consequently emphasizing anticipatory action rather than waiting for harvest failures. Previous experience indicates that early investment in measures such as drought-resistant seeds, water storage, livestock protection and cash assistance can reduce the cost of responding after a crisis has already developed.

Climate change could amplify some impacts even though El Niño is a natural phenomenon

El Niño is a naturally occurring cycle caused by interactions between Pacific Ocean temperatures, winds and atmospheric circulation. During an El Niño event, trade winds weaken and unusually warm surface water expands through the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, altering weather patterns across the globe.

The phenomenon is therefore not itself caused by human-driven climate change. However, it is now occurring on top of a warmer global climate, meaning extreme heat and some associated impacts can reach higher levels than they would have under cooler historical conditions.

A very strong El Niño can also temporarily raise average global temperatures by releasing additional heat from the tropical Pacific into the atmosphere. The interaction between that natural warming pulse and the longer-term rise in global temperatures will be closely watched through the end of 2026 and into 2027.

Forecasters expect El Niño to peak around the end of this year before weakening later in the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring, although considerable uncertainty remains over the precise timing and intensity. NOAA’s next formal monthly ENSO diagnostic update is scheduled for September 10.

Key takeaways from the rising risk of a record-strength 2026-27 El Niño

• NOAA says there is now a greater than 90% chance that El Niño becomes very strong during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.
• The Climate Prediction Center estimates a 69% probability that the October-to-December event reaches historic strength and exceeds previous El Niño events in records dating to 1950.
• Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen more than 2°C above normal in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, while some subsurface temperature anomalies have reached 10°C.
• Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil could receive beneficial rainfall for soybeans, corn and wheat, although excessive precipitation could also cause flooding and crop disease.
• Northern Brazil and other parts of northern South America face higher risks of drought, extreme heat and wildfires as El Niño shifts regional rainfall patterns.
• Low rainfall is already affecting the Panama Canal, where tighter vessel draft restrictions could reduce cargo capacity and increase global shipping costs.
• Peru’s fishing industry is already being affected by unusually warm Pacific waters, with fishing activity down 31% during the first five months of 2026.
• The World Food Programme estimates that El Niño could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity across 45 vulnerable countries by the end of 2027.
• El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle, but its effects are occurring against a background of higher global temperatures and existing geopolitical and food-system pressures.
• NOAA expects the event to continue strengthening through the end of 2026, making the next several months critical for agriculture, humanitarian preparedness, trade and disaster planning worldwide.