Apollo Global returns with sweetened $64-a-share offer for Papa John’s—will it finally succeed?

Why Apollo Global’s new $64 bid for Papa John’s signals a renewed push in fast food M&A

Apollo Global Management has reportedly submitted a fresh proposal to acquire Papa John’s International, Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) and take the U.S.-based pizza chain private at a price of $64 per share. The bid, which surfaced within the past week, is the second known offer from the private equity giant in less than four months and comes amid a challenging year for the restaurant industry marked by shrinking margins, inflationary pressures, and shifting consumer demand.

The latest offer values Papa John’s at approximately $2.1 billion and comes after a previous joint bid made by Apollo and Irth Capital Management in June 2025, which had reportedly valued the company just north of $60 per share. Sources familiar with the current deal, as cited by Reuters, indicated that Apollo made the new bid independently, signaling a stronger internal conviction to close the acquisition this time.

While neither Apollo Global Management nor Papa John’s has officially commented on the renewed proposal, the news has re-ignited speculation about a potential go-private transaction that could significantly reshape the competitive landscape of U.S. quick service restaurants (QSRs). Market watchers noted that the offer carries a premium to Papa John’s recent trading levels and could pave the way for a bidding war or activist interventions.

Why is Apollo targeting Papa John’s again in 2025 and what strategic value does the pizza chain offer now?

The timing of Apollo’s renewed interest is notable. Papa John’s has been battling margin compression and weak profitability despite posting modest revenue growth. In its most recent quarterly results, Papa John’s reported a 4% year-over-year increase in revenue to approximately $529.2 million. However, net income for the period dropped nearly 23% to $15.5 million, reflecting the impact of higher ingredient costs and a more cautious consumer environment.

While the pizza chain has improved its digital ordering infrastructure and franchisee relations under recent leadership, growth in its core North American market has plateaued. International expansion has offered some upside, but not enough to offset the softness in its domestic same-store sales. The underperformance has left the stock trading well below its 2021 highs, making it an attractive target for opportunistic private equity buyers like Apollo.

Apollo’s latest proposal also highlights a broader trend in private equity’s renewed appetite for undervalued or underperforming restaurant assets. The U.S. fast food sector, long viewed as recession-resilient, has become a target-rich environment in the wake of pandemic disruptions and ongoing operational volatility. Taking Papa John’s private could allow Apollo to apply operational improvements, rework franchise economics, and focus on international expansion strategies—without the short-term scrutiny of public markets.

How did the stock market react to Apollo’s $64‑per‑share offer and what are investors signaling about deal confidence?

The immediate market response to the deal was sharply positive. Papa John’s stock surged in extended trading hours following the Reuters report, with investors betting that the $64 per share offer could either lead to a successful deal or attract counter-bids from other interested parties. The premium implied by Apollo’s bid represents a significant upside from the company’s pre-bid share price, reviving hopes of a meaningful strategic pivot.

Equity analysts tracking the QSR space noted that while Papa John’s fundamentals remain mixed, the company’s strong brand recognition, tech-driven ordering platform, and global footprint offer turnaround potential under private ownership. Some institutional investors, particularly hedge funds and event-driven strategies, are reportedly increasing their exposure to PZZA in anticipation of either a confirmed deal or a revised offer with higher terms.

However, other investors remain cautious. The restaurant chain’s falling operating margins and higher debt servicing costs raise questions about how much value a buyout firm can extract in a leveraged transaction. The presence of activist investors, who could pressure the board to reject a lowball offer or seek better terms, adds another layer of complexity.

What is Apollo’s broader strategy in restaurant and consumer assets?

Apollo Global Management has long held a reputation for making bold plays in consumer-facing sectors, particularly when market volatility creates valuation mismatches. The firm has experience with restaurant holdings, having previously invested in chains such as Chuck E. Cheese, Qdoba, and others. Its strategy often involves combining operational restructuring with financial engineering to create value post-acquisition.

With a new $64 bid, Apollo appears to be doubling down on this playbook. If successful, the buyout could allow Papa John’s to pivot faster into delivery-first models, grow in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America, and implement tighter cost controls at the franchise level. Insiders suggest that Apollo may also explore portfolio synergies or eventual relisting, depending on post-acquisition performance.

The deal also arrives at a time when private equity firms are flush with dry powder but facing higher interest rates and tighter deal scrutiny. Against that backdrop, the fast food industry—with its reliable cash flows and recognizable brands—offers one of the few defensible plays for private capital. Papa John’s, with its brand equity but underwhelming performance, fits neatly into that thesis.

What potential bidders or regulatory hurdles could still derail Apollo’s $64‑per‑share takeover of Papa John’s?

The lack of a formal agreement means several factors could still derail Apollo’s latest proposal. First, regulatory hurdles could emerge if multiple bidders coalesce or if anti-trust concerns are raised, especially if Apollo looks to merge Papa John’s with any existing portfolio brands. Second, the involvement of activist investors—some of whom may argue that $64 per share undervalues the company—could lead to demands for a higher offer or a full auction process.

There is also the possibility of internal resistance from Papa John’s board, which may be unwilling to cede control without securing strategic concessions. The board’s fiduciary duty to evaluate competing offers could prolong the negotiation window, giving other suitors time to conduct due diligence. In the June 2025 joint bid from Apollo and Irth Capital, no definitive agreement materialized, suggesting the process could still face turbulence.

Furthermore, the restaurant sector is still navigating macroeconomic headwinds. Rising wage costs, slowing consumer discretionary spending, and an intensifying battle for delivery market share could pressure Papa John’s performance in the interim. That may impact both valuation multiples and the attractiveness of the business to other potential buyers.

What are the likely next steps in Apollo’s takeover attempt and how could the Papa John’s deal timeline unfold?

The next phase in this potential acquisition will likely involve extensive due diligence, board deliberations, and possibly the emergence of competing bids or revised terms. If Papa John’s accepts the offer or enters into exclusive negotiations with Apollo, expect a more formal announcement and regulatory filings in the near term. If the bid is rejected or countered, it could ignite a broader strategic review by the company’s board, especially if other private equity firms show interest.

For investors, the most important signals to watch will be insider stock activity, board commentary in upcoming earnings calls, and shifts in institutional ownership patterns. Market volatility may also influence the deal calculus—if Papa John’s share price rises sharply, Apollo may be compelled to either sweeten its bid or walk away.

Regardless of the outcome, the renewed interest in Papa John’s from one of the world’s most active private equity giants suggests that the fast food deal cycle is far from over. Other underperforming or mid-cap restaurant brands may find themselves next on the menu.