Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra becomes Thailand’s PM – What’s next?

In a historic political development, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has been endorsed as Thailand’s 31st Prime Minister. At 37, Paetongtarn becomes the youngest individual to assume this office and only the second woman to hold the position, following her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra. The endorsement, made by King Maha Vajiralongkorn on August 18, 2024, follows her securing a parliamentary majority, signalling a continuation of the influential, yet divisive, Shinawatra family’s political legacy.

Family Legacy and Political Influence

Paetongtarn’s ascension is deeply rooted in her family’s political history. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire tycoon turned politician, was a dominant force in Thai politics for over 20 years. His tenure was marked by populist policies that garnered substantial support among the rural poor. However, his premiership ended abruptly with a military coup in 2006, and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra faced a similar fate in 2014 when removed by the Constitutional Court.

Challenges and Political Landscape

Despite the Shinawatra family’s enduring influence, Paetongtarn’s leadership is fraught with challenges. The popularity of the family’s affiliated party, Pheu Thai, has waned, particularly among the middle class and younger voters. The May 2023 elections saw Pheu Thai overshadowed by the progressive Move Forward Party, which campaigned on reforming the monarchy and military. The subsequent dissolution of Move Forward by the Constitutional Court has cleared the way for Paetongtarn but also underscored the instability of Thai politics.

Paetongtarn’s lack of governance experience raises concerns among analysts, who fear her leadership may be seen as a mere extension of her father’s influence rather than a new direction for the country. Her immediate predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was ousted due to ethics violations, adding further complexity to Paetongtarn’s role. She faces significant economic challenges, including the implementation of Pheu Thai’s flagship cash handout scheme, which has already encountered delays and could affect her party’s reputation if not executed successfully.

Looking Ahead

Paetongtarn has committed to tackling Thailand’s economic issues and fostering national unity. Her effectiveness in these areas will be crucial in establishing her own legacy separate from her father’s. As she forms her cabinet and prepares to unveil her policies to parliament, her handling of Thailand’s complex political landscape, including the potential for military intervention and judicial disruptions, will be closely observed.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s tenure as Prime Minister not only tests her leadership abilities but also reflects the ongoing impact of the Shinawatra family’s political presence in Thailand. Her success in adapting to the current political environment, meeting public expectations, and maintaining her party’s relevance will shape her career and the future of the Shinawatra dynasty.