Willow Project: ConocoPhillips’ Alaska oil development advances toward early-2029 first production

The Willow Project is being developed by ConocoPhillips Alaska in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, on Alaska’s western North Slope. The project sits within ConocoPhillips Alaska’s Western North Slope business, where the company operates federal oil and gas leases including the Bear Tooth Unit area that contains the Willow development.

Willow is designed as a large new North Slope oil project with peak production estimated at up to 180,000 barrels per day. ConocoPhillips moved the project to final investment decision in December 2023 after the U.S. Department of the Interior issued the project’s Record of Decision earlier that year, approving a scaled development based on three core drill sites rather than the five sites initially proposed.

ConocoPhillips reported in its first-quarter 2026 update that Willow had achieved 50% completion after a successful winter construction season. Earlier company guidance had narrowed expected first oil to early 2029, while capital guidance was increased to US$8.5 billion to US$9.0 billion because of inflation and North Slope and marine cost escalation.

Willow matters because it is one of the largest oil projects sanctioned on U.S. federal land in decades, and because it sits at the centre of a difficult policy tension. Alaska wants production, jobs, royalties and long-term North Slope activity. ConocoPhillips wants a major new resource base that can feed existing regional infrastructure. Environmental groups argue the project locks in decades of new fossil fuel output in an Arctic region already exposed to climate change. The 2026 test is no longer only whether Willow can be approved. It is whether a controversial, high-cost Arctic project can be built safely, on schedule and within the revised capital range.

Where is the Willow Project located and what infrastructure is being built?

The Willow Project is located on Alaska’s North Slope in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, commonly known as NPR-A. The NPR-A is a large federally managed petroleum reserve west of the older Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk producing areas, and Willow is one of the most important new developments in that western North Slope region.

The project is tied to the Bear Tooth Unit and the broader Western North Slope area operated by ConocoPhillips Alaska. The company drilled discovery wells in the northeast portion of the NPR-A in 2016, leading to the Willow discovery and later development planning.

Willow is not a single well or small satellite project. It includes drill sites, gravel roads, bridges, pipelines, processing and support facilities, camp infrastructure and connections into the existing North Slope operating system. The approved development adopted three core pads under the Bureau of Land Management’s preferred Alternative E.

The project’s remote Arctic location shapes almost every construction decision. Work must be planned around seasonal access, winter ice-road windows, sensitive tundra conditions, equipment mobilisation, marine logistics, worker housing and strict safety controls. That is why winter construction seasons are central to Willow’s schedule.

The 2025 construction programme included major field work. ConocoPhillips Alaska said more than 2,400 jobs were filled to progress Willow critical scope in 2025, including construction of two bridges, installation of 72 miles of pipeline and the start of year-round Willow camp occupancy. These are not symbolic milestones. They are the infrastructure steps needed to move Willow from sanctioned project to functioning production hub.

Who owns and operates the Willow Project?

Willow is operated by ConocoPhillips Alaska, which is the leading producer and explorer on Alaska’s North Slope. The project is part of the company’s Western North Slope portfolio, where ConocoPhillips Alaska operates assets in the Colville River Unit, Greater Mooses Tooth Unit and Bear Tooth Unit.

ConocoPhillips acquired the first Willow-area leases years before the current development decision, and it announced the Willow discovery after drilling two exploration wells in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. The company later advanced the project through a long federal review, litigation, supplemental environmental analysis and final approval process.

The ownership framing should be handled carefully because older discovery-stage disclosures referred to earlier working-interest arrangements, while current ConocoPhillips Alaska materials frame Willow as a ConocoPhillips Alaska-operated development inside its Western North Slope business. For a project profile, the safest wording is that Willow is operated and being developed by ConocoPhillips Alaska.

ConocoPhillips announced final investment decision for Willow in December 2023. That decision moved the project from permitting and planning into full development, with materials procurement, contracting, fabrication and field construction accelerating afterward.

