World on alert as Iran eyes nuclear bomb amid growing tensions with Israel

The escalating crisis in West Asia has taken a dramatic turn, with Iranian hardliners increasingly advocating for nuclear weapons as their last remaining option. Tensions have risen sharply due to Iran‘s aggressive stance in the region, particularly as it grows closer to nuclear capability. Tehran’s leadership, emboldened by ultra-conservative factions, believes that nuclear armament could provide the ultimate security guarantee, pushing them towards a North Korean model of deterrence against foreign pressure.

Iran’s moves come at a critical moment, both internally and externally. The nation’s nuclear enrichment has reached a stage where experts, including those from the International Atomic Energy Agency, warn that Iran now has the material to construct several warheads. This development, alongside Tehran’s aggressive rhetoric and regional proxy conflicts, has alarmed neighboring countries like Israel, Iraq, and the Gulf states. Although Iran has yet to officially cross the nuclear threshold, the capability has become a key point of leverage in its dealings with the West.

The motivation behind this nuclear ambition stems from Iran’s struggle for regional dominance, particularly in the face of Western sanctions and economic hardships at home. Despite significant protests against the regime, spurred by economic conditions and the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, President Ebrahim Raisi and other Iranian hardliners have continued to pursue aggressive foreign policies. Internally, the regime is using external threats as a means to rally nationalistic support ahead of the March 2024 parliamentary elections.

As regional instability deepens, expert opinion is split. Some warn that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons could spark a nuclear arms race in West Asia. Others, however, believe that Iran is more interested in using the threat of nuclear capability as a bargaining chip in international negotiations. For instance, Tehran insists that the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal must include guarantees from Washington that future U.S. administrations will not again rescind it.

Military experts are cautious about predicting the next steps, but the situation is becoming more precarious. With Iran ramping up its involvement in conflicts across the region, such as its backing of Hezbollah and threats against Israel, the likelihood of a major confrontation continues to grow. Israeli leaders have made it clear that they will not allow Iran to become a nuclear state, hinting at potential preemptive strikes.

The international community remains deeply divided over how to handle Iran. While the Biden administration has pursued diplomacy, some argue that a stronger response is necessary to prevent Iran from further destabilizing the region. The coming months will be critical as both the U.S. and Iran face crucial elections, potentially determining the future course of West Asia.