Saia, BioNTech, and AppFolio stocks plunge amid trade war fallout

Why Did the U.S. Stock Market Crash on April 25, 2025?

Wall Street endured a brutal session on April 25, 2025, with major U.S. indices tumbling sharply after a convergence of negative catalysts triggered widespread selling pressure. Chief among them was the Trump administration’s unexpected announcement of sweeping tariffs, which slapped new import duties ranging from 10% to 20% on goods from China, Mexico, and the European Union. Markets were already fragile following weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP growth figures for the first quarter, which showed expansion slowing to just 1.1% annually compared to estimates of 1.9%.

In a speech delivered at the Chicago Economic Club the same day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to maintaining elevated interest rates until inflation stabilises sustainably below 2%. His remarks dashed hopes for any near-term monetary easing, intensifying recession fears across asset classes.

Historical parallels were quickly drawn to the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war, when escalating tariffs led to deep corrections in cyclical sectors like manufacturing, transport, and semiconductors. Analysts warned that the combination of trade barriers, slowing growth, and restrictive monetary policy could create a prolonged headwind for U.S. corporate earnings.

Institutional data from Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage revealed that net exposure to U.S. equities fell by over 2.7% on April 25 alone, representing the sharpest single-day deleveraging since the March 2020 COVID crash.

Which Stocks Suffered the Most and Why?

Summit Therapeutics Inc. was the worst performer of the session, with shares plunging 36.06% to close at $23.47. Despite an impressive 504.77% rally over the preceding year, fueled by pipeline optimism around its oncology assets, Summit was heavily shorted as risk appetite collapsed. Analysts from Jefferies flagged Summit as “one of the most crowded speculative longs,” making it particularly vulnerable during a liquidity squeeze.

Saia, Inc. collapsed by 30.66% to $245.63, underscoring the freight and logistics sector’s acute sensitivity to tariff-induced disruptions. With supply chain operators facing higher input costs and weaker volumes, trucking firms like Saia and Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., which fell 7.65% to $146.74, faced mounting earnings pressures.

In technology, AppFolio, Inc. dropped 18.17% to $192.02. Rising interest rates have dented real estate investment, directly impacting demand for AppFolio’s property management software solutions. Meanwhile, semiconductor giant Intel Corporation fell 6.70% to $20.05 after issuing guidance suggesting second-quarter revenue could decline 8–10% year-on-year amid tariffs on chip manufacturing inputs.

Healthcare stocks also endured heavy losses. BioNTech SE declined 15.36% to $102.02, despite reporting strong growth in its oncology pipeline. Biohaven Ltd. fell 15.21% to $19.84, hurt by renewed concerns over funding risks in a tightening capital markets environment. Amarin Corporation plc slid 6.71% to $10.43 as competition in the cardiovascular therapeutics market intensified.

Insurance and financial stocks joined the rout. Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. dropped 16.33% to $419.99, while Erie Indemnity Company fell 11.47% to $361.85. Analysts cited the risk of rising loss ratios and slower premium growth amid economic uncertainty. Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. retreated 6.80% to $64.85, with investors rotating out of smaller specialty insurers into larger, diversified financials.

Telecom major T-Mobile US, Inc. fell 11.22% to $232.77. Management recently flagged softer mobile subscriber growth, and higher equipment costs could further pressure EBITDA margins. Consulting and insurance giant Aon plc fell 8.00% to $335.85, dragged down by expectations of weaker advisory revenues from corporate clients.

China-exposed stocks were battered. Pony AI Inc. dropped 7.40% to $7.01, impacted by regulatory risks and potential decoupling pressures in autonomous vehicle development. HUTCHMED (China) Limited fell 7.18% to $14.61, reflecting fears over FDA review slowdowns for cross-border drug approvals.

Logistics and transportation stocks continued to slump. XPO, Inc. lost 7.04% to $96.42, while Canadian logistics firm TFI International Inc. dropped 5.55% to $79.84. Tariffs on industrial goods and automotive parts are expected to directly hit freight volumes in North America.

Financial and fintech companies also saw sharp pullbacks. Eastern Bankshares, Inc. declined 6.46% to $14.77 amid concerns over rising credit defaults, while online brokerage Futu Holdings Limited fell 6.43% to $87.85, hurt by negative sentiment toward Chinese tech-linked stocks.

Centene Corporation, a major player in Medicaid services, fell 6.32% to $57.69 amid uncertainty around government healthcare budgets. Eastman Chemical Company slid 6.16% to $75.84, reflecting weakness in specialty materials demand across automotive, construction, and consumer sectors.

Rare earth producer MP Materials Corp. fell 6.15% to $24.41 despite longer-term optimism about U.S. supply chain reshoring. Software services provider SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. declined 6.12% to $72.69, as weaker asset management and enterprise IT spending weighed on projections.

Consumer discretionary stocks rounded out the list of major losers. Skechers U.S.A., Inc. fell 5.35% to $47.79, pressured by concerns that higher costs of living will depress non-essential spending over the coming quarters.

How Do Institutional Flows Reflect Market Sentiment?

April 25 saw one of the largest rotations into cash and Treasury bonds year-to-date. Goldman Sachs’ flow desk reported that hedge funds were net sellers across all major sectors, particularly in industrials (net -3.2%), semiconductors (net -2.7%), and biotech (net -2.4%). Meanwhile, mutual funds lifted cash allocations to 7.4%, signalling a defensive repositioning not seen since late 2022.

Moreover, FactSet data indicated that short interest rose sharply in high-beta names, with biotech, SaaS software, and small-cap financials seeing the largest spikes.

What Historical Comparisons Offer Context for the Selloff?

Market historians compared the April 25 crash to previous episodes of tariff-induced stress, most notably the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade war, when semiconductor, freight, and industrial stocks underperformed the S&P 500 by 12–15% over six months. Similarly, during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic uncertainty and trade disruption triggered broad declines across cyclicals and credit-sensitive sectors.

Unlike 2018, however, today’s backdrop features persistently high core inflation, restricting the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease aggressively. This increases the risk that trade tensions could push the economy into a stagflationary environment — low growth combined with high inflation — historically a toxic combination for risk assets.

What Future Risks and Opportunities Should Investors Watch?

Looking ahead, analysts expect continued volatility. Morgan Stanley strategists forecast a 10–12% decline in S&P 500 EPS for full-year 2025 if tariffs are not rolled back by mid-year. Bank of America revised its year-end S&P 500 target lower to 4,450 from 4,800, citing weaker earnings growth and multiple contraction risks.

However, opportunities may emerge selectively. Defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare services, and consumer staples are expected to outperform, especially if economic data deteriorates further. Meanwhile, depressed valuations in certain freight and insurance names could attract strategic M&A interest later in the year, particularly from cash-rich corporates seeking to consolidate market share at discounted prices.

On the policy side, traders will closely monitor upcoming G7 meetings for signs of coordinated tariff negotiations, which could act as a potential catalyst for market stabilisation.