Dell vs. HPE vs. Supermicro: Who’s winning the AI infrastructure race in 2025?

Why Are Dell, HPE, and Supermicro Leading the AI Infrastructure Market in 2025?

Dell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE), and Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) are emerging as the top contenders in the booming AI infrastructure space. Each firm has built strategic muscle in designing, delivering, and scaling AI-optimized server solutions for enterprises that now view artificial intelligence as mission-critical.

The demand for accelerated computing, particularly servers powered by NVIDIA‘s GPUs, has surged dramatically across sectors such as finance, healthcare, government, and cloud services. This surge is not only reshaping traditional server economics but also redefining long-term capital allocation strategies among infrastructure providers.

With global enterprise AI spending expected to exceed $300 billion annually by 2027, this segment has become one of the most closely watched battlegrounds in the tech industry.

How Is Dell Leveraging Its AI Server Backlog to Stay Ahead?

Dell Technologies stunned the market in late May 2025 when it disclosed that it had booked $12.1 billion worth of AI server orders during Q1 FY26—surpassing its entire fiscal 2025 AI server revenue. The company further confirmed that its AI server backlog stood at $14.4 billion as of the end of April, reflecting unprecedented customer demand.

This surge is being driven by Dell’s expanding partnerships with NVIDIA and a shift in enterprise priorities toward Blackwell-based GPU systems. Major customers now include Elon Musk’s xAI and hyperscalers like CoreWeave, which are aggressively deploying Dell’s liquid-cooled infrastructure at scale.

In its earnings report, Dell posted total revenue of $22.2 billion for Q1 FY26, up 6% year-over-year. Operating income came in at $1.5 billion, while diluted earnings per share rose 67% to $1.32. The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) generated $9.2 billion, with AI servers accounting for the bulk of the growth.

Dell’s stock surged nearly 30% in May 2025 alone, although it has since cooled slightly amid profit-taking. Institutional data shows that BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity increased their positions during Q1, signaling continued confidence in Dell’s AI-focused pivot.

What Is HPE’s Strategy for Winning in Hybrid AI?

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is taking a differentiated route by focusing on hybrid cloud and AI-as-a-service models. Through its GreenLake platform, HPE aims to offer customers full-stack AI capabilities—ranging from model training to inferencing—while maintaining data sovereignty.

In its Q2 FY25 earnings, HPE revealed it had converted over $1.3 billion in AI system orders, a 40% sequential increase. AI systems now contribute significantly to its Intelligent Edge and Compute segments. Revenue from AI servers is growing steadily, although not yet at the pace Dell or Supermicro are witnessing.

HPE also continues to deepen its co-development work with NVIDIA, with executives citing customer wins in government and life sciences. GreenLake’s AI Ops suite is now being bundled with high-performance servers to enable turnkey deployments for LLMs and generative AI workloads.

On the stock market, HPE shares are up 18% year-to-date. Analysts remain cautious, noting that while HPE’s software margins are improving, hardware growth could lag peers unless it accelerates its fulfillment pipeline.

Why Supermicro’s Vertical Integration Gives It an Edge—for Now

Super Micro Computer has become the fastest-growing server company in the AI arms race. Its revenue in Q3 FY25 rose 19.5% YoY to $4.6 billion, fueled by massive demand for GPU-accelerated platforms. The company offers both liquid and air-cooled systems and is known for its rapid product turnaround, thanks to vertical manufacturing integration.

Supermicro’s aggressive expansion is underpinned by its tight collaboration with NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel. Its Silicon Valley manufacturing campus is undergoing a major expansion to boost output capacity to over $25 billion annually by FY26.

However, governance issues remain a sticking point. Supermicro has faced scrutiny from short sellers over internal accounting practices and auditor resignations. These concerns have led to higher volatility in its stock, which is up more than 100% YTD but has experienced wild intra-week swings.

Despite these headwinds, Supermicro is the only major OEM shipping fully integrated rack-scale AI systems with short lead times—a key competitive advantage in 2025’s AI buildout surge.

What Are the Financial and Institutional Signals Telling Investors?

From a financial standpoint, all three companies are benefitting from the AI infrastructure boom, though their margins and risk exposures differ.

Dell’s ISG operating income was $1.1 billion in Q1 FY26, translating to a 12% margin, while its client solutions group (CSG) saw flattish growth. HPE’s margins remain stronger on software-driven revenue, but its absolute growth is slower. Supermicro’s margins are slightly compressed due to scaling costs, but it remains highly profitable.

Buy-side flows show that institutional investors are rotating into AI infrastructure plays as a long-term bet. Morgan Stanley upgraded Dell to “Overweight” following Q1 results, citing its backlog and execution. JP Morgan maintained “Neutral” on HPE, while Jefferies issued a “Buy” on Supermicro with a target of $1,350, citing rapid revenue expansion.

What’s Next for the Enterprise AI Infrastructure Market?

Analysts expect the AI server market to grow at a 25–30% CAGR through 2028, driven by hyperscalers, government modernization efforts, and private cloud investments. Dell’s pipeline suggests it could double its AI server revenues in FY26 if component supply constraints ease. HPE is expected to deepen its AI software suite and possibly make tuck-in acquisitions to enhance GreenLake. Supermicro is likely to seek strategic partnerships to allay investor concerns over governance while expanding into Europe and India.

Beyond the top three, Lenovo and Cisco are seen as potential challengers, though they currently lack the same AI-focused scale. NVIDIA’s platform partnerships will continue to shape competitive dynamics.

So, Who’s Leading and Who Could Fall Behind?

Dell Technologies appears best positioned in terms of scale, backlog, and customer breadth. HPE is stronger on software and hybrid cloud, which could yield better margins in the long term. Supermicro remains the high-growth disruptor, but its ability to scale responsibly will define its staying power.

The AI infrastructure race in 2025 is not just about shipping servers. It’s about controlling platforms, building partnerships, and delivering integrated solutions at scale. With enterprise AI spending accelerating and multiyear contracts being signed across industries, the winners of this race could define the next decade of enterprise IT.