Embraer needs up to 151 jet deliveries in H2, but last year shows the target is achievable

Embraer S.A. (NYSE: EMBJ; B3: EMBJ3) may have delivered its strongest second quarter in 16 years, but its unchanged 2026 aircraft targets still require a materially heavier production schedule during the second half. The Brazilian manufacturer delivered 30 commercial aircraft and 74 executive jets during the first six months, for a combined 104 aircraft across the two businesses covered by its annual delivery guidance.

Full-year guidance remains at 80 to 85 commercial jets and 160 to 170 executive aircraft. That means Embraer S.A. must deliver another 50 to 55 commercial jets and 86 to 96 executive jets between July and December, taking the required second-half total to between 136 and 151 aircraft.

At the upper end, H2 commercial and executive deliveries would need to be roughly 45% higher than H1. Even the bottom of the range requires about 31% more aircraft than Embraer S.A. delivered during the first six months. On the surface, that creates a significant execution test. The more reassuring comparison is what happened last year.

How many jets does Embraer S.A. still need to deliver in 2026?

Commercial Aviation delivered 10 aircraft in Q1 and 20 in Q2, leaving 50 aircraft required in H2 to reach the bottom of the 80-to-85 guidance range and 55 required to reach the top. Executive Aviation delivered 29 aircraft in Q1 and 45 in Q2, leaving another 86 to 96 business jets required before year-end.

The production requirement is therefore clearly back-end weighted. Embraer S.A. has completed only 37.5% of the minimum commercial delivery target after half the year, while Executive Aviation has completed about 46% of the midpoint of its annual guidance.

That does not necessarily indicate that the company is behind schedule. Aerospace manufacturing frequently produces heavier deliveries late in the year as aircraft move through final assembly, customer acceptance and handover. Embraer S.A. has also been explicitly working to level production more evenly across quarters, making the year-on-year comparison particularly useful.

Did Embraer S.A. already prove it can handle this H2 production rate?

The strongest evidence comes from 2025. Embraer S.A. delivered 20 commercial aircraft and 41 executive jets during Q3 2025, followed by 32 commercial aircraft and 53 executive jets during Q4. Across those two businesses, that produced 146 second-half deliveries.

That 146-aircraft benchmark sits almost exactly inside the 136-to-151 range required for H2 2026.

The implication changes how the current target should be interpreted. Relative to H1 2026, the required production ramp looks steep. Relative to H2 2025, however, the bottom of this year’s required range is about 7% lower, while the top is only about 3% higher.

Embraer S.A. therefore does not need an unprecedented second half to hit guidance. It essentially needs to reproduce last year’s strong H2 delivery cadence, with modest upside required to reach the top end.

Is Commercial Aviation the tighter execution test?

Commercial Aviation appears to carry the more demanding burden. The business has delivered 30 aircraft through June but requires another 50 to 55 to reach guidance. That means between 62.5% and 64.7% of the full-year commercial target must be delivered in H2.

Yet last year again provides a useful reference point. Embraer S.A. delivered 52 commercial jets during H2 2025, comprising 20 in Q3 and 32 in Q4. Repeating exactly that volume this year would take 2026 commercial deliveries to 82 aircraft, comfortably inside the current 80-to-85 guidance range.

Executive Aviation has a similar setup. Repeating the 94 executive jets delivered in H2 2025 would produce 168 full-year deliveries after the 74 already handed over in H1 2026. That would place Embraer S.A. near the upper end of its current 160-to-170 target.

The guidance math therefore contains an unusually simple benchmark: reproducing last year’s second-half commercial and executive delivery totals would result in approximately 250 aircraft for 2026, almost precisely at the midpoint of the current 240-to-255 combined guidance range.

Why does the delivery test matter after Embraer S.A. raised profit guidance?

Embraer S.A. raised its adjusted EBIT margin outlook to 10.0% to 10.6% and increased adjusted free cash flow guidance excluding Eve to at least $400 million after reporting record Q2 revenue of approximately $2.2 billion. Revenue guidance, however, remains unchanged at $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion, making aircraft delivery execution critical to achieving the sales target.

The company also has demand visibility. Its firm-order backlog reached a record $34.5 billion at the end of Q2, up 16% year over year, while Commercial Aviation backlog stood at roughly $15.1 billion and Executive Aviation at about $7.8 billion. The constraint is therefore increasingly less about finding buyers and more about converting a large order book into completed aircraft at the required pace.

Embraer S.A. shares most recently closed around $71.39 in New York after declining about 3.3% in the August 11 session. The next delivery update could consequently matter as much as the next earnings report because it will show whether the manufacturer is successfully entering the seasonally heavier part of its production schedule.

The headline requirement of as many as 151 H2 deliveries initially looks aggressive after only 104 commercial and executive jets were delivered during H1. Yet the historical comparison provides a more balanced conclusion. Embraer S.A. delivered 146 such aircraft in the second half of 2025. Simply repeating that performance would put approximately 250 commercial and executive aircraft into customers’ hands during 2026, almost exactly where management’s current guidance points.