Trump’s trade war crushed sorghum sales to China—but U.S. farmers just won’t stop

Why have U.S. sorghum exports to China collapsed?

Sorghum, a drought-resistant grain traditionally used as livestock feed and in Chinese liquor production, has become a flashpoint in the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China. Since President Donald Trump reignited his administration’s protectionist agenda in early 2025—raising tariffs on hundreds of Chinese goods while facing retaliatory measures from Beijing—U.S. sorghum exports have experienced a severe downturn. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, shipments of American sorghum to China have dropped by more than 95% year-over-year during the first quarter of 2025.

The collapse stems from retaliatory duties imposed by China, which raised its tariff on U.S. sorghum to 44%. These penalties effectively priced American grain out of the Chinese market, which had previously accounted for up to 90% of U.S. sorghum exports. With these trade barriers in place, Chinese buyers have turned toward alternative suppliers, notably in South America, while some have increased domestic production. As a result, U.S. grain elevators and storage facilities are now facing growing inventories with few international buyers.

This marks a dramatic reversal from the mid-2010s, when sorghum exports to China boomed following Beijing’s anti-dumping restrictions on U.S. corn. Between 2013 and 2017, U.S. sorghum growers rapidly expanded production to meet Chinese demand, making sorghum a rare agricultural commodity not subject to production quotas or subsidies. Today, that boom has all but vanished.

Why are American farmers still planting more sorghum?

Paradoxically, many American farmers are expanding sorghum acreage in 2025, despite having lost their largest export market. USDA projections indicate that total U.S. sorghum plantings will increase by 4% this year, reaching a two-year high. In states like Kansas and Nebraska—both top producers—some growers are allocating more acreage to the crop than they did during the peak export years.

Several factors are driving this unexpected decision. First, sorghum remains a comparatively low-cost crop to grow. It requires less water than corn and soybeans, making it an attractive choice in drought-prone regions such as western Kansas. Sorghum also has a shorter growing cycle and lower input costs, making it a safer bet in years when weather or economic conditions are unpredictable.

Additionally, farmers may be anticipating domestic use cases that offset export losses. Some ethanol producers have been experimenting with sorghum as a renewable fuel feedstock. Animal feed producers and grain processors are also seeking cost-effective alternatives to corn, particularly as corn prices have surged due to weather disruptions and high global demand. This domestic demand, while not sufficient to replace China’s market entirely, is providing just enough stability for growers to keep planting.

From a crop rotation standpoint, sorghum also plays a role in maintaining soil health, controlling pests, and managing nitrogen levels—factors that contribute to long-term farm sustainability. For multi-crop operations, incorporating sorghum into planting cycles may yield broader agronomic benefits beyond immediate profit margins.

How are current market conditions affecting farmer profitability?

Despite the strategic reasons for planting sorghum, many U.S. farmers are confronting rising financial risks. Domestic sorghum inventories have increased by over 40% year-on-year, creating an oversupply situation that has led to declining prices. With few alternative international buyers stepping in to fill the gap left by China, the domestic market is facing downward pricing pressure.

Corn, in contrast, has benefited from steady global demand and has seen a 5% increase in acreage this year, reaching its highest planting level since 2013. Soybeans are also in strong demand, particularly from Latin American and European importers. Sorghum, however, lacks the pricing power and global liquidity of these more widely traded grains. Without a viable export rebound or large-scale industrial use, farmer profit margins on sorghum are likely to remain thin throughout 2025.

Government support mechanisms—such as commodity subsidies, disaster relief, and crop insurance—may help cushion the blow. However, many producers have expressed frustration over delays in disbursement and uncertainty around future bailout packages. As of mid-April, there has been no firm timeline announced by the White House regarding direct support for sorghum growers affected by the trade dispute.

What are the broader geopolitical and economic implications?

The U.S.-China sorghum dispute reflects a larger pattern of disruption across global agricultural trade caused by politically motivated tariffs. The Trump administration’s decision to revive sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports in early 2025 marked a return to the adversarial trade policy that characterised his first term. This time, the fallout has coincided with broader geopolitical realignments, including China’s deepening trade relationships with Brazil and Russia, both of which are aggressively expanding agricultural exports.

For the U.S., the sorghum standoff is a cautionary tale about dependency on a single export market. China’s near-monopsony on U.S. sorghum once seemed like an economic advantage. But the abrupt withdrawal of that demand has exposed vulnerabilities in American farm policy and trade diversification efforts. If Beijing builds long-term supply agreements with alternative producers, U.S. sorghum growers could find themselves permanently locked out of a once-booming market.

There are also political ramifications domestically. Many sorghum-producing states are Republican strongholds, and farmers were among the most vocal supporters of Trump’s previous election campaigns. As economic pressures mount, however, some are rethinking their alignment with policies that have undercut their financial stability. While many still support broader goals of trade fairness and economic nationalism, there is growing unease about the short-term costs of such confrontational strategies.

Can the U.S. sorghum sector find new growth pathways?

Industry groups are now pushing for diversification of export markets to reduce reliance on any one trading partner. Countries in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and Thailand, have been identified as potential growth markets due to their expanding livestock and aquaculture industries. Meanwhile, efforts are also underway to boost sorghum’s profile in food innovation, including gluten-free grain applications and sustainable packaging material.

Technological innovation could also help reposition sorghum as a bioeconomy crop. Research institutions are exploring its potential in climate-resilient farming systems, carbon sequestration, and biomass-based manufacturing. If successful, these applications could offer new revenue streams for farmers and reduce the crop’s historical volatility linked to geopolitics.

At the same time, policymakers face mounting pressure to deliver coherent support frameworks that balance trade policy with domestic economic resilience. Trade liberalisation alone may not reverse the trend unless accompanied by incentives to develop alternative value chains. Without proactive steps, U.S. sorghum risks becoming a casualty of a broader struggle between protectionist ambitions and global market realities.