Can the UK reverse its youth inactivity crisis? Alan Milburn to lead national investigation

An independent investigation spearheaded by former Health Secretary Alan Milburn has been launched by the United Kingdom government in response to a growing national concern: the alarming number of young people who are not in education, employment, or training. The Department for Work and Pensions confirmed on November 10, 2025, that the initiative will directly address what ministers have called a “crisis of opportunity,” with a sharp rise in mental health conditions and long-term illness cited as key barriers to youth participation in the labour market.

Nearly one in eight individuals aged 16 to 24 in the United Kingdom—amounting to close to one million young people—are now considered economically inactive under the NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training) classification. The government has acknowledged that this persistent trend poses serious risks not only to long-term productivity and economic growth but also to the social mobility and life outcomes of an entire generation. This review aims to provide clear, cross-sectoral recommendations to reverse the trajectory.

The independent probe is expected to produce interim findings in Spring 2026 and a final report by Summer 2026. These findings will help guide ongoing policy changes across health, education, skills, and employment frameworks, building on existing initiatives such as the Youth Guarantee and reforms laid out in the Skills for Jobs White Paper.

What are the most significant drivers of youth economic inactivity in the United Kingdom in 2025?

The rise in youth economic inactivity has been closely linked to mental health conditions, neurodevelopmental disorders, and long-term physical illnesses. Government figures show that more than 25 percent of NEET youth now cite long-term sickness or disability as the primary reason for not engaging in work or education. This is more than double the rate reported in 2013 and marks a worrying escalation.

Additionally, the number of young people claiming Universal Credit through the health element or Employment Support Allowance has increased by more than 50 percent over the past five years. Of those claimants, approximately 80 percent report mental health conditions or neurodevelopmental disorders, including anxiety, depression, ADHD, and autism spectrum disorders.

The Keep Britain Working review led by Sir Charlie Mayfield provided further insight into this trend, revealing a 76 percent increase in economic inactivity among 16 to 34-year-olds with mental health issues since 2019. That review also noted that early disengagement from the workforce can cost individuals up to £1 million in lost lifetime earnings. This long-term financial penalty not only diminishes personal opportunity but also contributes to reduced national output and strains on the welfare system.

How will the Alan Milburn investigation be structured and what outcomes are expected?

The Department for Work and Pensions has tasked Alan Milburn with leading an evidence-based, independent review of the root causes of youth inactivity, with a particular emphasis on those living with mental health conditions and disabilities. The review will assess the interaction between health, welfare, education, and employment systems. Rather than focusing solely on systemic data, the inquiry will also feature consultations with young people who have direct experience navigating these challenges.

Alan Milburn has stated that the review will be uncompromising in exposing the shortcomings of current policy and service delivery. He will be supported by a panel of labour market analysts, employers, mental health professionals, and youth advisors to ensure that the recommendations are grounded in practical insight. Importantly, the review will not cover the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) system, nor will it overlap with the broader Timms Review of the disability benefits framework. Instead, Milburn’s work is designed to serve as a targeted investigation into the specific cohort of young people who risk becoming permanently disconnected from work and education before their careers begin.

The outcomes of the investigation will be used to inform broader government plans to enhance the economic participation of young people and ensure that the support systems designed to aid them are both responsive and sustainable.

What current government interventions are under evaluation and how might they evolve?

The government has implemented a range of interventions to curb the rise of youth inactivity, many of which will be evaluated as part of the Milburn review. A £25 million programme to double the number of Youth Hubs across the United Kingdom has already been announced. These hubs are based in accessible community locations such as football stadiums, libraries, and youth centers, and are intended to offer integrated employment advice, skills training, and mental health services.

In parallel, the Department for Work and Pensions has launched eight Youth Guarantee trailblazer pilots across England, backed by £90 million in funding. These pilots are designed to test new approaches to tackling persistent barriers in engagement, coordination, and accountability at a local level.

Another critical component of the government’s strategy is the Foundation Apprenticeship model, which is being expanded to offer new, practical entry routes into skilled work. This initiative is especially targeted at those who might otherwise struggle to access traditional employment pathways.

