Will France swing to far-right? Shocking election could change everything!

In a pivotal moment that could reshape the political landscape of France and by extension, the European Union, French voters have headed to the polls in the first round of a snap parliamentary election. This election follows President Emmanuel Macron‘s surprising call for a vote after his centrist alliance faced a significant defeat in the European elections. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), a party known for its eurosceptic and anti-immigrant stance, is now closer to power than ever, potentially marking France’s first far-right government since World War Two.

The polls opened early at 0600 GMT and will close at varying times across the country, with the first exit polls and seat projections for the crucial second round expected by late evening. The unique nature of the French electoral system, which involves a two-round process, makes it challenging to predict the precise distribution of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. Marine Le Pen has confidently predicted an absolute majority for her party, with 28-year-old Jordan Bardella poised to become Prime Minister if the RN succeeds.

Should the RN secure an absolute majority, it could lead to unprecedented turbulence in French diplomacy. President Macron has vowed to continue his term until 2027, potentially leading to a period of “cohabitation” with radically different world views at the state’s helm. Bardella has indicated his readiness to challenge Macron on global fronts, signaling a potential shift in France’s stance from being a cornerstone of the EU to a confrontational member demanding significant changes, including a rebate on the French contribution to the EU budget.

The RN’s rise to near-power reflects a broader trend of increasing popularity for the far-right in France, challenging the traditional political barriers that have kept them from ascending to national power. Despite efforts to soften its image, including distancing from past antisemitic remarks by Le Pen’s father, the party continues to face criticism for its approach towards Muslims and foreigners.

Vincent Martigny, a political science professor, notes that the split vote, which the RN might benefit from, could be influenced by the level of voter turnout and the dynamics of the second round. Historically, parties and voters opposing the far right have united to block its ascent, but it remains unclear if such unity will prevail in this election.

This election not only tests the resilience of Macron’s centrist policies but also the appetite of the French public for a significant political shift towards the right. As France stands at a crossroads, the outcomes of this election could have profound implications for its domestic policies and its role within the European Union.