Nvidia stock rockets to record high amid AI frenzy: Is the next market shake-up coming?

Nvidia’s stock has surged to new highs for the first time in four months, buoyed by the unwavering demand for AI technologies and the strong momentum of its next-generation Blackwell GPU. On Monday, Nvidia’s share price reached an intraday high of $139.41, nearing its all-time peak of $140.76, which was previously set in June. This increase reflects growing investor optimism around the company’s positioning in the artificial intelligence market, as major cloud providers are ramping up their capital expenditure in what is widely being dubbed as an “AI arms race”.

Wall Street analysts have been quick to reaffirm Nvidia’s valuation, citing a combination of competitive advantages such as its extensive installed base and growing software offerings. Citi analysts recently said Nvidia remains the leader in the AI accelerator market, with GPU sales to major hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google expected to double this year. With these factors in play, Nvidia’s stock price has almost tripled in value in 2024 alone, and the company’s market capitalization has risen to $3.386 trillion, inching closer to surpassing Apple’s $3.516 trillion, currently the world’s most valuable company.

AI Demand: The Key Driver

The surge in Nvidia’s stock can largely be attributed to the increased demand for AI-related chips and services. The company’s GPUs remain essential for training and inference in artificial intelligence models, and their dominance is projected to continue. Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell GPU, priced at about $500,000, has garnered substantial attention. Wall Street analysts have pointed out that the high price point should positively impact Nvidia’s gross margins, alleviating previous concerns regarding profitability. Wells Fargo analysts noted that the price of Nvidia’s DGX B200 system is over 40% higher compared to previous models, reinforcing its market position amid strong demand from cloud providers and data centers.

Bank of America analysts underscored the current “AI arms race,” where hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet have been pushing their capital expenditure higher to integrate advanced AI capabilities. This trend directly benefits Nvidia, as its products continue to be at the heart of many AI deployments. In addition, Goldman Sachs recently raised its price target for Nvidia to $150, citing an increasingly secure competitive moat around the company due to its large customer base, innovation capabilities, and robust software ecosystem.

Locked-In Customers: The ‘Prisoner’s Dilemma’ Effect

The concept of customers being “locked in” has also played a role in Nvidia’s stellar performance. Analysts have likened the situation to a ‘prisoner’s dilemma’, where major tech companies continue to invest in Nvidia’s products to stay competitive, despite the development of custom silicon chips within these organizations. Nvidia’s advanced GPUs, which excel in performance benchmarks for AI training and deployment, have effectively locked these customers into the ecosystem, limiting the success of internal hardware alternatives.

Nvidia’s continued innovation and massive investment in data center-level improvements have given the company a unique edge in an increasingly competitive sector. Analysts from Citi stated that custom silicon, while suited for large-scale hyperscalers, is unlikely to replace Nvidia’s GPUs, given their versatility and ability to support expansive AI infrastructure. These factors contribute to Nvidia’s ongoing dominance in the AI market, underscoring its significant advantage over emerging competitors.

Market Sentiment and Future Projections

Investor sentiment around Nvidia remains highly positive, with a majority of analysts maintaining a “buy” rating for the stock. The company’s upcoming third-quarter earnings report in November is expected to provide further insights into the performance of its latest products, particularly the Blackwell GPU. Investors are watching closely to assess Nvidia’s ability to maintain supply in the face of surging demand, as lead times for its latest GPUs are already extending to a year.

Nvidia’s stock movements reflect the broader trend of rising interest in AI technologies and their applications. With a market valuation that has propelled it to become the world’s second-largest company, Nvidia is inching closer to surpassing Apple’s market cap. Analysts believe that continued strong earnings and sustained demand for AI solutions could help Nvidia achieve this milestone.

With strong Wall Street backing and a continually expanding market presence, Nvidia’s stock appears poised to maintain its upward trajectory, reflecting the company’s ongoing success in the AI and semiconductor sectors. As Nvidia approaches its next earnings announcement, all eyes are on the company’s ability to meet supply demands and continue its record-breaking ascent.