Additionally, efforts are being made to embed specialist mental health practitioners within schools, improve the overall availability of youth mental health services, and ensure that the national curriculum is restructured to better meet the needs of young people preparing for life beyond formal education.

A job guarantee scheme has also been introduced, offering paid work placements to young people who have been on Universal Credit for 18 months without access to either employment or formal training. This is intended as both a safety net and a launching pad for re-entry into the labour market.

What is the projected economic and social impact if the youth inactivity trend continues?

If left unaddressed, the rising trend of youth inactivity is expected to have a profound and far-reaching economic impact. Experts warn that large segments of the young population may become permanently excluded from the workforce, creating a generation dependent on public welfare with limited upward mobility. This could deepen income inequality, slow economic growth, and place additional pressure on the National Health Service and public welfare infrastructure.

The Department for Work and Pensions has positioned the Milburn investigation as a national imperative that transcends party lines and political cycles. Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Pat McFadden emphasized that the United Kingdom cannot afford to lose a generation to long-term unemployment and social exclusion. He underscored that the ultimate goal is not just about finding jobs for young people, but about creating a future in which they can thrive and contribute to the broader economy.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt echoed these concerns, stating that reducing youth inactivity is integral to improving productivity and addressing the cost of living crisis. Both ministers framed the issue as essential to the long-term fiscal sustainability of the United Kingdom.

How will the investigation influence long-term reforms to the youth welfare and employment ecosystem?

The recommendations from the Alan Milburn review are expected to inform the next phase of the government’s Youth Guarantee policy, which aims to ensure that all individuals aged 18 to 21 are either employed or enrolled in education or vocational training. It will also shape the development of the forthcoming National Youth Strategy, building on the Prime Minister’s recent announcement of an £88 million investment in after-school and youth support services.

By examining systemic inefficiencies across health, skills training, and social support infrastructure, the review will aim to propose reforms that increase institutional accountability, reduce friction in access to services, and create more coherent career pathways for at-risk youth.

The full terms of reference for the review are set to be published on November 11, 2025, and will be made available on the GOV.UK portal and in the Libraries of both Houses of Parliament. Once complete, the final report will provide a strategic blueprint for strengthening the life outcomes of young people in the United Kingdom and ensuring that no one is left behind before their professional journey begins.

What are the takeaways from the Alan Milburn review and government response to rising youth inactivity that policymakers and employers should act on?

• Alan Milburn will lead an independent review focused on youth inactivity, with interim findings due in Spring 2026 and a final report in Summer 2026.
• Nearly one in eight young people aged 16 to 24 in the United Kingdom are currently not in education, employment, or training, equal to close to one million individuals.
• Mental health conditions, neurodevelopmental disorders, and long-term sickness are now central drivers of youth inactivity, with over 25 percent of NEET young people citing long-term sickness or disability.
• Claims for Universal Credit health-related benefits and Employment Support Allowance among young people have risen by more than 50 percent in the last five years, and roughly 80 percent of those on the UC health element report mental health or neurodevelopmental conditions.
• Keep Britain Working analysis shows a 76 percent increase in economically inactive 16 to 34-year-olds with mental health conditions since 2019, highlighting a rapidly worsening trend.
• The review will engage directly with young people with lived experience, employers, health specialists, and labour market experts to produce practical, cross-sector recommendations.
• Existing interventions under evaluation include a £25 million expansion of Youth Hubs, £90 million for eight Youth Guarantee trailblazers, expanded Foundation Apprenticeships, school-based specialist mental health provision, and a job guarantee offering paid placements for eligible young people on Universal Credit.
• Early career disengagement imposes large lifetime costs, with estimates of over £1 million in lost earnings for individuals who remain out of work long-term, and broader productivity and fiscal consequences for the economy.
• The review will not replace the Timms Review of disability benefits and will explicitly exclude the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities system from its remit.
• Findings will be used to shape the National Youth Strategy and further iterations of the Youth Guarantee to improve prevention, re-engagement, and the sustainability of support systems.