Will HALEU supply bottlenecks derail U.S. advanced nuclear reactor timelines?

As the United States advances toward commercial deployment of next-generation nuclear technologies, a critical obstacle has emerged: the lack of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU). Required for advanced designs such as TerraPower’s Natrium, X-energy’s Xe-100, and Kairos Power’s KP-FHR, HALEU lies at the center of a fragile supply chain that could determine whether U.S. decarbonization goals remain on track through 2030 and beyond.

With Russia’s historical dominance of HALEU enrichment disrupted following its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. developers are scrambling to secure domestic capacity before construction timelines begin slipping. While several DOE programs, commercial partnerships, and private investments are beginning to fill the gap, analysts warn that a narrow window exists to scale fuel readiness before advanced reactor deployment accelerates in the next five years.

What steps have Centrus Energy and the Department of Energy taken to establish domestic HALEU production capacity?

Centrus Energy, operating the only NRC-licensed HALEU enrichment facility in the U.S., completed its first 900-kilogram batch in late 2023 under a DOE pilot contract. The facility, located in Piketon, Ohio, marked a key milestone in late 2024 by beginning continuous enrichment operations. In June 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy extended Centrus’ HALEU production contract by one year, signaling federal commitment to long-term supply buildout.

Despite the progress, Centrus’ capacity remains limited. Its current setup can produce roughly 900 kilograms of HALEU per year—well short of the 40–50 metric tons per year estimated to meet national demand by 2035. Expanding that capacity will require further federal support, private investment, and environmental permitting aligned with DOE’s HALEU Availability Program goals.

Institutional sentiment around Centrus has improved following its technical success, but investors remain cautious given the cost, regulatory sensitivity, and national security implications of enriched uranium production.

How has TerraPower responded to HALEU bottlenecks ahead of the Natrium reactor launch?

TerraPower, the Bill Gates-founded nuclear developer behind the Natrium reactor, delayed its Wyoming deployment timeline from 2028 to 2030 in part due to HALEU supply uncertainty. While initial progress on the Kemmerer site has begun—fueled by a $2 billion DOE cost-share—the company has adopted a dual-sourcing strategy to mitigate fuel risks.

In 2025, TerraPower signed a multi-year agreement with ASP Isotopes, a South Africa-based enrichment startup developing laser-assisted isotope separation technologies. ASP committed to supplying up to 150 metric tons of HALEU through 2037, contingent on regulatory and commercial milestones. TerraPower also continues to engage with Centrus and DOE to ensure interim fuel readiness for its demonstration phase.

Analysts note that TerraPower’s approach—securing non-Russian foreign fuel capacity while supporting domestic initiatives—may become a template for other U.S. reactor developers facing similar fuel constraints.

How are X-energy and Kairos Power managing their HALEU strategies to maintain deployment momentum?

X-energy has opted for vertical integration through TRISO-X, its Oak Ridge, Tennessee-based HALEU fuel subsidiary. Backed by DOE tax incentives and a $148 million investment, the TRISO-X facility is designed to produce specialized fuel for the Xe-100 reactor. The facility is expected to begin pilot-scale fuel production by late 2026, providing a controlled supply chain advantage as X-energy pursues early deployments with partners like Dow and Amazon.

Kairos Power, meanwhile, has taken a different path. The California-based startup is focused on delivering its 35 MWt Hermes demonstration reactor by 2027 and has received allocations of DOE-supplied HALEU for that purpose. However, Kairos does not currently operate its own fuel production facility and will rely on federal programs or third-party sources like Centrus in the near term.

While X-energy appears better positioned for fuel self-sufficiency, Kairos is seen as an efficient steward of demonstration-scale fuel, using an iterative approach to validate technology before committing to larger builds.

How large is the U.S. HALEU demand gap relative to projected advanced nuclear deployments?

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that demand for HALEU could reach 10 to 20 metric tons per year by 2030 and exceed 50 metric tons annually by 2035 if multiple advanced reactor designs proceed to commercial scale. Currently, domestic production is limited to less than 1 metric ton per year, primarily through Centrus’ Piketon facility.

The HALEU Availability Program was established under the Inflation Reduction Act and authorized up to $700 million in initial procurement, but significant scale-up is still required. Private sector analysts caution that without a clear line of sight to commercial-scale enrichment and fabrication, the U.S. risks stalling its own nuclear renaissance.

Fuel supply has now overtaken permitting and financing as the leading source of risk for many advanced nuclear developers. Institutional investors tracking TerraPower, X-energy, and Kairos have flagged HALEU availability as a top gating item in project readiness assessments.

What are the geopolitical and security considerations driving urgency in HALEU localization?

Prior to 2022, Russia’s Tenex was the primary commercial supplier of HALEU to global markets. Following U.S. sanctions and a formal ban on Russian uranium imports passed in 2024, the urgency to onshore enrichment capacity accelerated.

However, HALEU’s enriched nature—up to 20% U-235—places it near the low end of weapons-grade thresholds, raising concerns among nonproliferation experts. Any expansion of domestic enrichment must therefore satisfy NRC, DOE, and Department of Defense guidelines around safeguard transparency and facility security.

This intersection of energy security, nuclear proliferation risk, and climate policy has elevated HALEU supply to a top-tier national strategy priority, influencing congressional funding and export control policy through 2025 and beyond.

What industry strategies are emerging to close the HALEU fuel gap before 2030?

Several parallel strategies are being pursued to address the HALEU fuel shortfall. The U.S. Department of Energy has committed initial allocations from its strategic uranium reserves through direct contracts and stockpile releases. These are designated to support early-stage demonstration units developed by TerraPower, X-energy, Kairos Power, and Oklo. This near-term availability is intended to keep first-of-a-kind projects on track while long-term supply scales up.

Centrus Energy is expected to submit proposals to expand its Piketon enrichment facility with new centrifuge cascades. These modular expansions could increase domestic HALEU output significantly, potentially reaching as high as five metric tons per year by 2028. The company’s existing license and operational experience make it a frontrunner in scaling commercial-grade HALEU production inside the U.S.

Private-sector players are also entering the field. ASP Isotopes has formalized a 10-year HALEU supply agreement with TerraPower and plans to commercialize advanced enrichment in South Africa by 2027. Other companies—including Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation and Urenco USA—are exploring HALEU supply strategies based on projected reactor deployment timelines and market signals from both the public and private sectors.

In parallel, innovation is expanding beyond enrichment. Reactor developers are investing in downstream improvements such as pellet fabrication, HALEU-specific transportation cask development, and secure long-term storage protocols. These supporting technologies are essential to ensure that once HALEU is enriched, it can be safely processed, delivered, and deployed at scale across the U.S. advanced nuclear ecosystem.

Industry observers expect that if even half of these initiatives reach operational scale, the U.S. could support two to three major advanced reactor deployments by 2030, with additional capacity ramping thereafter.

The race to commercialize advanced nuclear reactors in the United States now hinges on a new form of infrastructure—not steel, concrete, or software, but uranium. HALEU is no longer just a fuel; it is the economic and geopolitical linchpin of next-generation nuclear power. Whether TerraPower’s Natrium, X-energy’s Xe-100, and Kairos Power’s KP-FHR arrive on schedule may come down not to reactor design or financing, but to kilograms of enriched uranium ready for shipment.