Santacruz Silver (TSXV: SCZ) Q1 2025 earnings: Revenue up 34%, insider buying and analyst upside boost sentiment

Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. (TSXV: SCZ / OTCQB: SCZMF), the Vancouver-based silver and zinc producer with operations in Mexico and Bolivia, reported a robust financial performance for the first quarter of 2025. Revenues rose 34% year-on-year to USD 70.3 million, driven by strong metal prices and improved cost efficiency, while gross profit expanded dramatically to USD 27.9 million from just USD 0.4 million in Q1 2024. Adjusted EBITDA surged 2,202% to USD 27.5 million.

However, net income declined 93% year-on-year to USD 9.5 million, largely due to a one-time gain recorded in Q1 2024 that was not repeated this year. Despite major outflows—including a voluntary USD 10 million acceleration payment and USD 19 million in tax settlements—Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. closed the quarter with USD 32.5 million in cash and USD 51.7 million in working capital, reflecting strong cash flow generation and balance sheet management.

What drove Santacruz Silver’s revenue growth and margin expansion in Q1 2025

The miner’s revenue growth was supported by higher realized silver and zinc prices and improved operational execution across key assets. Gross profit soared to USD 27.9 million, highlighting significant operating leverage. The reduction in cash cost per silver-equivalent ounce sold to USD 17.84, and a decrease in all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to USD 22.34, underpinned margin improvements.

Cost reductions were led by Bolivian operations, particularly at the Caballo Blanco complex, where underground mining and mill performance delivered major efficiency gains. Additionally, the company adopted a market-based exchange rate in Bolivia under IAS 21, replacing the long-used fixed rate of 6.96 BOB/USD with a more realistic spot average of 12.20 BOB/USD. This change aligned reporting with real economic conditions and enhanced financial transparency.

How asset-level performance influenced Santacruz Silver’s Q1 results

Operationally, Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. processed 471,773 tonnes of ore in Q1 2025, producing 3.69 million silver-equivalent ounces. This included 1.59 million ounces of silver and 20,719 tonnes of zinc. While total silver output was flat compared to Q1 2024, zinc production dropped 9% due to throughput constraints and lower grades at Bolivian mines such as Porco and Caballo Blanco.

In contrast, the Zimapán mine in Mexico demonstrated notable strength, increasing processed ore by 9% and boosting silver-equivalent production by 14%. Zinc output at Zimapán grew 23% year-on-year, supported by early development at the Carrizal mine’s level 960 zone.

Compared to Q4 2024, overall production was down 10%, reflecting seasonal factors and temporary mine sequencing limitations. Nonetheless, management emphasized that these were expected and had already been resolved. The operational focus on higher-silver-content zones helped offset declines in volume.

Why the exchange rate change in Bolivia matters for Santacruz’s financial outlook

A major development in Q1 2025 was the adoption of a floating market-based exchange rate for Bolivian operations. This change replaced the official fixed rate and allowed Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. to better reflect local currency depreciation in its USD reporting.

Under IAS 21 guidelines, the move to a market-based spot rate—averaging 12.20 BOB/USD—brings reporting in line with the true cost of doing business in Bolivia. While this may introduce some volatility in future reporting, it is expected to result in more accurate cost and margin representation and improve investor trust in Santacruz’s financial disclosures.

How analysts and institutions are reacting to Santacruz Silver’s trajectory

Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. has delivered a more than 225% return over the past 12 months, with its stock rising from CAD 0.30 in June 2024 to CAD 0.98 in June 2025. Momentum indicators remain positive, and the stock continues to attract institutional and retail interest.

Analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” rating on Santacruz, with a 12-month target price of CAD 1.30, representing a 27% upside from current levels. TipRanks has recorded a 100% “Positive” news sentiment score, and coverage remains bullish across small-cap mining screens.

Institutional shareholding stands at 10.2%, with key investors including Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF, Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF, and Gold and Precious Metals Fund. Insider ownership is also strong at 7.24%, with Executive Chairman and CEO Arturo Préstamo purchasing 1.05 million shares in February 2025. Insider selling has remained minimal, signaling management conviction in the company’s near-term potential.

What risks investors should monitor in 2025

Despite the strong Q1, Santacruz faces some key operational and financial risks. Zimapán’s AISC increased sharply to USD 34.32/oz due to front-loaded capital expenditures at level 960, which could weigh on near-term margins until productivity benefits materialize.

Commodity price volatility remains a structural concern for silver and zinc producers. A sharp decline in metal prices could reverse recent gains. Additionally, the new exchange rate methodology in Bolivia, while improving reporting accuracy, could create quarter-to-quarter variability in costs and earnings.

Operationally, grade variability in Bolivia and any delay in Zimapán’s ramp-up pose downside risk. Ensuring continued recovery efficiency at the Caballo Blanco and Porco operations will be critical to maintaining cost competitiveness.

What upcoming catalysts could drive Santacruz Silver’s stock higher

Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. is expected to release its Q2 2025 results in early September. Key investors will be watching for updates on throughput gains at Carrizal’s level 960 and further efficiency gains at Bolivian sites.

The company is also expected to benefit from rising silver prices, which have already rallied approximately 26% in 2025. Continued outperformance in this macro environment could provide an additional boost to free cash flow and shareholder value.

Furthermore, institutional inflows and increased analyst coverage may sustain valuation expansion, especially if insider buying continues and Santacruz demonstrates further operational scalability.

Is Santacruz Silver stock a buy, sell or hold in mid-2025?

With its Q1 2025 results, Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. has positioned itself as a mid-tier silver producer with improving cost discipline, strong cash generation, and enhanced transparency. Management has shown clear strategic focus, especially in terms of capital allocation and operational execution.

For existing investors, the stock appears well-positioned to deliver further value, but the sharp run-up in price suggests that a partial trim may be warranted for risk management. For new investors, current levels offer entry into a lean silver miner with analyst-backed upside, albeit with the usual volatility of the commodity sector.

On balance, the stock remains a “Hold” for existing shareholders and a “Speculative Buy” for those looking to benefit from rising silver prices and Santacruz’s operational improvements through the second half of 2025.