Israel election deadlock leaves Netanyahu ahead but short of majority as Arab parties gain leverage

Israel has emerged from its first national election since the October 7 Hamas attack without a clear governing majority, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of his main rival but facing difficult coalition negotiations that could determine whether he remains in power.

With nearly 86% of votes counted on October 28, Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties was projected to secure 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot was on 48 seats, while parties representing Arab citizens of Israel were projected to win 19, leaving neither principal camp close to the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.

The result represents an unusual combination of strength and weakness for Netanyahu. His bloc has emerged as the largest cohesive political force and he remains caretaker prime minister, but his existing coalition appears to have lost its majority. Eisenkot can argue that voters denied Netanyahu a governing mandate, yet his own path to office would probably require cooperation with Arab parties that some of his potential allies have historically resisted.

The election therefore has not resolved Israel’s political divisions. Instead, it has shifted the decisive battle from the ballot box to coalition negotiations, with President Isaac Herzog eventually expected to ask the political leader he believes has the best chance of assembling a viable government.

Netanyahu emerges with the largest bloc but remains eight seats short of a governing majority

Netanyahu entered the election facing one of the most consequential political tests of his long career. Voters were judging not only his government’s handling of the October 7, 2023 attack but also years of war, the confrontation with Iran, economic pressure, judicial disputes and questions surrounding his leadership.

The count has so far produced a better outcome for Netanyahu than some pre-election polling suggested. His bloc was projected at 53 seats with most ballots counted, giving him an advantage over Eisenkot’s opposition but leaving him eight seats short of the 61 required to govern without additional partners.

That shortfall means Netanyahu cannot simply recreate his previous coalition and continue governing as before. He will need to persuade parties outside his traditional bloc to support him, negotiate some form of broader unity government or remain caretaker prime minister while politicians attempt to avoid another election.

Netanyahu nevertheless retains important advantages. He leads the largest organized bloc, remains in office during coalition negotiations and can present himself as the candidate with the strongest starting position for assembling a government. His political survival after years of domestic controversy and regional conflict is itself a significant result, even though the election did not deliver the parliamentary majority he sought.

Arab parties surge to historic strength and could hold balance of power in the next government

The most important shift may have come from Israel’s Arab electorate. Arab parties were projected to win a combined 19 seats, an unusually strong result that could give them decisive influence over whether Netanyahu or his opponents can ultimately command a parliamentary majority.

Arab citizens make up roughly one-fifth of Israel’s population but have historically exercised less coalition influence than their numbers might suggest. Jewish-majority parties have frequently been reluctant to rely on Arab parties when forming governments, while political divisions within the Arab community have also limited their leverage.

The new parliamentary arithmetic makes that position harder to ignore. Combining Eisenkot’s opposition bloc with all 19 Arab-party seats would theoretically produce substantially more than the 61-seat majority required, but constructing such a coalition would be politically difficult because some opposition parties or potential partners may refuse to participate in a government dependent on Arab support.

Netanyahu faces a different obstacle because his right-wing partners have strongly rejected cooperation with Arab parties. That effectively removes the easiest numerical route to 61 seats and increases pressure on him to attract figures from Eisenkot’s broader opposition camp or pursue a national-unity arrangement.

The outcome has therefore made Arab political representation central to the formation of Israel’s next government even if Arab parties ultimately remain outside the cabinet. Their willingness to support, tolerate or oppose different coalition arrangements could influence whether either major bloc can govern.

Record turnout reflects first national vote since October 7 attack and years of regional war

Turnout reached approximately 77.7%, the highest level in more than two decades, reflecting the extraordinary political stakes surrounding the election. Israelis were voting nationally for the first time since the October 7 Hamas-led assault transformed the country’s security environment and triggered years of conflict across Gaza and the wider Middle East.

Netanyahu campaigned heavily on Israel’s military achievements and his record of confronting Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. His supporters argue that his government rebuilt Israeli deterrence after the October 7 failure and demonstrated that the country could confront several regional adversaries simultaneously.

His opponents focused more heavily on responsibility for the security breakdown that preceded the attack, the political divisions surrounding his governments and the need for a formal reckoning over what went wrong. Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief who lost a son and nephew during the Gaza war, presented himself as an experienced security figure capable of replacing Netanyahu without fundamentally weakening Israel’s defense posture.

