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Helios Towers (LSE: HTWS) lifts cash-flow outlook, but capex keeps total FCF negative

Helios Towers has reported record tenancy additions and stronger earnings across its African and Middle Eastern mobile infrastructure portfolio, prompting an upgrade to full-year guidance. However, accelerated capital expenditure has pushed total free cash flow into negative territory despite improving recurring cash generation.

Helios Towers plc (LSE: HTWS), a London-listed independent mobile tower operator serving telecommunications companies across Africa and the Middle East, reported a 13% increase in revenue to US$718.8 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2026. Adjusted EBITDA rose 13% to US$392.2 million, supported by a record 3,435 tenancy additions and improved utilisation of its existing tower infrastructure. Management tightened full-year guidance towards approximately US$535 million of adjusted EBITDA and more than US$235 million of recurring free cash flow. However, discretionary capital expenditure increased substantially, resulting in a total free-cash-flow outflow of US$5.2 million, highlighting the financial tension between accelerating growth and generating surplus cash available for shareholders.

Why are Helios Towers’ tenancy additions accelerating?

Helios Towers reported 35,379 tenancies at the end of September 2026, compared with 31,531 a year earlier, representing an increase of approximately 12%. The company added 3,435 tenancies during the first nine months, exceeding the pace of expansion recorded in earlier comparable periods.

The number of physical tower sites increased to 15,688 from 14,621. Importantly, tenancy growth was faster than site growth, lifting the average number of tenants per tower to 2.26 from 2.16.

That improvement is economically significant because an existing tower can accommodate additional telecommunications equipment without requiring the same level of initial investment as constructing an entirely new site. Additional tenants generate revenue while sharing portions of the infrastructure and operating cost base.

The increase in the tenancy ratio therefore contributes directly to the potential for stronger margins and returns on capital. It also provides an indication that existing network infrastructure is being utilised more efficiently.

Helios Towers operates in markets where mobile network operators are expanding coverage and increasing capacity in response to rising data demand. Telecommunications companies may prefer leasing tower infrastructure rather than owning every site themselves, particularly when capital is also required for spectrum, radio equipment and customer services.

The outsourcing model allows tower companies to invest in infrastructure that can serve multiple customers over extended periods. Its profitability depends on signing additional tenants, maintaining reliable power and connectivity services, and managing the cost of expanding and operating the network.

The latest results indicate that Helios Towers is making progress across those operating requirements, although the economics of individual sites and markets can differ substantially.

How has stronger tower utilisation affected profitability?

Adjusted EBITDA increased to US$392.2 million from US$345.6 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 55% from 54%. Statutory operating profit rose approximately 23% to US$259.1 million.

The improvement reflects greater tenancy density, operating efficiencies and continued expansion of the group’s portfolio. Revenue grew at the same 13% rate as adjusted EBITDA, indicating that higher activity was supporting earnings without a proportionate deterioration in the adjusted cost base.

Power costs remain an important factor because Helios Towers provides power-related services alongside physical infrastructure in several markets. Fuel-price increases can raise both revenue through contractual pass-through mechanisms and the corresponding cost of supplying electricity.

The resulting relationship means revenue growth can partly reflect higher energy prices rather than an equivalent increase in the economic value generated by telecommunications infrastructure. Management’s adjusted margin measures help distinguish those effects, although they must still be assessed alongside statutory earnings and cash flow.

Return on invested capital increased to 14.2% from 13.8% a year earlier. Compared with 13.5% at the end of 2025, the latest figure represents a 0.7-percentage-point improvement.

The increase is encouraging because tower infrastructure requires substantial upfront investment and can take time to reach efficient utilisation. Stronger returns suggest that incremental tenancies are improving the productivity of the group’s installed capital base.

However, maintaining those returns while expanding the network will depend on the cost and future utilisation of newly constructed sites. A tower initially serving one tenant can have a different financial profile from a mature structure accommodating several operators.

Why is total free cash flow negative despite stronger earnings?

Helios Towers reported recurring free cash flow of US$133.7 million during the first nine months, compared with US$121.3 million a year earlier. That represents growth of approximately 10%, supported by higher adjusted EBITDA, although working-capital movements absorbed some of the improvement.

Total free cash flow moved in the opposite direction, declining from a positive US$48.7 million to an outflow of US$5.2 million. The main difference was the increase in discretionary capital expenditure, which reached US$172.8 million from US$72 million.

The additional investment supported record tenancy additions, including 942 new sites during the period. Such expenditure can create valuable long-term infrastructure assets, but it consumes cash before those assets generate their full expected returns.

Helios Towers’ cash-flow reconciliation also included US$41 million of capital expenditure payments deferred under contractual supplier arrangements. Supplier financing can provide useful flexibility in the timing of payments, but it does not eliminate the underlying expenditure obligation.