The company’s role is important because Willow is not only a reservoir development. It is a major execution programme involving Arctic construction, logistics, regulatory compliance, local engagement, worker safety, infrastructure tie-ins and long-term operations.

What is the planned production capacity of the Willow Project?

Willow is estimated to produce up to 180,000 barrels of oil per day at peak. That makes it a major new North Slope oil development and one of the largest U.S. oil projects currently under construction.

The broader resource base has been described by ConocoPhillips and regulators as supporting hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil over the project life. The peak production figure is the most important operating metric for readers because it shows the scale of Willow relative to Alaska’s mature production base.

Peak capacity should not be confused with initial production. The project is targeting first oil in early 2029, after which production will ramp as wells, drill sites, processing systems and export connections come online. Actual production will depend on reservoir performance, drilling execution, facility availability, pipeline reliability, maintenance and market conditions.

Willow also carries strategic importance for the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. Alaska’s North Slope production has declined from historical highs, and new barrels help support throughput, regional employment and the economics of shared infrastructure.

At the same time, the production scale is why the project is so controversial. A field capable of producing up to 180,000 barrels per day at peak can support energy-security arguments, but it also implies substantial lifecycle emissions when the oil is ultimately refined and consumed.

How did Willow move from discovery to final investment decision?

ConocoPhillips announced the Willow discovery after drilling exploration wells in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska in 2016. The discovery formed part of a broader push to develop the western North Slope, where projects such as Greater Mooses Tooth had already shown that NPR-A resources could be brought into production through extended infrastructure.

The federal permitting process became one of the most difficult parts of the project. An earlier approval was set aside after legal challenges, forcing additional analysis by the Bureau of Land Management. The agency later issued a final supplemental environmental impact statement that evaluated alternatives and addressed issues identified by the courts.

In March 2023, the Department of the Interior issued a Record of Decision allowing construction to begin under a scaled approval. The approved project adopted three core drill sites, after regulators declined to approve two of the five sites originally proposed by ConocoPhillips.

ConocoPhillips then took final investment decision in December 2023. The FID was a decisive milestone because it allowed the company to commit capital, advance procurement, mobilise contractors and proceed with field execution.

By 2026, the project had shifted from approval debate to construction delivery. ConocoPhillips’ first-quarter 2026 update said Willow had achieved 50% completion after a successful winter construction season, making schedule execution and cost control the dominant near-term issues.

What are the latest Willow Project updates in 2026?

The latest official completion marker is ConocoPhillips’ first-quarter 2026 update, which said the company conducted a successful Willow winter construction season and that the project had achieved 50% completion. That is the key 2026 status point and should be worded as the latest reported company figure rather than treated as a daily live construction percentage.

The winter construction season is crucial because Arctic projects depend heavily on seasonal access. Tundra travel, ice-road movement and remote logistics must be timed carefully to reduce environmental impact and maintain safe access to the project site.

ConocoPhillips Alaska’s 2025 year-end review gave more detail on the work feeding into the 2026 status. The company said Willow would achieve nearly 50% completion during the winter season and remained on track for first oil in early 2029. It also said the 2025 critical scope included two bridges, 72 miles of pipeline installation and the start of year-round Willow camp occupancy.

The capital picture changed before the 2026 completion update. In late 2025, ConocoPhillips raised Willow project capital guidance to US$8.5 billion to US$9.0 billion, citing general inflation and localised North Slope and marine cost escalation. That reset makes cost control a central part of the project’s 2026 story.

The company’s 2026 update also came alongside broader Alaska activity, including a four-well winter exploration programme and additional NPR-A lease activity. That context matters because Willow is not isolated from ConocoPhillips’ wider North Slope strategy. It is part of a broader effort to sustain and expand production from Alaska’s western oil province.

Which companies and contractors are supporting Willow construction?

Public disclosures do not provide a simple EPC-style list of every major Willow construction package. That matters because large Arctic oil projects often involve a wide mix of direct contractors, service companies, fabrication yards, logistics providers, drilling contractors, local Alaska Native corporations and specialist suppliers.

