In a significant development for Haryana politics, the 2024 Assembly elections witnessed a 61% voter turnout across the state, marking a pivotal moment in its political landscape. According to exit polls, the Congress party, led by former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, appears poised to unseat the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after a decade of dominance.

Exit Poll Predictions Favor Congress

As per multiple exit polls, Congress is set to make a strong comeback, potentially winning between 44 to 62 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. Pollsters from Republic Matrize, Dainik Bhaskar, and People Pulse predict a substantial lead for Congress, while the BJP, which has governed the state for the last 10 years under the leadership of Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, is expected to secure only 18 to 32 seats.

Notably, regional players such as the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) are predicted to struggle, with both parties potentially being limited to a handful of seats. The JJP, which played kingmaker in 2019 by aligning with the BJP, appears to have lost its momentum as exit polls suggest it may win only 1 to 5 seats.

Voter Turnout Insights and Political Stakes

The overall voter turnout of 61% reflects a strong engagement from the electorate. Mewat led with the highest turnout at 68.28%, while Gurugram recorded one of the lowest at 49.97%. The stakes were high for both Congress and BJP, with Congress hoping to capitalize on the anti-incumbency sentiment, while the BJP aimed for an unprecedented third consecutive term. Early voter turnout statistics show strong rural participation, traditionally a stronghold for Congress.

Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda, seen as the frontrunner for the Chief Minister’s position, remains confident about the party’s return to power. However, within the Congress camp, leaders like Kumari Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala have also expressed interest in leading the state if the party wins.

Anti-Incumbency Wave Hits BJP

Exit polls have indicated that the BJP’s decade-long rule in Haryana might be coming to an end, largely due to a growing wave of anti-incumbency. Key election issues, including unemployment, rural distress, and inadequate infrastructure development, have contributed to dissatisfaction among voters. Congress has capitalized on this by presenting itself as the party that will bring change and revitalization to the state.

In contrast, BJP leaders, including Chief Minister Saini, remain optimistic about their performance. Saini dismissed Congress’s claims of internal discord within the BJP, maintaining that the ruling party would still perform well in urban regions like Gurugram, despite lower voter turnout there.

What’s Next?

The final results will be declared on October 8, 2024. If exit polls are accurate, Congress could sweep into power, reversing the political tide after ten years of BJP rule. The party’s success could also reflect broader national trends as India prepares for the 2024 general elections. Meanwhile, the BJP may find itself in a challenging position, needing to rebuild its political strategy to stay relevant in Haryana.

The 2024 Haryana Assembly elections mark a critical moment of change for the state. With Congress on the verge of regaining control and the BJP facing the consequences of anti-incumbency, Haryana’s political dynamics could shift dramatically in the coming days. As all eyes turn to the final vote count on October 8, the implications of this election could resonate far beyond the state, influencing national politics in the lead-up to the 2024 general elections.

  Bhupinder Singh Hooda, BJP, Congress, Gurugram, Haryana, Haryana Assembly Elections 2024, INLD, JJP, Mewat, Nayab Singh Saini