The relationship between recurring and total free cash flow is therefore important. The recurring measure demonstrates how much cash the established operating portfolio is producing after defined costs, while the total measure incorporates the substantial additional investment required to expand the network.

Investors should not interpret the negative total figure as evidence that the existing business is necessarily failing to generate cash. Equally, the positive recurring figure should not be treated as unrestricted surplus after funding the company’s growth programme.

The quality of future cash generation will depend on whether the new tenancies and towers generate sufficient incremental earnings to justify the additional investment.

How significant is the US$6.2 billion contracted revenue backlog?

Helios Towers reported approximately US$6.2 billion of future contracted revenue, supported by long-term relationships with mobile network operators. Around 98% of that contracted revenue comes from large multinational operators, while approximately 70% is associated with investment-grade customers.

The average remaining initial contract life stood at approximately 6.4 years. This provides substantial visibility into future customer payments and reduces the company’s dependence on continually securing short-term contracts.

However, contracted revenue is not the same as current cash or guaranteed operating profit. Service obligations, power costs, maintenance, financing expenses and customer-specific contractual terms will affect how much of the future revenue converts into cash.

The size of the backlog also needs to be understood in relation to its duration. Revenue expected over several years cannot be treated as though it will be recognised within a single financial period.

Customer credit quality offers an additional source of financial resilience. Investment-grade counterparties may present lower credit risk than weaker customers, but that does not eliminate exposure to currency movements, local regulation or operating conditions.

Helios Towers’ geographical concentration in Africa and the Middle East also creates exposure to different economic, political and currency environments. Contractual protections against inflation and power costs can mitigate certain risks, but they do not remove all financial variability.

The combination of long-term contracts and stronger tenancy utilisation supports the recurring revenue model. Its economic value depends on maintaining service reliability and generating adequate returns after investment and financing costs.

Can Helios Towers deliver its upgraded full-year guidance?

Management now expects approximately 4,000 tenancy additions during 2026, compared with its previous range of 3,500 to 4,000. With 3,435 additions already recorded, the target implies roughly 565 further net additions during the final quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA guidance has been tightened to approximately US$535 million from the previous range of US$520 million to US$535 million. Against the nine-month contribution of US$392.2 million, achieving the annual target implies approximately US$142.8 million during the fourth quarter.

Recurring free-cash-flow guidance has increased to more than US$235 million from US$220 million to US$235 million. The nine-month result of US$133.7 million means the company needs more than US$101.3 million of recurring free cash flow in the final quarter to achieve that objective.

That is a demanding improvement compared with the average quarterly run rate during the first nine months, although cash collections and working capital can be uneven across reporting periods.

Discretionary capital expenditure is now expected to reach US$230 million to US$245 million for the year, compared with US$138 million during FY2025. The increase indicates that management is accelerating investment to capture stronger demand.

Helios Towers has also increased its share buyback authorisation to US$175 million through December 2027 and introduced an interim dividend, expanding its capital-return programme.

The combination of higher investment and shareholder distributions creates a need for disciplined financing. Net debt stood at approximately US$1.82 billion at the end of September, compared with US$1.72 billion at the end of December 2025.

Net leverage was approximately 3.4 times annualised adjusted EBITDA, unchanged from the year-end level but lower than the 3.6 times reported a year earlier. Earnings growth is therefore supporting leverage metrics even as absolute debt increases.

How did Helios Towers shares respond to the results?

Helios Towers shares traded at approximately 227 pence during the 5 November session, around 6.3% above the previous closing price of 213.6 pence. The shares reached an intraday high of approximately 228.8 pence, reflecting positive market attention following the stronger operating results.

The price movement coincided with higher full-year guidance and accelerated tenancy growth. However, the market response should not be interpreted as proof that all future cash-flow or financing concerns have been resolved.

The company is seeking to improve returns from established infrastructure while simultaneously expanding into additional customer demand. Those objectives are complementary if new investment produces attractive utilisation and cash returns, but they compete for near-term financial resources.

Helios Towers has demonstrated that its recurring operating cash generation is improving and its installed network is being used more efficiently. The next decisive evidence will be the fourth-quarter cash-flow outcome and the return generated on the substantial increase in discretionary investment.

What should Helios Towers (HTWS) shareholders know after the Q3 results?

  • Revenue increased 13% to US$718.8 million during the first nine months.
  • Adjusted EBITDA rose 13% to US$392.2 million.
  • The company recorded 3,435 tenancy additions, taking total tenancies to 35,379.
  • The tenancy ratio improved to 2.26 tenants per tower.
  • Return on invested capital increased to 14.2%.
  • Recurring free cash flow rose 10% to US$133.7 million.
  • Total free cash flow declined to a US$5.2 million outflow after higher investment.
  • Future contracted revenue reached approximately US$6.2 billion.
  • Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to approximately US$535 million.
  • The next test is whether fourth-quarter cash generation and tenancy additions support the upgraded targets.

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