Israel intensifies airstrikes in southern Lebanon, breaching ceasefire amid renewed tensions

In the early hours of Thursday, May 29, 2025, Israeli airstrikes targeted multiple locations in southern Lebanon, including a high-precision drone strike in the Deir al-Zahrani area, killing Mohammad Ali Jammoul, a senior Hezbollah commander. The operation marks a direct violation of the 2024 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire agreement and has sparked fears of a broader regional flare-up. According to the Israeli military, the strike was in response to repeated projectile attacks launched from Lebanese territory, which they attribute to Hezbollah’s rocket unit.

The incident occurred shortly after dawn, as Jammoul was reportedly en route to morning prayers. Lebanese media and local officials confirmed that his vehicle was struck by an unmanned aerial vehicle. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said in a post-strike statement that the commander was “actively involved in launching attacks and rebuilding Hezbollah’s southern operational infrastructure.”

This escalation comes amid increasing border instability, following weeks of low-intensity conflict between Israeli and Hezbollah forces near the Blue Line—a UN-demarcated boundary line separating the two countries.

Why Did Israel Strike Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon?

The strike follows sustained exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah throughout May 2025, particularly along the disputed Shebaa Farms region and surrounding territories. The Israeli military has accused Hezbollah of launching armed drones and projectiles toward northern Israel in what it claims are violations of the November 2024 ceasefire.

Israel’s official position, relayed by government spokespersons in Jerusalem, maintains that the airstrike was a legitimate defensive response targeting an individual directly responsible for attacks on civilian populations and IDF personnel. The Ministry of Defense characterized the operation as “a necessary preemptive measure against an imminent threat,” though no imminent rocket launch was verified at the time of the strike.

In Lebanon, the act has been widely condemned. Hezbollah-affiliated media described the targeted killing as an “assassination” and claimed that the commander was operating within the terms of the ceasefire. The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a formal complaint to the United Nations, describing the action as “a grave breach of Lebanese sovereignty.”

What Was the 2024 Israel–Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement?

The 2024 ceasefire agreement, brokered in November by the United States and France, aimed to prevent escalation following the brief but intense border clashes in October that year. Under the agreement, Hezbollah was to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River and refrain from hostile activity near the border. Israel, in turn, agreed to pull its troops from Lebanese territory and reduce surveillance flights over the south.

However, both sides have repeatedly accused each other of non-compliance. Hezbollah has reportedly maintained clandestine military infrastructure south of the Litani, while Israel retains military presence in at least five points near the Blue Line, including Kfar Shouba and Al-Ramieh. UNIFIL, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, has confirmed persistent ceasefire violations by both parties in its recent monitoring reports.

How Has the Region Responded to the Strike?

The United Nations has issued an urgent call for restraint, warning that the recent Israeli strike may push the region toward a full-scale conflict. UNIFIL, whose peacekeepers operate in the impacted zone, stated that the situation is the most volatile since the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah war. A spokesperson for the mission said, via indirect attribution, that UNIFIL was “actively engaging both parties to de-escalate tensions and avoid another war.”

In Beirut, the strike has inflamed political divisions, particularly given the power Hezbollah holds within Lebanon’s fractured government. The caretaker prime minister has called for an emergency cabinet meeting, though Lebanon remains without a sitting president and faces growing international pressure to restore state functionality.

Meanwhile, regional governments have responded cautiously. Iran has condemned the strike and vowed that Hezbollah “will respond at a time and place of its choosing,” while Saudi Arabia issued a more neutral statement urging both sides to “de-escalate and return to negotiated terms.” The United States has not directly commented on the legality of the airstrike but stated that it “supports Israel’s right to defend itself” while also emphasizing the importance of maintaining regional stability.

What Are the Risks of Escalation?

The precision nature of the strike, coupled with Israel’s explicit acknowledgment of responsibility, represents a shift away from the plausible deniability that has characterized past IDF actions in Lebanon. By eliminating a mid-level operational commander, the move risks triggering a retaliation cycle not only in Lebanon but across the broader ‘Axis of Resistance’ network involving Syria, Iraq, and Gaza-based factions.

Security analysts from the Carnegie Middle East Center and the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv have warned that this may signal a deliberate Israeli campaign to dismantle Hezbollah’s leadership structure south of the Litani. At the same time, Hezbollah’s leadership is under pressure to respond forcefully, risking a renewed 2006-style war that neither side appears to fully desire.

Israeli intelligence agencies are reportedly preparing for retaliatory rocket attacks or cross-border incursions in the coming days. Military analysts suggest that Hezbollah may attempt to strike infrastructure or border surveillance posts in northern Israel without overtly triggering full-scale war.

How Are Civilians Affected?

Civilian anxiety is on the rise in both Southern Lebanon and Northern Israel. In Lebanon’s Nabatieh and Tyre governorates, residents have reported drone activity and aerial surveillance over villages, prompting evacuations in some border communities. Local municipalities have opened temporary shelters in anticipation of further strikes.

On the Israeli side, towns such as Kiryat Shmona and Metula remain under partial lockdowns, with schools closed and civil defense instructions updated. Rocket alarms were briefly triggered on the evening of May 30, though no direct hits were reported. The IDF Home Front Command has instructed northern residents to remain alert and near bomb shelters for the next 72 hours.

Future Outlook and Diplomatic Options

The immediate diplomatic outlook remains unclear. While a Security Council session has not yet been convened, diplomatic sources in New York say France and Egypt may jointly push for de-escalation talks via UN mechanisms. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to issue a formal statement later today.

In the meantime, both Israeli and Hezbollah-aligned media are issuing stark warnings. Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV broadcast eulogies for Jammoul and suggested that “Israel will pay the price.” In Israel, government officials have pledged further strikes if provoked. With both sides appearing publicly inflexible, the risk of miscalculation remains high.