ConocoPhillips has said Willow will use materials primarily made and sourced in the United States. The company has also highlighted Alaska workforce and contract opportunities tied to North Slope execution.

ConocoPhillips Alaska’s contract workforce materials identify companies such as ASRC Energy Services, Doyon Drilling and NANA Worley within the broader Alaska contractor ecosystem. However, the company does not present that list as a Willow-specific package-award register, so individual Willow contract responsibility should not be inferred unless separately disclosed.

The 2025 construction milestones show the type of contractor work involved. Bridge construction, pipeline installation and camp occupancy require civil construction, pipe fabrication and installation, module transport, road-building, heavy equipment, accommodation services, worker safety systems and environmental compliance.

The safest way to describe Willow’s construction chain is therefore as a ConocoPhillips-led Arctic execution programme supported by U.S.-sourced materials and a broad Alaska and North Slope contractor workforce. That avoids implying contract awards that have not been publicly broken out.

How does Willow connect to Alaska’s North Slope infrastructure?

Willow is important because it adds a large new development to the western North Slope, where existing and new infrastructure can support oil movement, services, workforce logistics and future exploration. The project is part of the expansion of North Slope activity farther west into the NPR-A.

New North Slope projects depend on the Trans Alaska Pipeline System because produced oil ultimately needs a route to market. As North Slope production has declined over time, large new projects such as Willow can help maintain throughput and extend the commercial relevance of the wider system.

Willow also interacts with nearby ConocoPhillips Alaska assets and expertise. The company’s experience at Alpine, Greater Mooses Tooth and other western North Slope developments gives it operational knowledge in remote Arctic logistics, extended road and pipeline systems, winter construction and community engagement.

The project is also linked to future exploration interest in the NPR-A. The federal reserve attracted renewed industry attention in 2026, with major companies bidding for acreage in a lease sale. Willow’s progress can make nearby acreage more attractive because infrastructure and operating knowledge reduce development uncertainty.

This infrastructure logic is central to the project’s value. A large Arctic oil field does not succeed only because oil exists underground. It succeeds if drilling, pads, pipelines, bridges, roads, camps, processing systems and export routes function together across decades of harsh operating conditions.

What regulatory and legal issues shape the Willow Project?

Willow has one of the most contested regulatory histories of any recent U.S. oil project. The project has moved through initial approval, court challenge, supplemental review, a revised Record of Decision and continuing litigation.

The Bureau of Land Management’s final supplemental environmental review considered alternative development scenarios, including a reduced-footprint approach. The approved plan removed some originally proposed infrastructure and allowed a three-pad development. Regulators said this approach reduced the project footprint while allowing development of federal leases.

Environmental and Indigenous-aligned groups continued challenging the approval. In 2025, a federal appeals court declined to vacate the approval but found flaws in aspects of the review and remanded the issue without stopping the project. That means the legal story is more complicated than a simple win or loss for either side.

The project’s regulatory risk is therefore not fully gone. Willow has enough approval to be under construction, but it remains a highly scrutinised project, and further environmental review, permit compliance and legal monitoring remain part of the execution environment.

For investors, contractors, workers and Alaska policymakers, this matters because legal uncertainty can affect schedule confidence. For communities and environmental groups, continuing review is one of the remaining mechanisms to challenge or influence development conditions.

What environmental and community issues make Willow controversial?

Willow is controversial because it is a major new oil project in the Arctic at a time when climate policy is pushing many countries to reduce fossil-fuel dependence. Environmental groups argue that approving large new oil developments conflicts with climate goals and increases lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.

The project is also located in a sensitive Arctic environment. Concerns include effects on wildlife, wetlands, tundra, permafrost, water resources, air quality and subsistence activities. Caribou habitat and the interests of nearby Indigenous communities, including Nuiqsut, have been central to the public debate.

The community picture is not uniform. Some North Slope and Alaska political and economic groups support the project because of jobs, revenue, energy security and local economic benefits. Others oppose or question it because of environmental risk, industrial expansion and impacts on subsistence culture.

