Tensions rise as NATO dances around Ukraine’s membership timeline

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has lashed out at NATO leaders over what he termed “absurd” delays in their decision on Ukraine’s membership timeline, despite their consensus that the nation’s future lies within the alliance.

Zelensky’s sharp criticism comes in the wake of the ongoing conflict, which Ukraine perceives as its deterrent against Russian aggression, intertwined with its NATO bid. Despite this, the current war has only complicated Ukraine’s journey towards NATO membership, raising concerns over the potential direct involvement of NATO in the conflict and risking military confrontation with Russia.

According to the communique from the NATO Heads of State and governments who took part in the Vilnius meeting on July 11, 2023, Ukraine will become a member of the alliance once the allies agree and the conditions are met. Zelensky expressed his dissatisfaction with the lack of a specific timeframe and the vague language concerning Ukraine’s invitation conditions. He also argued that NATO’s stance inadvertently encourages Russian invasions.

Before the summit, Zelensky expressed his disapproval of the unclear timeframe for Ukraine’s invitation and membership. He asserted that this vagueness offers a “window of opportunity” for Ukraine to be exploited as a negotiation tool with Russia and labelled such uncertainty as a sign of weakness.

While NATO’s Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, acknowledged Zelensky’s concerns, he emphasized that Ukraine needs to triumph in its war with Russia before discussing membership. He reminded that previous NATO accessions didn’t have set timelines and were condition-based. He further assured that NATO had never sent a stronger message of support for Ukraine.

However, despite a general agreement on Ukraine’s NATO future, disagreements persist among the 31 NATO members on the specifics of Ukraine’s path to membership. Some members, including the United Kingdom and several Eastern European countries, are advocating for stronger language expressing support for Ukraine’s membership.

Stoltenberg indicated that NATO had dropped the requirement for Ukraine to fulfill a Membership Action Plan (MAP), a preparatory mechanism established in 1999, thus removing a significant obstacle on Ukraine’s path to NATO membership. He reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to choose its security arrangements and stated unequivocally that Ukraine’s future is with NATO.