Putin’s nuclear warning: What Russia’s new policy means for the world

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a controversial decree altering Moscow’s nuclear doctrine to permit nuclear strikes on non-nuclear states under specific conditions. This policy revision, announced on November 19, 2024, comes as the Russia-Ukraine war entered its 1,000th day, coinciding with escalating military actions on both sides. The Kremlin has defended the move as a response to what it perceives as mounting security threats from the West, particularly in light of the United States’ provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine.

A Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, emphasized that updating Russia’s nuclear policy was “necessary” to address the evolving geopolitical landscape. In indirect remarks, Peskov reportedly conveyed that this adjustment reflects Moscow’s assessment of Western support for Kyiv as a direct threat to Russia’s sovereignty and security.

The decree permits Russia to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state if that state is allied with or supported by a nuclear-armed country. This signals a significant departure from Russia’s previous nuclear stance, which was primarily centered on deterrence and retaliation against direct threats.

A strategic response to Western pressures

The United States’ recent decision to supply Ukraine with advanced long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), has been a critical factor in Russia’s policy shift. These missiles enable Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian territory, a development Moscow views as a serious escalation. The Kremlin’s revised nuclear doctrine is seen by analysts as a calculated move to deter further Western military support for Kyiv.

Political commentators have noted that this expanded nuclear posture aims to dissuade Ukraine’s allies from taking actions that Russia might perceive as existential threats. By lowering the threshold for nuclear engagement, Russia is sending a clear message that it remains prepared to escalate the conflict if necessary.

Global reactions and implications

International reactions to this policy change have been swift and critical. Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles described the decree as “reprehensible,” emphasizing its destabilizing impact on global security. Meanwhile, the European Union’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, characterized the Kremlin’s actions as “irresponsible,” urging Russia to comply with international norms and exercise restraint.

Experts in international relations have warned that this development increases the risks of miscalculation and unintended escalation in the ongoing conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war has already resulted in devastating humanitarian and economic consequences, with millions displaced and critical infrastructure destroyed.

1,000 days of war: an unrelenting crisis

As the conflict marks its grim milestone of 1,000 days, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate. Destruction of key infrastructure, including energy facilities, has left millions of Ukrainians without heat or electricity as winter approaches. International aid organizations are scrambling to provide relief, while the United Nations has called for renewed peace talks to mitigate the growing humanitarian toll.

From a geopolitical perspective, this decree further complicates efforts to broker peace. It underscores the deepening mistrust between Russia and the West, with the nuclear policy shift serving as a stark reminder of the stakes involved in the conflict.

What lies ahead?

The global community now faces the challenge of addressing this escalation through diplomatic and strategic means. Experts suggest that open dialogue and pressure on all parties to uphold international security norms are crucial to preventing further deterioration of the situation. While the Kremlin has justified its actions as defensive, the implications of this policy change are far-reaching, raising concerns about global stability and the potential for a broader conflict.