‘Naive and dangerous’: Bayrou slams idea of replacing US with China as Trump rocks global trade

French Prime Minister François Bayrou delivered a stark warning on Friday amid growing tensions over U.S. tariffs, asserting that the belief China could supplant the United States as the European Union‘s primary trade partner was both “naive” and “dangerous.” His remarks, made during a local event in France, echoed a broader concern within European leadership circles that the shifting U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump has introduced unprecedented volatility into global economic relations. Bayrou urged EU member states to maintain unity and not fall into what he described as a geopolitical trap by seeking economic refuge in China.

Bayrou’s statement comes as global markets react to the Trump administration’s unpredictable tariff policies. The U.S. president’s latest move—a 90-day suspension of tariffs imposed on several countries—has stirred both relief and anxiety among trade partners. While this suspension opens a temporary window for dialogue, European leaders are increasingly concerned about the erratic nature of the decisions coming from Washington.

What prompted Bayrou’s warning about the China-EU trade relationship?

Bayrou’s remarks appear to be a direct response to both the broader trade war climate and recent overtures from Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a separate diplomatic exchange on Friday, told Spain’s Prime Minister that China and the European Union must jointly oppose what he called “unilateral acts of bullying.” The language was widely interpreted as a pointed criticism of Donald Trump’s trade strategies. By calling for closer EU-China collaboration in defending globalisation, Xi was signaling China’s readiness to deepen economic ties with Europe, even as relations with the U.S. deteriorate.

Bayrou, however, expressed deep scepticism of this pivot toward China. From France’s perspective, replacing the United States with China as a principal trade partner is not merely a logistical or economic decision—it is a strategic realignment with significant implications for Europe’s geopolitical autonomy. Bayrou stressed that the United States, despite current friction, remains Europe’s long-standing ally in trade, defense, and shared democratic values.

How has Trump’s tariff policy triggered new uncertainty in global trade?

The French Prime Minister’s comments come amid a wider backlash to U.S. President Donald Trump’s increasingly protectionist trade policy. In recent weeks, the White House has imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports, raising the rate to 125%, and then temporarily suspended tariffs on imports from other allies including EU countries. The decision to pause some tariffs for 90 days has not alleviated concerns in European capitals, where leaders view the policy shifts as unpredictable and destabilising.

Bayrou referred to the dual shocks of tariff implementation and suspension as successive “earthquakes” that disrupt international trade expectations. French President Emmanuel Macron, weighing in earlier the same day, echoed this sentiment. Macron described the 90-day tariff halt as a “fragile pause” that merely postpones rather than resolves tensions. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Macron noted that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy requires Europe to prepare for both negotiation and confrontation, depending on how events unfold.

What’s at stake for the European Union in this escalating trade rift?

For the European Union, the stakes in this shifting global trade dynamic are high. While the EU has long relied on strong transatlantic trade with the United States, it has also cultivated relationships with China, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, consumer electronics, and automotive parts. However, this balancing act is becoming harder to manage as the U.S.-China rivalry deepens, pulling Europe into the crossfire.

Bayrou’s cautionary stance reflects a broader hesitancy within the EU to rely too heavily on China, which many European policymakers view as an economic partner but also a systemic rival. The European Commission has previously labelled China both a cooperation partner and a strategic competitor. Given Beijing’s state-driven economic model, lack of market reciprocity, and ongoing concerns over intellectual property theft and human rights issues, deeper economic integration with China could expose the EU to significant political and economic risks.

Moreover, Bayrou’s position reinforces the message that European cohesion is more vital than ever. In times of external pressure, the EU’s ability to coordinate a unified response—whether through common tariffs, strategic autonomy in technology, or coordinated supply chain management—will define its leverage on the world stage.

Could this situation reshape long-term global trade alignments?

The ongoing trade tensions have brought a fundamental reassessment of global trade partnerships. For decades, the post-World War II economic order was shaped by the Bretton Woods institutions and U.S.-led trade liberalisation. The Trump administration’s approach, marked by unilateral tariffs and aggressive deal-making, marks a departure from that model and has triggered what analysts are calling a “de-globalisation” trend. Instead of relying on expansive free trade networks, countries are now pursuing regional blocs, trade defence instruments, and nearshoring strategies to reduce dependence on volatile partners.

France’s position, as articulated by Bayrou and Macron, underscores the need for the European Union to chart its own trade path—one that is resilient, diversified, and strategically autonomous. While China offers short-term trade opportunities, especially amid U.S. protectionism, Bayrou suggests that a long-term pivot away from the United States would carry significant risks, not least the erosion of shared democratic norms that underpin transatlantic cooperation.

How are financial markets responding to the trade policy shifts?

Markets have been highly sensitive to developments in tariff policy. In Europe, major indices such as the CAC 40 and the DAX have recorded weekly losses as investors gauge the impact of continued tariff volatility on export-heavy sectors. Automotive, luxury goods, and industrial manufacturing—key pillars of France and Germany’s economies—are particularly vulnerable to external shocks in trade.

U.S. equity markets have experienced similar volatility. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have fluctuated sharply in response to tariff announcements, suspension news, and diplomatic statements. Analysts warn that without a clearer policy roadmap, the instability will persist, prompting companies to delay investment decisions and reassess global supply chains.

At the same time, the 90-day pause has created a moment of relative calm, giving room for potential trade negotiations between the U.S. and its allies. However, as Bayrou and Macron have indicated, this calm may be short-lived unless there is a fundamental reset in the U.S. approach to international trade.

What role will the EU play in shaping the future of trade policy?

As one of the world’s largest trading blocs, the European Union is not merely a reactive player in the global trade system—it has the capacity to shape it. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has previously indicated the EU’s willingness to engage in tariff-free trade negotiations with key partners, while also warning that the bloc will defend its interests through countermeasures if provoked.

With Bayrou’s statement, France is reasserting its leadership role in this strategic conversation. His remarks align with a broader call from Brussels for a more robust EU trade doctrine—one that is values-based, multilateral where possible, and firmly grounded in European unity. Whether through new digital trade rules, stronger investment screening, or carbon border taxes, the EU is positioning itself as a stabilising force in an increasingly fractured global economy.

Bayrou’s message ultimately served not only as a caution against embracing China as an alternative to the U.S., but also as a rallying cry for solidarity across Europe. In his view, it is only through coordinated, principled, and strategic engagement that the EU can navigate the uncertain terrain of 21st-century trade politics.