A.P. Møller – Mærsk sees stronger 2026 cash flow as port congestion drives shipping rates higher

A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S delivered a sharply stronger second quarter as resilient container demand, higher freight rates and widespread logistics congestion pushed revenue up 20% year over year to $15.8 billion. EBITDA increased to $3 billion from $2.3 billion, while EBIT nearly doubled to $1.6 billion from $845 million and net profit climbed to approximately $1.3 billion. The Danish shipping and logistics group responded with its second major guidance increase in less than two months, lifting expected 2026 underlying EBITDA to $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion from $8 billion to $10 billion. Investors reacted strongly, sending the company’s Class B shares up more than 9% in Copenhagen as the market reassessed how much longer elevated freight rates and constrained global logistics capacity could support earnings.

The strength of the quarter is particularly notable because it occurred despite disruption surrounding the Middle East, higher fuel costs and persistent uncertainty around global trade. Rather than reducing container volumes as feared, the disruption coincided with strong exports from the Far East and congestion across ports and inland transport networks, allowing A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S to redirect capacity toward stronger trade lanes and capture higher spot freight rates. The company now expects the global container market to grow approximately 4% during 2026, giving management greater confidence that the current earnings improvement can extend through the remainder of the year.

The investment case nevertheless contains an important cyclical warning. Much of the earnings acceleration is being supported by freight rates and congestion that can change rapidly if ports normalize, capacity increases or global demand weakens, leaving A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S highly sensitive to movements in container pricing. The company estimates that a $100 change in average container freight rates could alter full-year EBIT by approximately $700 million, illustrating why the upgraded outlook remains closely tied to market conditions outside management’s direct control.

Higher freight rates transform Ocean earnings as container volumes continue to grow

Ocean remained the primary driver of the second-quarter improvement, with segment revenue increasing 23% year over year as loaded container volumes rose 4.1% and average loaded freight rates climbed 22%. Vessel utilization remained high at 96%, while unit costs excluding energy declined 0.8% as greater volumes helped offset higher operating expenses.

Those factors produced a dramatic change in Ocean profitability. Segment EBIT reached $935 million compared with $229 million in the second quarter of 2025 and a $192 million loss during the first quarter of 2026, demonstrating how quickly earnings can move when freight rates and network utilization turn favorable at the same time.

A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S said spot freight rates increased significantly during the quarter because strong demand coincided with increasingly unbalanced trade flows and capacity constraints. Congestion has developed across parts of Europe, the Middle East, South America and West Africa, while continued export strength from China has increased pressure on already stretched landside logistics infrastructure.

The result resembles a classic shipping-market squeeze in which demand does not need to explode for rates to rise sharply. When containers, vessels and port capacity are positioned unevenly across the global network, even moderate increases in demand can create bottlenecks that reduce effective capacity and increase the price customers must pay to move goods.

Chief Executive Officer Vincent Clerc indicated that congestion increasingly reflects limitations in ports, trucking, rail and other landside infrastructure rather than merely insufficient vessel capacity. Reuters reported that waiting times to berth had reached as much as 12 days in Shanghai, highlighting how congestion can spread through the wider logistics system and support freight rates even when shipping companies continue adding vessel capacity.

That environment is highly profitable for A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S in the near term, but it creates a complicated longer-term picture. Customers ultimately want lower transportation costs and reliable supply chains, while shareholders benefit when scarce capacity supports higher rates, meaning some of the conditions currently boosting Ocean earnings are precisely the disruptions the company is investing to resolve.

Logistics and Services growth suggests A.P. Møller – Mærsk is gaining beyond container shipping

A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S has spent years attempting to reduce dependence on volatile container freight rates by building an integrated logistics business capable of serving customers beyond ocean transportation. The second quarter provided further evidence of progress, with Logistics & Services revenue increasing 15% year over year and 11% sequentially.

The segment generated EBIT of $217 million compared with $175 million a year earlier and $173 million during the first quarter. Its EBIT margin improved to 5.1%, up 0.5 percentage points sequentially, as landside services, forwarding and logistics solutions contributed to the stronger performance.

Middle East disruption created opportunities within the business rather than simply generating costs. Cargo originally destined for Gulf ports was rerouted through alternative gateways and inland routes, increasing demand for landbridge services, while air freight and project logistics also benefited from stronger volumes.

This integrated model matters because it gives A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S additional ways to capture revenue when conventional shipping routes become disrupted. A customer facing congestion at a port may also need warehousing, trucking, air freight or alternative routing, potentially allowing the company to earn revenue across multiple links in the supply chain rather than only from the ocean voyage.

Terminals also remained resilient. Revenue increased 11% as volumes rose 2.2% and revenue per move increased 7.1%, while EBIT was $458 million compared with $461 million a year earlier. The stability of terminal earnings despite geopolitical disruption reinforces the importance of ports as a more infrastructure-like component of the wider A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S portfolio.

