Will Maharashtra’s election tilt power dynamics? High-stakes battles in Jharkhand

Maharashtra and Jharkhand have become focal points in Indian politics as their assembly elections unfold with significant implications for both states and the broader national context. Maharashtra’s 288 assembly constituencies and the second phase of Jharkhand’s polls for 38 seats mark critical contests between alliances seeking to solidify their dominance. The results, expected on November 23, will reveal how voters respond to recent political shifts, welfare policies, and leadership tussles.

In Maharashtra, the election sees the ruling Mahayuti alliance—comprising Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)—pitted against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance of Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, and the Indian National Congress. This election represents a litmus test for the ruling alliance, which faced criticism during the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year for perceived governance shortcomings.

The Mahayuti alliance has based its campaign on the welfare initiatives introduced by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, especially the “Ladli Behen Scheme,” aimed at empowering women financially. Shinde has frequently emphasized that these policies cater to diverse societal needs, hoping to secure widespread approval. On the other hand, the opposition MVA has anchored its campaign around demands for caste-based reservations, a comprehensive caste census, and addressing agricultural distress. Analysts suggest that while such macro issues frame the campaigns, local concerns and leadership preferences will ultimately influence voter decisions.

The leadership stakes in Maharashtra have also introduced an air of unpredictability. While Eknath Shinde is vying to retain his chief ministerial post, BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, who stepped aside in 2022 to accommodate Shinde’s faction, is reportedly prepared to reclaim the position. The BJP’s chief strategist, Amit Shah, is said to back this move, adding further intrigue. Meanwhile, the MVA faces its own internal competition, with Uddhav Thackeray seeking the top post. However, the Congress, buoyed by its strong Lok Sabha performance in Maharashtra, has indicated that leadership should go to the party with the most legislative seats, according to senior Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan.

In Jharkhand, the focus shifts to the second phase of polling, which will determine the fortunes of key political figures, including Chief Minister Hemant Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), his wife Kalpana Soren, and Leader of Opposition Amar Kumar Bauri. The JMM, in alliance with the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is working to retain its majority, having won 47 seats in the 2019 elections. The BJP, meanwhile, is striving to recover from its 2019 losses, when its seat count fell to 25 from 37 in the previous election.

The stakes are particularly high for Hemant Soren, whose government has faced scrutiny over governance and development issues during his tenure. However, the alliance remains optimistic about maintaining voter trust through a combined strategy of grassroots engagement and addressing regional issues.

These elections are seen as a bellwether for the national political scene, especially with the 2024 general elections approaching. Observers anticipate that the outcomes will shape not only governance in Maharashtra and Jharkhand but also the strategies of major political players across India.