With India cutting ties, Pakistan fires back: Major treaties suspended after Pahalgam attack

Why Did Pakistan Respond to India’s Measures After the Pahalgam Attack?

Following the deadly terror strike in the Pahalgam region of Jammu and Kashmir, India took a series of decisive steps aimed at sending a strong message to Pakistan, which it held responsible for facilitating the attack. The response from Pakistan, announced after an emergency session of its National Security Committee, indicates a calculated and high-stakes attempt to match India’s diplomatic and strategic posture. Pakistan’s top security and civilian leadership met for hours in Islamabad to chart a course of action, culminating in a decision to replicate India’s measures almost symmetrically. This included suspension of major bilateral accords, closure of airspace, and cessation of trade—actions reflecting a significant hardening of diplomatic resolve.

What Triggered This Latest India-Pakistan Standoff?

The immediate cause of the current escalation was a terror attack in Pahalgam, a town in the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, in which 26 civilians lost their lives. Indian authorities swiftly blamed the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba for the attack, prompting the Indian Cabinet Committee on Security to enact punitive measures. These included the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, halting the issuance of medical visas to Pakistani citizens, closing the Attari-Wagah border, and expelling all Pakistani military personnel and diplomats posted in India. These were positioned as necessary countermeasures intended to signal India’s unwillingness to tolerate cross-border terrorism.

How Has Pakistan Responded to India’s Diplomatic Offensive?

Pakistan’s National Security Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, responded by initiating reciprocal steps. Chief among them was the announcement to suspend the 1972 Simla Agreement, which had been a cornerstone of bilateral peace processes for over five decades. The Simla Agreement, signed following the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, laid the framework for peaceful resolution of disputes, including the status of Kashmir. Its suspension marks a dramatic departure from previous diplomatic norms and has raised alarms within international policy circles. In addition, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian carriers and froze all existing trade arrangements with India. These actions not only mirror India’s response but also signal a broader deterioration of bilateral engagement.

What Role Does the Indus Waters Treaty Play in This Conflict?

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank, has escalated the crisis significantly. This treaty governs the shared use of six rivers between the two countries, with Pakistan reliant on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) for agricultural and municipal needs. By freezing treaty mechanisms, India has introduced uncertainty into a critical area of regional water security. In response, Pakistan declared that any unilateral move by India to divert or alter water flows would be interpreted as an act of aggression. Analysts have warned that water—long considered a neutral and technical issue in the conflict—could now become a frontline concern in Indo-Pakistani hostilities.

What Are the Broader Geopolitical and Security Implications?

This episode underscores the volatility of India-Pakistan relations and the speed at which they can devolve following acts of violence. The involvement of high-profile diplomatic channels and the suspension of foundational agreements such as the Simla Accord highlight the extent of mistrust and breakdown in communication. With both countries being nuclear-armed, international observers have expressed deep concern. The United Nations, United States, and several European governments have issued statements calling for de-escalation and a return to dialogue. The deterioration in bilateral ties also comes at a time when South Asia is grappling with economic uncertainty, rising inflation, and regional security challenges, including unrest in Afghanistan and tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

How Does This Compare to Past Indo-Pakistani Crises?

Historically, India and Pakistan have navigated a complex relationship marked by war, skirmishes, and intermittent peace efforts. The 2001 Indian Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and the 2019 Pulwama bombing all resulted in similar diplomatic fallouts. What makes the current situation unique is the comprehensive nature of the retaliatory measures taken by both sides. Unlike previous crises where backchannel diplomacy often mitigated the fallout, this time both nations appear entrenched in a tit-for-tat posture with few immediate diplomatic openings. The mutual suspension of treaties that had withstood decades of turbulence reflects an unprecedented level of diplomatic hostility.

What Might Happen Next in the India-Pakistan Diplomatic Standoff?

The immediate trajectory of the standoff will likely depend on domestic political dynamics in both countries, international diplomatic pressure, and whether further provocations occur. India’s general election cycle and Pakistan’s ongoing economic challenges could limit the appetite for a prolonged conflict. However, any further incidents—such as skirmishes across the Line of Control or additional terror attacks—could trigger an escalatory spiral. Meanwhile, backchannel efforts by international mediators are expected to intensify, although their success will hinge on whether either side is willing to reconsider its current stance.

Is There Any Room for Diplomatic De-escalation?

Despite the current atmosphere of mutual recrimination, diplomatic off-ramps remain technically available. Regional cooperation frameworks such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), as well as multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, could provide neutral platforms for dialogue. Moreover, global stakeholders, especially those with strategic interests in South Asia, are likely to push for confidence-building measures. However, such efforts will require political will and a sustained commitment to de-escalation, which appears limited at this stage given the entrenched narratives on both sides.

The Pahalgam terror attack has ignited a severe diplomatic crisis between India and Pakistan, resulting in tit-for-tat suspensions of foundational treaties and a chilling of bilateral relations. While such confrontations are not new to the subcontinent, the intensity and scope of current measures set a concerning precedent. The potential for miscalculation, especially in a nuclearised environment, adds urgency to calls for restraint and dialogue. Whether this episode marks a temporary spike in tensions or the beginning of a longer-term geopolitical shift will depend on how leaders in New Delhi and Islamabad choose to navigate the coming weeks.