BJP poised for historic comeback as Delhi exit polls predict AAP’s decline

In a major political development, exit polls for the 2025 Delhi Legislative Assembly elections indicate a strong resurgence for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after nearly three decades out of power. The projections suggest that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has governed Delhi for a decade, may face a significant setback, potentially paving the way for a BJP government in the capital.

What do exit polls reveal about BJP’s chances in Delhi?

Multiple exit polls predict a favorable outcome for the BJP, with estimates suggesting the party could secure between 39 to 49 seats in the 70-member assembly. The AAP is projected to win between 21 to 31 seats, while the Congress, which has been struggling for relevance in Delhi politics, is anticipated to secure one or no seats.

Other pollsters suggest a similar trend, with BJP comfortably leading. However, some surveys indicate a tighter contest, projecting an AAP victory with seat estimates ranging from 44 to 52, contradicting the broader trend favoring the BJP. These varying predictions highlight the uncertainty of exit polls, which have historically failed to accurately predict election results in India.

How has Delhi’s political landscape evolved over the years?

The BJP’s potential return to power in Delhi marks a significant shift in the city’s political landscape. The AAP, which emerged from an anti-corruption movement in 2012, dominated Delhi’s political scene in 2015 and 2020, securing massive electoral victories. Arvind Kejriwal led the party through these two terms, focusing on governance issues such as education, healthcare, and electricity subsidies.

In September 2024, Kejriwal resigned following his release on bail in a corruption case, and Atishi was appointed as the new Chief Minister. The leadership transition occurred just months before the assembly elections, a factor that could have influenced voter sentiment.

What strategies helped BJP gain momentum?

The BJP’s campaign strategy revolved around infrastructure development, pollution control, and improved public safety. The party also focused on aligning Delhi’s governance with the central government, arguing that a unified leadership model would ensure better coordination and efficiency.

Additionally, the BJP introduced a series of welfare schemes aimed at economically weaker sections, including direct cash benefits for women, students, and elderly citizens. These policy-driven initiatives, similar to those that helped the party win recent state elections, were aggressively promoted throughout the campaign.

How has the AAP responded to exit poll projections?

Despite unfavorable exit poll results, AAP leaders remain optimistic. Senior party members have expressed confidence that the final results will defy predictions, citing past elections where the AAP performed better than expected. Party spokespersons dismissed the exit polls, emphasizing that they have historically been inaccurate when assessing AAP’s electoral performance.

The AAP campaign primarily focused on its governance record, highlighting its achievements in education, healthcare, and social welfare. However, with Kejriwal’s legal troubles dominating headlines in the months leading up to the elections, the party faced significant challenges in maintaining its narrative.

What challenges does the Congress party face in Delhi?

Once a dominant force in Delhi politics, the Indian National Congress continues to struggle for relevance. Exit polls suggest that the party is likely to secure between zero and three seats, marking yet another disappointing electoral performance. The Congress, which ruled Delhi for 15 consecutive years until 2013, has been unable to reclaim its voter base since its decline.

What are experts saying about the exit polls?

Political analysts caution that while exit polls provide early indicators, they are not always accurate. In previous elections, exit polls have either underestimated or overestimated party performances, leading to surprising final results.

As Delhi awaits the official results on February 8, 2025, the city stands at a political crossroads. If the BJP’s projected victory materializes, it will mark the party’s return to power in the national capital after nearly three decades. However, if the AAP manages to overturn the exit poll projections, it will reinforce its dominance in Delhi politics.