The company is continuing to invest heavily in that infrastructure. APM Terminals inaugurated a $350 million fully electrified container terminal at Suape in Brazil, while APM Terminals and Hateco Group agreed with Da Nang City to develop the Lien Chieu Container Terminal in Vietnam through an investment exceeding $1.7 billion.

These investments illustrate the longer-term strategy behind the short-term earnings surge. A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S is using cash generated from shipping cycles to expand ports and logistics assets that can potentially produce more durable earnings when ocean freight conditions eventually normalize.

A.P. Møller – Mærsk raises 2026 EBITDA guidance by billions after stronger-than-expected Q2

Management’s revised guidance represents the clearest indication of how dramatically expectations have changed during 2026. A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S now forecasts underlying EBITDA of $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion, compared with the $8 billion to $10 billion range issued on June 29.

The shift becomes even more striking when compared with expectations earlier in the year. In May, the company had forecast underlying EBITDA of only $4.5 billion to $7 billion, meaning the midpoint of the latest range is roughly twice the midpoint of that earlier guidance.

Underlying EBIT guidance has followed the same trajectory. A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S now expects $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion compared with $2 billion to $4 billion in late June, while the company had entered May forecasting a range that extended from a loss of $1.5 billion to a profit of $1 billion.

Free cash flow expectations have improved substantially as well. Management now expects positive free cash flow for 2026, replacing its previous forecast of at least negative $1.5 billion, while planned capital expenditure remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion to $11 billion across both the 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 periods.

The guidance revisions effectively show how difficult the shipping environment has been to forecast. Freight markets changed quickly as container demand remained resilient and disruptions created congestion, forcing management to repeatedly raise earnings expectations as visibility improved.

A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S is now assuming approximately 4% global container-market volume growth for the full year. The forecast provides a healthier demand foundation than the market feared earlier in 2026, although shipping profitability will still depend heavily on how freight rates, capacity and geopolitical disruptions develop during the second half.

Maersk shares surge as investors price in higher earnings but shipping volatility remains the key risk

A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S Class B shares closed around DKK 19,000 on August 13, gaining more than 9% and reaching the upper end of their 52-week trading range. Reuters reported that the shares initially climbed nearly 6% after the results before gains accelerated later in the session, while other market data showed the stock approaching a new annual high.

The market reaction is understandable because the second-quarter numbers substantially exceeded expectations. Reuters reported that the $3 billion EBITDA result was well above the roughly $2.12 billion median analyst forecast supplied by the company, meaning the guidance increase was supported by an earnings surprise rather than management optimism alone.

Investor sentiment is also benefiting from continued capital returns. A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S is progressing with its $1 billion share repurchase program and announced the second phase of that program on August 13, giving shareholders another way to benefit from stronger cash generation.

The main question is how sustainable the current profit environment will prove. Congestion and geopolitical disruption are supporting freight rates today, but improvements in port efficiency, additional vessel capacity or weaker consumer demand could eventually reverse those conditions and compress Ocean earnings.

The company’s diversification provides some protection because Logistics & Services and Terminals are both growing and producing meaningful profits. They are not yet large enough, however, to completely eliminate the earnings sensitivity associated with the Ocean business, particularly when freight-rate movements can have a multibillion-dollar impact on annual EBIT.

The second quarter therefore strengthens the near-term earnings case while simultaneously illustrating why A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S remains one of the clearest corporate indicators of global trade conditions. Strong demand and strained infrastructure are currently working in shareholders’ favor, but the same volatility that produced a dramatic guidance upgrade can eventually move in the opposite direction.

Key takeaways from A.P. Møller – Mærsk’s Q2 earnings and higher 2026 outlook

• A.P. Møller – Mærsk Q2 revenue increased 20% to $15.8 billion as stronger container demand and freight rates lifted all major businesses.
• EBITDA rose to $3 billion from $2.3 billion, while EBIT nearly doubled to $1.6 billion.
• Ocean revenue increased 23% as loaded volumes grew 4.1% and average loaded freight rates climbed 22%.
• Ocean EBIT surged to $935 million from $229 million a year earlier and a $192 million loss in Q1.
• Logistics & Services revenue rose 15%, while its EBIT margin improved sequentially to 5.1%.
• A.P. Møller – Mærsk raised 2026 underlying EBITDA guidance to $10.5 billion-$12.5 billion from $8 billion-$10 billion.
• Underlying EBIT guidance increased to $4.5 billion-$6.5 billion, while expected free cash flow moved above zero.
• The company now expects the global container market to grow approximately 4% during 2026.
• A.P. Møller – Mærsk continues its $1 billion share buyback while investing heavily in global port and logistics infrastructure.
• Class B shares surged more than 9% on August 13 as investors responded to the earnings beat and major guidance increase.