ConocoPhillips says the project is located in a petroleum reserve designated for development and is subject to strict environmental protection requirements. The company has also highlighted extensive engagement, including more than 150 in-person meetings with local residents and stakeholders, while the Bureau of Land Management held public hearings across Alaska communities.

That does not end the debate. Willow remains a project where national energy-security arguments, Alaska economic interests, Indigenous community views and climate policy concerns collide. Any credible project profile should reflect that tension rather than frame Willow only as either an economic win or an environmental loss.

How does Willow affect U.S. energy security and oil supply?

Willow affects U.S. energy security because it would add a large domestic oil source at a time when U.S. policymakers continue to balance decarbonisation goals with demand for reliable fuel supply. ConocoPhillips has said Willow can reduce dependence on foreign energy supplies by producing oil from an existing federal petroleum reserve.

At peak, estimated production of up to 180,000 barrels per day would be meaningful for Alaska and visible within U.S. supply, though it would not fundamentally determine national oil balance by itself. Its value is larger for Alaska’s North Slope system than for total U.S. supply.

For Alaska, Willow is particularly important because production decline has long affected state revenue, employment and pipeline throughput. A large new field can support royalties, taxes, contractor activity and long-term operating jobs.

For ConocoPhillips, Willow is a major upstream growth project. It sits alongside the company’s broader portfolio of Lower 48, LNG and international assets, but it has specific strategic value because of its scale, long life and position in an operated U.S. basin.

The project also shows the limits of energy transition politics. Even as renewable energy, electrification and emissions targets expand, oil demand has not disappeared. Willow exists in that gap between long-term climate direction and near-to-medium-term hydrocarbon consumption.

What could limit Willow’s delivery or long-term performance?

The first limitation is Arctic execution risk. Willow depends on seasonal construction windows, remote logistics, cold-weather work, ice-road access, marine transport, worker housing and safety systems. Delays during one construction season can affect later milestones.

Cost is another major issue. The capital estimate has increased to US$8.5 billion to US$9.0 billion, mainly because of inflation and North Slope and marine cost escalation. That revised range increases pressure on ConocoPhillips to maintain schedule discipline and avoid further overruns.

Legal and regulatory risk remains part of the project. Although the approval has not been vacated, court findings and continuing scrutiny mean environmental review and compliance issues can still affect execution or public perception.

Reservoir and production risk also matter. Peak production estimates depend on drilling performance, reservoir deliverability, facility reliability and operating uptime. A project can be built successfully but still underperform if wells, fluids, pressure management or facility systems do not meet expectations.

Oil-market risk is the final major factor. Willow’s economics depend on long-term oil prices, Alaska fiscal terms, operating costs, transport costs and capital discipline. A major Arctic project with high upfront cost is more exposed to market swings than lower-cost, short-cycle developments.

What is the future outlook for the Willow Project?

The future outlook for the Willow Project is constructive from an execution standpoint but politically and environmentally contested. ConocoPhillips has passed final investment decision, advanced field construction, reported 50% completion after the winter 2026 construction season and maintained an early-2029 first oil target.

The next major milestones will be continued pad, road, bridge, pipeline, camp, processing and drilling-related execution across successive Arctic seasons. The project must convert construction progress into commissioning readiness without losing schedule control.

For Alaska, Willow could become one of the most important oil developments of the next decade. It can support jobs, fiscal revenue, pipeline throughput and contractor activity in a state where new large-scale production has become harder to bring forward.

For ConocoPhillips, Willow is a major long-life production project and a test of Arctic project management after a cost increase. If first oil arrives in early 2029 and production ramps toward expectations, Willow could become one of the company’s defining U.S. growth assets.

The project’s long-term controversy will not disappear even if construction succeeds. Willow will remain a symbol of the conflict between energy security and climate policy. In 2026, the practical question is whether ConocoPhillips can deliver a complex North Slope project safely and on schedule. The bigger public question is whether the United States should still be building projects of this scale in the Arctic oil reserve.