Is Glencore really ready to sell Kamoto Copper Company in the DRC—and what’s at stake for investors?

Glencore plc (LON: GLEN), one of the world’s largest diversified mining and trading companies, is reported to be in discussions to sell its controlling 75 percent stake in Kamoto Copper Company, a major copper and cobalt mining operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The remainder is owned by state-backed miner Gécamines. According to Bloomberg, with confirmation later from Reuters, the talks have attracted potential buyers including Orion Resource Partners and Rio Tinto, while the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation could also become involved through Orion.

Kamoto Copper Company includes several significant producing assets such as the KOV and Mashamba East open pits and the Kamoto underground mine. Together, these assets make it one of the most important sources of copper cathode and cobalt hydroxide globally, feeding supply chains that stretch from battery makers in Asia to automakers in Europe and North America.

Why is Glencore considering selling its Kamoto Copper Company stake in the DRC right now?

The decision to explore a sale is closely linked to the mounting pressures in the cobalt market. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, which produces more than 70 percent of the world’s cobalt, suspended exports earlier in 2025 to counteract a steep decline in prices. That ban was set to expire in late September, but uncertainty remains about whether it will be extended. For Glencore, this means a significant portion of its cobalt output could remain unsold this year, impacting revenues and cash flow.

The regulatory environment in the DRC is also unpredictable. Over the past decade, companies have faced sudden changes in tax structures, disputes with Gécamines over royalties and debt, and difficulties securing approvals for exports and operations. These challenges increase the risk profile of assets such as Kamoto, making divestment a strategic option for Glencore at a time when it is also looking to streamline its portfolio.

Another factor is the company’s capital allocation strategy. Glencore has been focused on reducing debt, managing costs, and rebalancing its commodity mix away from volatile markets. A sale of Kamoto could release significant cash that might be redeployed toward growth in more stable jurisdictions or returned to shareholders in the form of dividends or buybacks.

How does Glencore’s history in the Congo copper belt explain today’s potential Kamoto sale?

Glencore has a long and often complicated history in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Through Kamoto Copper Company and other ventures such as Mutanda, it has been deeply embedded in the Congolese copper belt. The assets are rich but politically sensitive, and Glencore has faced recurring disputes with Gécamines and the government, including over past debt restructuring and royalty payments.

The volatility of cobalt prices has also left its mark. Periods of booming demand, especially when electric vehicle adoption accelerated, were followed by oversupply and sharp price corrections. These cycles have created uncertainty for producers and investors alike. Glencore has at times shut down operations such as Mutanda when prices fell too low, only to restart when markets improved. The current cobalt export ban by the DRC underscores the fragility of this environment.

Glencore’s broader financial context also matters. In the first half of 2025, the company reported weaker earnings compared with prior years, citing lower coal prices, reduced copper volumes, and weaker marketing performance. It responded with a cost-cutting program worth about one billion dollars, underlining the need to optimize its asset portfolio.

What does Glencore’s stock performance and investor sentiment reveal about the Kamoto sale talks?

Investor sentiment has been cautiously positive since reports of the potential sale emerged. Glencore’s London-listed shares recorded a modest uptick, reflecting hopes that divestment could unlock value, reduce political risk exposure, and strengthen the balance sheet.

Analysts note that the stock is trading above several technical support levels, including the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which points to underlying market confidence. At the same time, consensus ratings remain mixed between “buy,” “hold,” and “accumulate,” highlighting the uncertainty around whether a deal will actually materialize, and at what valuation.

Institutional investors and fund managers are watching closely but are not yet making significant moves. The lack of a formal sale process or indicative pricing has kept most foreign institutional investors on the sidelines. For now, sentiment leans toward holding positions while awaiting clarity. The prospect of a successful divestment could tilt sentiment more bullish, especially if Glencore commits proceeds to debt reduction or shareholder distributions.

Who are the reported buyers of Glencore’s Kamoto stake and what do they bring to the table?

The reported buyers represent very different strategic approaches. Orion Resource Partners is a specialist investment firm with a track record in metals and mining finance, while Rio Tinto is one of the largest mining companies globally with extensive copper operations. The possible involvement of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation adds a geopolitical dimension, potentially tying the transaction to broader supply chain security goals for critical minerals.

If a deal advances, the structure will need to address valuation of the asset under cobalt market volatility, ongoing regulatory uncertainties, and obligations tied to local communities and environmental performance. The DRC government and Gécamines will have a decisive role in any transaction given their stake and influence.

What financial risks and rewards could Glencore face if it exits Kamoto Copper Company?

Kamoto is one of Glencore’s largest sources of cobalt, a metal critical to battery manufacturing and the broader energy transition. By selling, Glencore would forgo future profits from this strategic resource. However, it would also reduce its exposure to one of the riskiest mining jurisdictions in the world and gain immediate liquidity at a time when global commodities markets remain unpredictable.

The risk of underpricing the asset is real, particularly if cobalt prices remain depressed. There is also the possibility of government intervention, which could delay or derail a transaction. Reputational risk is another consideration, given the heightened focus on responsible sourcing of cobalt amid concerns about child labor and environmental practices in the DRC.

For Glencore, the financial calculus rests on whether the value realized in a sale outweighs the risks of continued ownership under current conditions.

How might a Kamoto Copper Company sale reshape global copper and cobalt supply chains?

Any change of ownership in Kamoto Copper Company would reverberate through global supply chains. The DRC dominates cobalt production, and Kamoto is a cornerstone of that output. A divestment could be interpreted as a signal that major producers are less willing to shoulder the risks of operating in the country. That perception alone could tighten supply expectations and support prices, even before any actual production changes.

Copper, while less concentrated geographically, would also be affected. Kamoto contributes meaningful volumes of copper cathode to international markets. For buyers, the opportunity to secure a dual copper-cobalt producer is strategically attractive, but it also brings exposure to the same risks Glencore is considering exiting.

What does the Kamoto sale mean for Glencore’s future strategy and investor outlook?

Looking ahead, analysts expect Glencore to move cautiously. A formal sale process may be launched if buyers indicate strong interest at valuations acceptable to the company. Should a transaction close, Glencore is likely to prioritize debt reduction and possibly increase shareholder returns, consistent with its strategy of balancing growth with financial discipline.

For investors, the stock remains a complex proposition. On the one hand, Glencore offers diversified exposure to multiple commodities and has a strong marketing business that generates consistent earnings. On the other, its heavy presence in high-risk jurisdictions like the DRC introduces volatility that competitors such as Rio Tinto or BHP largely avoid.

At present, the consensus view is to hold or accumulate, with some analysts suggesting that the stock could present a buying opportunity if clarity emerges around the Kamoto sale. Investors will also need to track how the cobalt export ban evolves and whether the DRC extends its restrictions, as this will directly influence valuations.

In the fast-shifting global mining industry, Glencore’s potential exit from Kamoto represents more than just a corporate reshuffle. It reflects the increasing tension between the strategic importance of critical minerals like cobalt and the high risks of operating in jurisdictions where political, regulatory, and social challenges remain acute. Whether the company follows through with the sale or not, the decision will be closely watched by commodity markets, investors, and governments alike, as it could set a precedent for how global miners manage their exposure to the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the years ahead.