Another prime minister gone: Has Macron’s presidency hit the point of no return?

What caused François Bayrou’s fall and why his fiscal plan backfired on Macron’s government

The French political landscape has entered a period of extraordinary volatility after Prime Minister François Bayrou’s centrist government collapsed on September 8, 2025, in a sweeping no-confidence vote that secured 364 votes against the administration and only 194 in favor. Less than nine months after Bayrou was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron to steer France through an intensifying debt crisis, his ouster marks the latest in a string of failed political experiments under Macron’s second term.

At the heart of Bayrou’s downfall was his aggressive €44 billion austerity program, designed to slash public spending and rein in a growing deficit. The proposal sought to freeze a broad spectrum of government outlays, eliminate two public holidays, and cap social security expenditures. Bayrou framed it as an urgent, technocratic response to mounting debt—France’s public debt now sits at over 114% of GDP, with interest payments comprising roughly 7% of total government spending.

But in a deeply polarized National Assembly, the plan alienated both the left and right. Trade unions decried the public holiday cuts as attacks on the working class, while fiscal conservatives argued it would do too little to reform structural imbalances. In what many now call a miscalculation, Bayrou himself requested the confidence vote in an attempt to consolidate legitimacy around the controversial budget proposal. The gamble backfired, leading to the most dramatic toppling of a sitting French government in recent memory.

How many prime ministers has Macron lost and what does it signal about France’s political paralysis?

Bayrou’s exit marks the third such collapse of a Macron-appointed administration in under a year. He follows Gabriel Attal and Michel Barnier, both of whom were unable to secure sustainable legislative support following the snap elections Macron called in 2024. The revolving door at Matignon—the French prime minister’s residence—is now a symbol of the fragmentation that has taken hold of French governance.

The core of the dysfunction lies in the current parliamentary arithmetic. In the 2024 legislative elections, Macron’s centrist alliance Ensemble lost its absolute majority. Attempts to govern through ad hoc coalitions have failed repeatedly, with the left-wing New Ecologic and Social People’s Union (NUPES), the far-right National Rally (RN), and Les Républicains (LR) each staking out divergent positions that make consensus elusive.

Macron’s strategy to restore authority by rotating prime ministers has so far yielded diminishing returns. Each appointment has tried to balance fiscal prudence with political compromise, only to be crushed by opposition from all directions. With Bayrou’s government falling barely nine months into office, Macron is now tasked with appointing a fourth prime minister in less than twelve months—an unprecedented stretch in modern French political history.

What happens next: Can Macron govern through 2027 or is a snap election inevitable?

Despite the domestic chaos, Macron retains control of foreign policy, defense, and presidential appointments under France’s semi-presidential system. He has stated that he has no intention of stepping down and plans to serve out his second term until 2027. However, in practical terms, the president now risks becoming what many political analysts are calling a lame duck, unable to pass meaningful domestic legislation without triggering further backlash.

Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally, wasted no time in calling for fresh elections. Her party has capitalized on the perception of elite dysfunction, and recent polling shows National Rally outperforming Macron’s coalition across multiple regions. Le Pen is betting that another round at the ballot box could deliver her party a plurality—or even a majority—for the first time in French history.

At the same time, centrist and moderate leaders within Macron’s camp are weighing alternatives. A consensus candidate from outside party ranks, such as a technocrat or respected policy expert, could be brought in to lead a temporary caretaker government. This approach, used in the past by countries like Belgium and Italy during gridlock periods, might allow France to keep functioning while avoiding another electoral risk.

Macron’s inner circle is reportedly weighing a shortlist of potential replacements, including figures seen as more pragmatic than ideologically rigid. However, any new appointee would still need to navigate the same fractured legislature that has now rejected three predecessors. The failure of Bayrou—a longtime ally of Macron with considerable centrist credibility—highlights just how narrow the window for maneuver has become.

What are the implications for France’s mounting debt and fiscal credibility in Europe?

The timing of the government collapse could not be worse from a fiscal standpoint. France’s debt trajectory is raising alarm bells in Brussels, where European Commission officials are pushing member states to maintain stricter post-COVID fiscal discipline under the revised Stability and Growth Pact. France’s deficit is expected to hover near 5.1% of GDP in 2025, far above the EU’s 3% target.

Bayrou’s austerity proposal was viewed by many in the European Central Bank and IMF as a necessary corrective to a decade of expansive social spending and crisis-driven stimulus. The failure to push through even moderate cost-cutting measures will likely dent France’s credibility in upcoming Eurogroup meetings.

Investor sentiment is also being tested. French bond yields have begun creeping upward, with 10-year OATs (Obligations Assimilables du Trésor) now trading nearly 20 basis points higher than German bunds—a clear signal of increased perceived risk. Analysts warn that without a functioning government capable of passing a budget, France could be facing rating downgrades or higher borrowing costs heading into 2026.

Complicating matters is a growing chorus within Macron’s camp advocating for an alternative to austerity: a temporary wealth tax estimated to bring in €15 billion annually. While such a measure could offer short-term relief, it risks alienating high-income taxpayers and foreign investors, particularly if framed as a populist substitute for structural reform.

Could France return to coalition governance or are more radical scenarios now likely?

One path forward is a reconfiguration of the current legislature into a national unity coalition. However, trust between parties is in short supply. The Socialists, Greens, and Communists have little incentive to join a Macron-led initiative they believe has ignored social equity in favor of fiscal orthodoxy. Meanwhile, Les Républicains are fractured and reluctant to prop up a president they see as politically weakened.

More radical scenarios include cohabitation—where the president and parliament are led by opposing parties. If a new prime minister from outside Macron’s orbit is nominated and gains support from rival factions, it could usher in a tense power-sharing period. However, given the current gridlock, even this may not yield a workable majority.

The prospect of constitutional reform has also been floated. Some commentators argue that France’s semi-presidential model, which gives broad powers to a president without guaranteeing parliamentary control, is inherently unstable in a fragmented party system. Whether such reform gains traction remains to be seen, but Bayrou’s fall may reignite debate about how the French Fifth Republic is governed.

Is this the end of Macronism as a centrist experiment?

The collapse of Bayrou’s government is not merely a policy failure—it is a reputational collapse for Macron’s brand of centrism. What began in 2017 as a disruptive alternative to France’s left-right dichotomy has now devolved into a series of tactical retreats and governing crises. Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly in 2024, hoping to reset the legislative landscape, instead fractured it further. That fracture now defines his presidency.

Observers across Europe are drawing parallels to the final years of other reformist administrations that overstayed their mandate. Without an ability to deliver stability, centrism risks becoming synonymous with impotence—a dangerous perception in an era of rising populism.

Macron’s next move will determine whether France regains some semblance of coherence—or tumbles into a prolonged phase of caretaker governments, legislative dysfunction, and mounting economic risk.

If a new prime minister is not named swiftly, France may enter uncharted territory where paralysis becomes the norm, not the exception.