GlobalData’s defining moment: Will it go private under KKR and ICG’s £1.4bn proposal?

GlobalData Plc, as we know, had recently confirmed it is evaluating preliminary takeover proposals from Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR) and Intermediate Capital Group (ICG), potentially paving the way for a strategic pivot that could take the £1.4 billion London-listed data analytics firm private. The offers, currently non-binding and conditional, provide shareholders with a cash option or the opportunity to retain unlisted equity in a privatized version of the firm.

The proposals have placed GlobalData at the center of the latest private equity push into the UK’s mid-cap tech sector. Amid subdued public market valuations and heightened investor appetite for digital infrastructure, GlobalData has emerged as a prime target. The board has until May 28, 2025 to respond, with speculation intensifying around whether CEO Mike Danson, who holds a 59% controlling stake, will greenlight a deal or steer the company toward an independent path.

Why Are Private Equity Firms Targeting GlobalData?

GlobalData’s appeal lies in its recurring-revenue analytics business model, high EBITDA margins, and vertically integrated research delivery across industries including healthcare, TMT, consumer goods, energy, and financial services. In 2024, the company reported £286 million in revenue and £54.9 million in pre-tax profit, reflecting healthy YoY growth and operating leverage.

The company’s strategy of bundling proprietary datasets with industry expertise and AI-enabled insight tools has positioned it at the forefront of subscription-based business intelligence. Its plans to move from the AIM to the London Stock Exchange main board with aspirations for FTSE 250 inclusion added further momentum to its institutional re-rating prior to the takeover bid.

In this context, the conditional bids from KKR and ICG fit a growing trend where IP-rich, capital-light firms are being scooped up by private equity players seeking digital monetization opportunities. KKR’s track record of investing in data and software assets—including Ensono, Internet Brands, and Epicor—underscores its sector familiarity, while ICG has increasingly pivoted toward hybrid and structured equity investments in information-led businesses.

What Do the Offer Structures Involve?

The offers, while not yet firm under the UK Takeover Code, reportedly value GlobalData around £1.4 billion, implying a 30–35% premium to its undisturbed share price. The proposals also allow shareholders to choose between an all-cash exit or a rollover into unlisted equity, granting flexibility to both near-term liquidity seekers and long-term believers in the company’s growth under private ownership.

The May 28 deadline under Rule 2.6(a) requires both KKR and ICG to either announce a binding offer or step away. No exclusivity has been confirmed, leaving room for competitive bids or further negotiations before the window closes.

How Has the Stock Reacted to the Bid Speculation?

Following confirmation of takeover talks on April 30, GlobalData shares surged as much as 35.9% intraday, trading on elevated volume and triggering technical breakouts above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages. As of May 27, the stock closed at 188.00 GBX, showing mild retracement from its recent high but maintaining most of its gains.

Institutional trade data indicates heavy buy-side flows from FIIs, particularly U.S. and EU-based funds running event-driven or M&A arbitrage mandates. Meanwhile, some UK-based DIIs appear to have booked partial gains, reflecting risk management practices as the deadline approaches.

This bifurcation in flows has created a layered sentiment field, where short-term speculative buying coexists with cautious long-term portfolio management. Analysts currently tag the stock as a “Speculative Buy”, pending clarity on final offer terms and Danson’s response.

What Is CEO Mike Danson’s Role in the Deal?

A critical hurdle for the deal remains Mike Danson, the founder and CEO of GlobalData, who controls 59% of the company’s equity. His position gives him de facto veto power over any buyout attempt.

While no public statement has been issued by Danson, market watchers believe that any successful transaction will require alignment with his long-term strategic vision. Industry insiders speculate that unless the bidders offer meaningful post-deal operational autonomy or performance-linked incentives, the board may lean toward independence.

Danson’s past commitment to long-term organic and acquisition-led growth—coupled with his history of resisting undervaluation—suggests he may hold out for terms exceeding market norms if he’s to part ways with control.

Is a Competitive Bidding War Possible?

Given GlobalData’s attractive positioning and recurring revenue metrics, analysts have not ruled out the possibility of a third-party interloper or strategic buyer entering the fray. Global peers such as Gartner, S&P Global, and private equity-backed data aggregators have previously shown interest in expanding capabilities through bolt-on acquisitions.

With more than $3 trillion in global PE dry powder and the relative undervaluation of UK tech, the conditions are ripe for competitive tension, particularly as the analytics sector becomes central to digital transformation across industries.

What Happens If No Firm Offer Emerges by May 28?

If KKR and ICG do not proceed with a formal offer, and no extension is granted by the UK Takeover Panel, the stock could correct toward its pre-announcement levels near 160–165 GBX. However, given the underlying strength of GlobalData’s balance sheet, earnings profile, and forward guidance, such a decline may be technical rather than fundamental.

A rejected offer could even reignite momentum around GlobalData’s main-market uplisting, bolstering its appeal to institutional buyers and reinforcing management’s confidence in its standalone valuation thesis.

What Is the Broader Trend Behind These Takeover Bids?

This event is not occurring in isolation. The past 24 months have seen a flurry of UK tech and data firms acquired by foreign capital, reflecting a combination of Brexit-linked valuation discounts, weaker GBP exposure, and global appetite for digital ecosystems.

Deals like Blue Prism, Aveva, Darktrace’s delayed bid, and Dechra Pharmaceuticals are all part of a broader de-equitization wave sweeping through London’s mid-cap tech and life sciences landscape.

GlobalData’s potential delisting would mark another inflection point in UK’s capital market structure, where intellectual property-rich firms find more valuation upside—and operational flexibility—away from quarterly scrutiny and in the arms of private capital.

Forward Outlook: What Should Investors Expect Next?

In the days ahead, institutional and retail investors will closely monitor whether KKR or ICG proceed with a binding offer, or whether a competitive counterbid emerges. Danson’s stance, the proposed governance structure under private ownership, and any updated valuation disclosures will be pivotal in shaping shareholder sentiment.

If a deal is accepted, analysts expect GlobalData to become a platform play for future bolt-on acquisitions, deeper AI integration, and expansion into adjacent data services. If the bid fails, the company could pursue FTSE 250 inclusion and potentially unlock better valuation through broader market access.

Either path—private or public—signals that GlobalData’s value is now widely recognized by global capital, and its future trajectory will likely serve as a bellwether for UK mid-cap tech in the current cycle.