GlobalData shares tumble 10% as ICG ends bid talks, leaving growth plan as next big bet

The turbulent takeover saga surrounding GlobalData Plc came to a decisive end late Wednesday as ICG Europe Fund IX GP S.a.r.l., acting on behalf of ICG Europe Fund IX SCSP, formally announced it no longer intends to make an offer for the company. The move, issued as a binding Rule 2.8 statement under the UK Takeover Code, brings to a close all ongoing acquisition discussions, following a similar withdrawal from KKR in late May.

The announcement prompted a sharp sell-off in GlobalData shares, which plunged 10.14% to close at 155.00 GBX on 12 June 2025, erasing a significant portion of the speculative gains that had accumulated since April when buyout rumours first emerged. With both bidders now out, and no firm offer on the table, GlobalData returns to an independent strategic path—anchored around its three-year Growth Transformation Plan and a stated ambition to reach £500 million in annualised revenues by end-2026.

Why did ICG withdraw from the GlobalData acquisition?

According to the 11 June statement, ICG decided not to proceed with a formal offer after weeks of due diligence and exclusive discussions with the GlobalData board. The proposed deal, first disclosed on 30 April 2025, included a cash offer for the company’s full equity base along with an unlisted equity alternative for shareholders. However, no agreement could be reached on final terms, and the board confirmed that talks with ICG had been terminated.

The formal withdrawal now subjects ICG—and any affiliated parties—to Rule 2.8 restrictions, which prevent them from making another approach unless certain specific conditions arise, such as board invitation, a competing offer, or a material change in circumstances.

Industry analysts cite a mix of factors behind the collapse: valuation gaps, structural complexity, and the influence of GlobalData CEO Mike Danson, who controls approximately 59% of the company’s issued capital and was seen as pivotal to any deal outcome.

What does the Rule 2.8 declaration mean for shareholders?

Under Rule 2.8 of the UK Takeover Code, ICG’s statement now binds it and its concert parties from making another approach unless triggered by qualifying events. This effectively rules out any near-term rekindling of discussions and closes the door on a deal-led upside narrative for investors in the short term.

For shareholders who entered post-April in anticipation of a takeover premium, the outcome is a stark reversal. With no suitors remaining, the market re-rated GlobalData back to fundamentals—causing the share price to tumble from 180.50 GBX on 11 June to 155.00 GBX at the close of 12 June, a 17.5 GBX decline representing the worst single-day loss in over a year.

Why did GlobalData shares fall more than 10% after ICG’s exit?

The share price drop reflects investor disappointment and a recalibration of expectations. After rising by over 35% in late April and early May on the back of buyout speculation, GlobalData shares had gradually tapered as KKR withdrew and ICG delays mounted. But the 11 June ICG withdrawal acted as the definitive trigger for event-driven funds and arbitrage investors to unwind their positions.

According to clearing data and broker commentary, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) began exiting late on 11 June in after-hours trading, with sell orders accelerating after confirmation of the 2.8 statement. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) showed limited buying activity on 12 June, opting instead to re-evaluate GlobalData’s long-term standalone case.

The stock reached an intraday low of 143.00 GBX before recovering slightly, suggesting speculative capitulation but some technical support near 150 GBX.

What role did CEO Mike Danson play in the failed bids?

Though not explicitly cited in public filings, industry sources consistently note that Mike Danson’s controlling stake in GlobalData and his preference for operational autonomy were major factors in deterring private equity suitors. Danson, who founded the company and led its transformation from a media-focused business into a recurring-revenue analytics platform, is understood to have rejected valuation terms or governance models that would limit his strategic influence post-acquisition.

His silence throughout the ICG and KKR negotiations was seen by many as a tactical position, signaling openness to talks—but only under conditions that aligned with his long-term vision. The absence of such terms likely led both parties to exit sequentially.

How has GlobalData responded to the breakdown of takeover talks?

In a statement issued alongside ICG’s withdrawal, GlobalData reaffirmed its commitment to its independent growth strategy. The board reiterated confidence in the company’s three-year Growth Transformation Plan, under which GlobalData is targeting £500 million in annualised revenue by 2026. That would represent near-doubling from 2024’s £286 million topline, implying compound growth in high double digits.

The company plans to focus on expanding its subscription base, deepening its AI-enabled platform, and entering new verticals including climate intelligence, regulatory analytics, and enterprise decision automation. The board framed the end of takeover discussions as an opportunity to accelerate those efforts without distraction.

What GlobalData’s failed deal signals about UK private equity trends

The failed bids for GlobalData mark a pause in what had been a flurry of private equity interest in UK-listed data and IP-centric firms. In 2023 and early 2024, multiple firms—including Aveva, Blue Prism, and Dechra Pharmaceuticals—were successfully taken private. GlobalData appeared poised to join that list, especially with both KKR and ICG initially showing strong interest.

However, the dual collapse reflects rising hurdles: UK companies with concentrated ownership structures, limited free float, and strong founder-led governance can prove difficult to acquire—even for global buyout giants with ample dry powder. The GlobalData case may prompt private equity firms to re-evaluate target screening processes and emphasize board chemistry alongside financial metrics.

What’s next for GlobalData?

With M&A off the table for now, GlobalData is expected to resume its long-term capital markets roadmap, which includes a potential uplisting from AIM to the London Stock Exchange’s main market and eventual FTSE 250 inclusion. This could reinvigorate institutional interest and help re-anchor valuation multiples to peers such as RELX and S&P Global.

Analysts say the company must now execute against its £500 million revenue target, deliver consistent margin expansion, and communicate clearly around product innovation and regional expansion. In the absence of deal premium narratives, future re-rating will depend solely on operating performance and capital market confidence.