The campaign also unfolded against Netanyahu’s continuing corruption trial, which he has repeatedly described as politically motivated. Those domestic issues combined with war and national-security questions to create an election in which voters were effectively deciding whether Netanyahu should continue leading Israel after one of the most turbulent periods in its history.

Eisenkot faces difficult choice over Arab support as coalition negotiations become decisive

Eisenkot’s challenge is that defeating Netanyahu politically may require a coalition structure some opposition parties have previously rejected. His bloc alone remains well short of 61 seats, meaning the opposition would need support from Arab lawmakers or defectors from Netanyahu’s side to create an alternative government.

That could create difficult negotiations among centrist, left-wing and right-leaning opponents of Netanyahu. Parties united by a desire for political change do not necessarily share positions on security, settlements, relations with Palestinians, religion or the role Arab parties should play in governing Israel.

Some opposition figures have already begun arguing that the election result requires a reconsideration of previous resistance to Arab participation. Their argument is straightforward: if Arab citizens elect a substantial parliamentary delegation, excluding those lawmakers automatically makes it considerably harder to replace Netanyahu.

Other politicians remain reluctant, especially those competing for right-wing Jewish voters. A government seen as dependent on Arab parties could face intense political attacks from Netanyahu and his allies, potentially making coalition partners hesitant even when the numbers technically allow an alternative majority.

The negotiations will therefore test whether opposition to Netanyahu is strong enough to overcome ideological differences that have repeatedly prevented his rivals from forming durable governments.

Herzog will eventually decide who gets first opportunity to try forming Israel’s next government

The next formal stage will begin after the vote count is completed and official results are presented. President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the parties elected to the Knesset and ask them which candidate they recommend to serve as prime minister.

Herzog is not required simply to select the leader of the largest party. His task is to identify the lawmaker he believes has the best realistic chance of assembling a government commanding the confidence of at least 61 members of parliament.

Netanyahu’s larger bloc and incumbency could strengthen his claim, but recommendations from smaller parties will be crucial. If the opposition and Arab parties collectively recommend another candidate, Herzog would have to weigh whether that coalition could realistically remain together long enough to form a functioning government.

The process can stretch for weeks as parties negotiate cabinet positions, policy commitments and coalition agreements. Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister during that period, allowing the government to continue operating even without a newly confirmed parliamentary majority.

Failure by both camps could eventually send Israel back to the polls. The country went through repeated elections between 2019 and 2022 after political blocs repeatedly failed to produce stable governing majorities, and the latest result raises the possibility that similar instability could return.

Election outcome could shape Israel’s approach to Iran, Palestinians and relations with Washington

The eventual coalition will carry consequences beyond Israeli domestic politics. Netanyahu has emphasized continued confrontation with Iran and has highlighted his relationship with US President Donald Trump, while members of the opposition have argued for a different approach to some regional and diplomatic questions.

A Netanyahu-led government dependent on his traditional right-wing and religious allies would likely preserve much of Israel’s current security and regional policy. A broader unity arrangement could moderate parts of that agenda, particularly if Netanyahu needs centrist partners to reach 61 seats.

An Eisenkot-led coalition would still be strongly focused on national security but could bring changes involving investigations into the October 7 failures, domestic institutions and Israel’s relationship with Palestinians and Western allies. The exact direction would depend heavily on which parties participated in such a government.

The result also matters in Washington as the Trump administration manages continuing tensions involving Iran, Gaza and the wider Middle East. Netanyahu has developed a close political relationship with Trump, making his continued leadership potentially significant for future US-Israel coordination.

For now, however, those policy implications remain secondary to the arithmetic of coalition building. Israel has voted, but the election has produced no definitive governing majority and no guarantee about who will ultimately emerge as prime minister.

Key takeaways from Israel’s inconclusive 2026 election

• Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 53 seats with nearly 86% of votes counted, leaving it short of the 61 required for a Knesset majority.
• Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc is projected at 48 seats and also lacks a straightforward route to forming a government.
• Arab parties are projected to win 19 seats, giving them potentially unprecedented influence over coalition negotiations.
• Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister and retains an advantage as leader of the largest cohesive political bloc.
• Eisenkot could theoretically assemble a majority with Arab-party support, but ideological resistance among potential coalition partners presents a major obstacle.
• Turnout reached approximately 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades and a reflection of the election’s extraordinary political stakes.
• President Isaac Herzog will consult political parties after final results and choose the candidate he believes is most likely to form a government.
• Coalition negotiations could last weeks and may result in a Netanyahu-led unity government, an opposition arrangement involving Arab support or another election.