Lebanon sounds the alarm—Will Israel-Hezbollah conflict explode?

Tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border have escalated sharply after the Israeli military launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. The strikes, which hit multiple rocket launchers and a command centre, were carried out in retaliation for a Hezbollah-led attack on the Israeli town of Metula. In response, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam issued a grave warning, cautioning that the situation could spiral into a broader conflict, pushing Lebanon towards a devastating war.

Salam’s statement underscored the risks posed by renewed hostilities on the southern border. He warned that Lebanon could be “dragged into a new war” if the military confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel continue to intensify. His remarks come amid growing concerns that the ongoing skirmishes could trigger a wider regional conflict, drawing in other actors with vested interests in the region.

What Led to Israel’s Airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon?

The latest escalation was triggered by a Hezbollah-led rocket attack on the Israeli town of Metula, which sits near the border with Lebanon. The attack, which Israel described as a “blatant violation” of previous security agreements between the two countries, prompted an immediate military response.

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed that their airstrikes targeted dozens of Hezbollah rocket launchers as well as a command centre used by the group. According to Israeli Army Chief Eyal Zamir, the military response was necessary to prevent further attacks and to send a clear message to Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. Zamir also reiterated that Lebanon holds responsibility for preventing Hezbollah from launching such attacks from its territory.

How Many Casualties Were Reported in the Israeli Strikes?

Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that two people were killed in the Israeli airstrikes, including a young girl. Additionally, eight others were injured, including two children. The attack took place in the town of Touline in southern Lebanon, an area that has witnessed previous clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces.

The Lebanese health ministry’s emergency unit confirmed the casualties, further amplifying concerns over civilian safety amid the escalating conflict. The deaths have sparked outrage among Lebanese officials, with growing calls for international intervention to de-escalate the situation.

What is Israel’s Stance on the Renewed Clashes?

Israeli officials have made it clear that they see Hezbollah’s actions as a direct threat to Israeli citizens. The IDF stated that the rocket attack on Metula violated long-standing agreements between Israel and Lebanon and warned that further aggression would be met with even stronger retaliation.

Metula Mayor David Azoulai expressed frustration over the renewed violence, stating that the town had been steadily repopulating since the November ceasefire with Lebanon. However, the latest rocket attacks have caused fresh concerns among residents, with some choosing to leave once again. Azoulai stressed that returning civilians could not be expected to live under constant security threats, suggesting that long-term solutions were needed to ensure their safety.

How Do These Clashes Fit into the Broader Israel-Hezbollah Conflict?

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah dates back to the early 1980s, with tensions periodically flaring up into full-scale military confrontations. The most notable of these was the 2006 Lebanon War, which saw a month-long battle between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, resulting in significant casualties and widespread destruction.

Since then, intermittent clashes have continued, with Hezbollah maintaining a strong presence in southern Lebanon despite efforts by the Lebanese government and the international community to limit its military capabilities. The group’s close ties to Iran have further complicated the situation, as Tehran remains a major supporter of Hezbollah, providing both funding and weapons.

Israel, on the other hand, has consistently stated that it views Hezbollah as a direct threat to its security. The Israeli military has carried out numerous airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria over the years, targeting weapons shipments and Hezbollah operatives to curb the group’s military buildup.

What Are the Risks of a Full-Scale War?

The latest exchange of attacks has raised fears that the conflict could escalate beyond isolated strikes and counterstrikes. If Hezbollah intensifies its military operations, Israel may be forced to respond with a larger-scale military campaign, similar to its actions in Gaza against Hamas. Such a scenario could lead to widespread destruction in Lebanon, further destabilizing an already fragile country facing economic and political crises.

Additionally, the involvement of regional powers such as Iran and Syria could further inflame the conflict. Iran, which has been a major backer of Hezbollah, has previously warned Israel against any military actions targeting its allies in Lebanon and Syria. Any direct confrontation between Israel and Iran-backed forces could drag the entire Middle East into a more extensive war.

What Are the International Reactions?

The international community has responded with growing concern, urging both Israel and Lebanon to de-escalate tensions. The United Nations has called for restraint, warning that further violence could lead to “uncontrollable consequences” in the region. Diplomats from multiple countries, including the United States and France, have been engaged in discussions aimed at preventing further military action.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, the reality on the ground remains tense, with both sides showing little willingness to back down. Israel has signaled that it will not tolerate further Hezbollah attacks, while Hezbollah has maintained its stance of resistance against Israeli military actions.

Could Diplomatic Efforts Prevent a Larger Conflict?

While diplomatic channels remain open, the chances of a long-term resolution appear slim unless a broader agreement addressing Hezbollah’s military presence in Lebanon is reached. The Lebanese government has repeatedly stated that it does not control Hezbollah’s military operations, making it difficult to enforce any ceasefire agreements.

For now, the situation remains precarious, with both Israel and Hezbollah engaged in a dangerous cycle of attack and retaliation. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the region descends into a full-scale war or if international diplomacy can successfully defuse tensions before they escalate further.