Can Botswana’s Kalahari Copper Belt become Africa’s next big copper frontier?

Why investors are paying attention to Botswana’s copper story at a time of global supply deficits

Botswana, long recognised for its diamond wealth and political stability, is beginning to attract fresh attention for an entirely different mineral: copper. The Kalahari Copper Belt (KCB), stretching across Botswana and into Namibia, is emerging as one of Africa’s most closely watched exploration frontiers. With global demand for copper surging on the back of electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and electric vehicles, institutional and retail investors are asking whether Botswana could become the continent’s next major copper hub.

Exploration activity in the region has accelerated, with both junior and major mining companies committing capital to projects. Belararox Limited (ASX: BRX) recently kicked off its maiden drilling program at the Kareng West tenement, targeting copper-silver mineralisation along the D’Kar and Ngwako Pan formations. At the same time, global heavyweights such as BHP and MMG are deepening their presence, reinforcing confidence that the Kalahari Copper Belt may hold world-class resources. Against the backdrop of a tightening copper supply outlook, Botswana is positioning itself as a stable, geology-rich jurisdiction that could offer the next wave of discoveries.

What makes the Kalahari Copper Belt geologically significant compared to the Central African Copperbelt?

The Kalahari Copper Belt is defined by sediment-hosted copper-silver deposits concentrated along the D’Kar and Ngwako Pan formation contact zones. These geological structures bear strong similarities to other Tier-1 copper provinces globally, but with a lower level of historical exploration. This under-explored status creates a sense of discovery potential that investors and geologists find compelling.

The Central African Copperbelt in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo has historically dominated African copper production, but it is increasingly associated with jurisdictional risks ranging from political instability to resource nationalism. By contrast, Botswana offers a unique blend of attractive geology and political stability. The D’Kar Formation is particularly significant because it hosts stratabound copper mineralisation within siltstone and shale horizons, while the Ngwako Pan Formation provides a competent sandstone unit that traps mineralising fluids. This combination creates the conditions for copper-silver accumulations that could be commercially viable at scale.

Industry observers note that while the KCB may not yet rival the Central African Copperbelt in terms of output, the quality of deposits discovered so far suggests it could become a new global copper district in its own right.

Which major players are leading exploration and development in the Kalahari Copper Belt, and what are they committing?

The rising profile of the KCB is not driven by juniors alone. MMG’s Khoemacau copper-silver mine has already been commissioned and is viewed as a long-life, high-quality asset with expansion plans targeting over 130,000 tonnes of copper and five million ounces of silver annually. This project is already demonstrating that Botswana’s copper endowment can move from exploration to production at scale.

BHP has also entered the scene through a joint venture agreement with Cobre Limited, committing up to A$40 million in staged exploration funding. The deal gives BHP the right to earn up to 75% of Cobre’s Kitlanya copper projects, underscoring how seriously the world’s largest miner views Botswana’s copper potential. For investors, BHP’s arrival is a vote of confidence that brings legitimacy to the region.

Aterian, through its subsidiary Atlantis Metals, has expanded aggressively in 2025 by securing three new licences within the belt. This further highlights the competitive scramble to secure ground. Kavango Resources, another active junior, has assembled one of the largest contiguous licence packages in the KCB, spanning more than 6,000 square kilometres. Early drilling by Kavango has already returned portable XRF readings indicating high copper grades, which has added to investor excitement.

For smaller companies such as Belararox, being surrounded by major players is both a challenge and an opportunity. Success in drilling could quickly make a junior explorer a joint venture partner or even an acquisition target.

How is Botswana’s mining policy shaping the future of copper development in the region?

Geology alone does not create mining frontiers; policy frameworks play a decisive role. Botswana has consistently ranked as one of Africa’s most attractive mining jurisdictions, benefiting from decades of diamond-sector governance that built credibility with foreign investors. Transparent permitting processes, a strong rule of law, and relative political stability all add to its attractiveness.

That said, investors are closely watching new legislative proposals that could require 24% local ownership of mines if the government does not exercise its existing 15% free-carried interest option. While such measures aim to increase local participation in resource development, they also introduce a layer of complexity for explorers and financiers. For many institutional investors, the trade-off is acceptable: Botswana’s political stability and infrastructure outweigh the risks associated with local ownership requirements.

Another critical factor is infrastructure. The KCB benefits from road access and proximity to power lines, although significant investment will be required to support large-scale operations. Analysts note that the success of projects like Khoemacau demonstrates that these challenges are surmountable, and they argue that Botswana’s infrastructure base is still superior to many competing African jurisdictions.

What macroeconomic or global trends are setting the stage for a copper boom in Botswana?

The copper market is increasingly defined by structural deficits. Demand is being driven by renewable power projects, electric vehicle manufacturing, and grid expansion. According to international energy agencies, copper demand for clean energy technologies could double by 2035. This creates a strong tailwind for jurisdictions that can bring new supply online.

Botswana’s copper story is unfolding against this backdrop of scarcity. Analysts frequently note that while South American copper giants such as Chile and Peru face challenges including water scarcity, political uncertainty, and permitting delays, Africa offers a diversification option for supply. The KCB, with its combination of geology and governance, is one of the most promising new frontiers.

The global scramble for copper also increases the likelihood of consolidation. Institutional investors believe majors will continue to secure early-stage projects to lock in future supply. In this environment, juniors with quality exploration results could command significant premiums in joint ventures or buyouts.

Can Botswana replicate copper success, and what comes next?

Whether the Kalahari Copper Belt can evolve into Africa’s next copper powerhouse depends on two critical factors: exploration success and scalability. The geology is undeniably prospective, but until more projects advance from drilling into resource definition and feasibility, the belt will remain a frontier play. For now, sentiment remains speculative.

For Belararox and other juniors, the coming months are decisive. Positive drill results could unlock re-ratings, attract joint venture partners, or trigger acquisition interest. Negative or inconclusive results, by contrast, would likely see share prices remain under pressure, reflecting the high-risk, high-reward nature of frontier exploration.

From a sector perspective, Botswana’s combination of geology, stability, and investor interest positions it as a strong contender to diversify Africa’s copper production base beyond the Central African Copperbelt. The potential rewards for successful explorers are significant, but so are the risks inherent in early-stage mineral discovery.

What is certain is that the global copper market is watching. With surging demand and constrained supply, the Kalahari Copper Belt is no longer just a regional curiosity — it is fast becoming a test case for whether Africa can deliver the next wave of world-class copper discoveries in a politically stable jurisdiction.