Georgian Dream secures majority, signaling potential shift toward Russia

Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, appears to have clinched a majority in the parliamentary elections with approximately 70% of precincts counted. Early results reveal a sweeping victory, signaling a controversial shift that could alter Georgia’s relationship with both the West and Russia. The election outcome, while not yet officially confirmed, suggests Georgian Dream’s dominance, a result met with both concern and cautious optimism across the political spectrum. This pivotal election could reframe Georgia’s foreign policy trajectory, as the party is increasingly perceived to be aligning with Russia over Western allies.

Georgian Dream’s decisive lead raises regional stakes

The Georgian Dream party’s strong showing in the recent elections is likely to allow it substantial influence in reshaping Georgia’s policies, potentially advancing closer ties with Moscow. While the party has not explicitly disavowed Georgia’s aspirations for European Union membership, its rhetoric and recent policy decisions have raised alarm among pro-Western advocates. Georgian Dream founder and former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, often accused of maintaining deep connections to Russia, has remained a central figure in the party’s recent rise. Ivanishvili’s influence, many claim, has quietly shifted the party’s stance, edging Georgia away from its pro-European aspirations.

European Union status at risk amid Georgian Dream’s policy changes

Georgia’s path to European Union membership has been turbulent. Despite securing EU candidate status in December 2023, Georgian Dream’s recent actions have complicated its standing. The party’s adoption of a foreign agent law earlier this year, which echoes similar Russian policies, has sparked fierce domestic protests and international backlash. The law mandates that organizations receiving significant foreign funding register as foreign agents, a policy that critics argue undermines civil society and aligns with authoritarian trends seen in Russia. The European Union has openly warned that unless Georgia recommits to democratic values, its accession process will stall, a stance echoed by Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili.

Zourabichvili, who has been a vocal proponent of Georgia’s European integration, has publicly voiced concerns over Georgian Dream’s recent pivot, suggesting that the shift toward Moscow could be a coordinated move. Although she refrained from labeling it a conspiracy, Zourabichvili expressed worry over the country’s democratic direction and argued that aligning too closely with Russia could leave Georgia isolated and vulnerable. As Zourabichvili’s term draws to a close, her recent unofficial visits to European capitals, though unauthorized by Georgian Dream, underscore her attempts to reassure the West of Georgia’s commitment to European values.

Opposition warns of democratic erosion

The opposition parties have rallied against Georgian Dream’s rising influence, expressing fears that the government’s approach could undermine democratic norms and stifle dissent. Many opposition leaders have voiced concerns that Georgian Dream may use its majority to restrict opposition activity, potentially advancing legislation to ban opposition parties that challenge its rule. Despite some public support for Georgian Dream’s pro-peace stance, particularly regarding contested territories like Abkhazia and South Ossetia, many view the party’s rhetoric as a veiled surrender to Russian interests.

Political analysts point to the Kremlin’s history of using influential regional allies to consolidate power in post-Soviet states, particularly those with territorial conflicts, as seen in Ukraine and Moldova. Georgian Dream’s messaging, particularly its tendency to echo Kremlin narratives, has raised suspicions that the party may be aligning itself with Russian political interests, a move that could challenge Georgia’s sovereignty.

A turning point in Georgia’s geopolitical path

Experts agree that the outcome of this election could redefine Georgia’s geopolitical path. The Russian government has indicated it favors Georgian Dream’s resistance to Western influence, praising the party’s steps to legislate on foreign influence and control over civil society. If Georgian Dream consolidates its hold on power, some analysts believe the party could pursue reconciliation with Russia, a move that would further isolate Georgia from Western allies. This potential shift could weaken Georgia’s security and economic stability, especially given the European Union’s warning of paused accession talks.

As votes are finalized, Georgia stands at a critical juncture, facing the prospect of either deepening ties with the West or moving closer to Russia. The Georgian Dream party’s potential majority will undoubtedly impact the country’s foreign and domestic policies, shaping Georgia’s role in the South Caucasus and its relationship with global powers.