Water as a weapon? India reduces Chenab flow after deadly terror attack

India has reduced the flow of water through the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir, in a move that follows the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan. Government officials familiar with the matter confirmed on Monday that the action is part of New Delhi’s broader post-Pahalgam counter-response, days after a terrorist attack in the region claimed the lives of 26 security personnel and civilians.

The Chenab River, one of the three western rivers assigned to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, originates in Himachal Pradesh and flows through Jammu and Kashmir before crossing into Pakistan-administered territory. The Baglihar Dam, located in the Ramban district, is a run-of-the-river hydroelectric facility constructed and operated by India, which has been at the centre of several water-related disputes between the two countries.

What Happened at Baglihar Dam?

According to Indian officials speaking on background to The Economic Times and Press Trust of India, the decision to curtail water flow through the Baglihar Dam was implemented over the weekend, with engineering teams instructed to reduce discharge rates. The timing coincides with heightened diplomatic and military tensions between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the April 30 terror attack in Pahalgam.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources issued a statement late Sunday night accusing India of deliberately weaponising water and violating international obligations. The statement confirmed that downstream river monitoring systems had detected a significant drop in Chenab water inflow, prompting Pakistan’s National Assembly Standing Committee on Water Resources to convene an emergency meeting.

What Led to the Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty?

India’s move follows its formal suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, which was signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank. The treaty divided the six Indus basin rivers between the two countries, granting India control over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — and Pakistan control over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Despite enduring multiple wars and decades of hostility, the treaty had been upheld for over 64 years until this recent escalation.

The trigger for the latest breakdown was the April 2025 Pahalgam terrorist attack, which Indian intelligence agencies linked to cross-border operatives allegedly backed by Pakistan-based terror outfits. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, in the days following the attack, vowed to take “strategic retaliatory measures,” which now include this water restriction.

How Is Pakistan Responding to the Water Reduction?

Pakistani Foreign Office and Water Ministry representatives have jointly announced that Islamabad is preparing to challenge India’s actions through the World Bank and the Permanent Court of Arbitration. A senior Pakistani official, speaking to Reuters under anonymity, stated that the government considers the Baglihar water flow cut a “blatant breach of treaty obligations,” warning that further disruptions could “amount to acts of aggression under international law.”

The Pakistani government has also begun mobilising diplomatic channels across the United Nations and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, seeking to internationalise the issue. The provinces of Punjab and Sindh, where agriculture relies heavily on canal systems linked to the Chenab River, are expected to face the first wave of impact from any sustained reduction in inflow.

What Is the Strategic Role of the Baglihar and Kishanganga Dams?

The Baglihar Dam, commissioned in 2008, is located in the Ramban region of Jammu and Kashmir. It has been a frequent source of legal and diplomatic friction between India and Pakistan. While the dam is technically designed as a run-of-the-river hydroelectric project — which is permitted under the Indus Waters Treaty — Pakistan had objected to its design and construction, leading to arbitration.

India’s Ministry of Jal Shakti is also reportedly evaluating a similar reduction strategy for the Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum River, further intensifying concerns in Islamabad. A government source told Hindustan Times that “additional control structures are being studied to maximise strategic advantage over water distribution.”

What Are the Broader Implications for Water Security in South Asia?

International hydrologists and geopolitical analysts warn that India’s decision to reduce water flows from Baglihar — particularly after suspending the Indus Waters Treaty — risks turning water into a geopolitical flashpoint in an already volatile region. While India cannot easily divert massive volumes due to current storage limitations, it can create disruptive short-term shortages that affect downstream irrigation cycles in Pakistan.

Experts at the South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) caution that the treaty’s suspension will likely result in the end of real-time hydrological data sharing, which previously allowed both sides to prepare for flood risk and seasonal crop planning. Loss of this data could have cascading effects on food production, disaster management, and population health in Pakistan.

Has the International Community Responded?

The World Bank, acting as a treaty guarantor, has not yet issued an official statement but is understood to be monitoring the situation closely. Several UN-affiliated agencies and non-governmental observers have called for “urgent de-escalation” and “restoration of treaty mechanisms to prevent humanitarian fallout.” Informal diplomatic messages have been exchanged between representatives of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union, urging both sides to resume technical dialogue.

Meanwhile, China — a stakeholder in regional hydro-politics through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — has issued a cautious statement urging respect for international water-sharing norms. Beijing has previously voiced support for Pakistan’s right to water access under the treaty but has avoided direct criticism of India.

What Happens Next in the India-Pakistan Water Dispute?

Indian officials have indicated that the current action is “phase one” of a larger strategic water doctrine under review. The National Security Council Secretariat and Ministry of External Affairs are believed to be evaluating legal and infrastructural options to expand India’s control over western rivers without immediate treaty constraints.

Pakistan’s recourse to international legal institutions may take months to yield results, if at all, given the complexity of treaty enforcement without binding international military backing. In the meantime, civil society organisations and think tanks in both countries have called for backchannel negotiations and third-party mediation to avoid irreversible damage to bilateral ties.

As of Monday morning, water discharge through the Baglihar Dam remains reduced, with further government statements expected later in the day. If the trend continues, this could mark the most severe disruption in water sharing between India and Pakistan since the treaty’s inception in 1960.