Cyclone Montha triggers red alerts in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha: How severe is the threat along India’s east coast?

Cyclone Montha, which formed from a deep depression in the Bay of Bengal, has intensified into a cyclonic storm and is set to evolve into a severe cyclonic storm before making landfall along the coast of Andhra Pradesh. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system is expected to strike between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada during the evening or night of October 28. Multiple states including Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and parts of Chhattisgarh are bracing for heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flooding, prompting widespread school closures, emergency alerts, and disaster response activations.

The name ‘Montha’ was assigned by Thailand under the World Meteorological Organization’s regional naming conventions for cyclones in the North Indian Ocean. While India frequently witnesses post-monsoon cyclonic activity in October and November, the scale of the alerts and the geographic spread of the expected rainfall make Montha a significant event for eastern and southern India.

How has Cyclone Montha evolved and what are the IMD’s latest predictions?

As of the morning of October 27, Cyclone Montha was moving west-northwest at a speed of approximately 16 kilometers per hour. The IMD reported that it was centered about 600 kilometers east-southeast of Chennai, 680 kilometers south-southeast of Kakinada, and 710 kilometers from Visakhapatnam. The system is forecast to continue its west-northwestward trajectory over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal during the next 12 hours before veering northwest and intensifying further.

The IMD has projected that Montha will develop into a severe cyclonic storm by the morning of October 28. Sustained wind speeds are expected to reach 90 to 100 kilometers per hour, with gusts up to 110 kilometers per hour near landfall. The system’s impact will not be limited to coastal winds. Montha is also expected to bring extremely heavy rainfall to Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Telangana from October 27 through 30.

What rainfall patterns and wind speeds are expected across different states?

Rainfall patterns associated with Montha are projected to be intense and widespread. On October 27 and 28, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the Mahe region are likely to experience heavy to very heavy rain. Coastal Karnataka is expected to receive sustained heavy rainfall from October 26 through 28. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and the union territory of Yanam are expected to face continuous rainfall from October 26 through October 30, with isolated instances of extremely heavy downpour between October 27 and 29.

Odisha and Telangana are both forecast to receive significant rainfall on October 28 and 29, with isolated areas in Odisha potentially experiencing extremely heavy rainfall. In total, the storm’s impact stretches from the southern tip of India to the eastern coast, affecting both coastal and interior districts.

In terms of wind, the most severe gusts are likely to affect the landfall area in Andhra Pradesh, particularly in the Kakinada region. Alongside wind damage, storm surge may also pose a risk in low-lying coastal areas during the time of landfall.

Which districts have been placed under red and orange alerts, and what measures are being taken?

The IMD has placed most districts in Andhra Pradesh under red alert from October 27 through 29, signaling an urgent need for disaster readiness. Odisha is also under a red alert for October 28 and 29. Telangana and Chhattisgarh have been issued alerts for October 28. Tamil Nadu is currently under an orange alert for October 27 and 28, while Karnataka has been issued a yellow alert for the same dates.

The Board of Intermediate Education in Andhra Pradesh announced the closure of schools in several districts from October 27 to October 31. These include Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, Kakinada, West Godavari, Eluru, Krishna, NTR, Guntur, Bapatla, Palnadu, and YSR Kadapa. The move is aimed at safeguarding students in districts expected to be directly affected by Montha’s impact.

Meanwhile, Chennai, which is currently under an orange alert for October 27 and a yellow alert for October 28, had not yet issued an official school closure notice as of Monday morning. Thiruvallur district in Tamil Nadu was also placed under an orange alert for both days.

How are state governments and disaster authorities preparing for landfall?

Disaster preparedness measures have been ramped up across all affected states. In Andhra Pradesh, district collectors have been instructed to activate emergency control rooms, set up cyclone shelters, and ensure availability of generators, satellite phones, and emergency supplies. The state government is also coordinating with the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) for quick deployment of rescue teams.

In Odisha, the government has focused on pre-positioning relief materials and evacuating residents from vulnerable coastal and riverine areas. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the Bay of Bengal, and marine traffic has been closely monitored. Community shelters are being prepared in both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha to accommodate evacuees.

Chennai Corporation has intensified storm drain clearance and flood mitigation work across vulnerable areas in preparation for heavy rain. Local administrations in Rayalaseema and coastal Karnataka have likewise begun logistical planning for possible flooding and landslides.

How does Cyclone Montha compare to past cyclones in this region?

India’s east coast, particularly Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, has witnessed several devastating cyclones over the years. The 1996 Andhra cyclone, Cyclone Hudhud in 2014, and Cyclone Fani in 2019 all caused widespread destruction. More recently, Cyclone Gulab in 2021 followed a similar east-to-west trajectory before impacting the interior regions of Telangana and Chhattisgarh.

Cyclone Montha, while not currently classified as a very severe cyclonic storm, mirrors these systems in terms of geography and potential impact. The fact that it is expected to cause significant rainfall not just along the coast but deep into inland areas highlights the evolving nature of tropical cyclones in the region.

Meteorological data indicates that cyclones forming in October in the Bay of Bengal have a higher probability of landfall on the Andhra coast, and Montha fits that trend. Climate scientists also suggest that warming sea surface temperatures in the Bay are increasing the intensity and frequency of such storms.

What are the broader implications for disaster resilience and climate adaptation?

The response to Cyclone Montha is an indicator of how India’s coastal states are increasingly investing in disaster preparedness. Early warnings, school closures, and evacuation planning show a heightened institutional readiness. However, the long-term resilience of urban infrastructure, coastal housing, and inland flood management remains under pressure, especially as climate variability accelerates.

There are growing calls among urban planners, disaster managers, and climate scientists to upgrade drainage systems, decentralize emergency logistics, and integrate cyclone shelters with community health and education infrastructure. The intensification of Montha may also re-open policy conversations about zoning laws along the coast, fishing livelihoods, and the insurance coverage of agricultural and commercial losses caused by cyclones.

Key takeaways: Cyclone Montha update and statewise alerts

• Cyclone Montha is expected to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm and make landfall near Kakinada on October 28.

• Red alerts are active in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha; Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are under orange and yellow alerts respectively.

• Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is forecast across Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, and parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala between October 26–30.

• Schools are closed across 13 districts in Andhra Pradesh; Chennai remains under watch.

• Disaster preparedness includes shelter activations, evacuation plans, and coordination with national emergency forces.

• The cyclone highlights India’s increasing exposure to intense post-monsoon weather systems, calling for deeper climate resilience strategies.