Trident Ltd stock jumps over 13% amid textile export boom and margin recovery

Shares of Trident Ltd (NSE: TRIDENT) soared 13.51% to close at ₹33.45 on May 21, 2025, in one of the stock’s most notable rallies in recent quarters. The surge came amid a substantial turnover of ₹217 crore and over 6.59 crore shares traded, positioning Trident among the top gainers on Indian exchanges for the day.

The rally was underpinned by bullish expectations of stronger quarterly results, reports of robust export order flows, and easing cost pressures across key raw materials like cotton and energy. The home textiles major is reportedly benefiting from a broad-based pickup in overseas demand ahead of seasonal festive restocking, especially from buyers in the United States and Europe.

What Triggered the Rally in Trident Shares?

The latest uptick in Trident’s stock is believed to have stemmed from media and broker reports highlighting a sharp rebound in export enquiries, particularly in towels and bedsheets. Western retailers are said to be initiating early stocking cycles for the 2025 holiday season, reversing a prolonged destocking trend that plagued much of 2023 and early 2024.

Textile analysts noted that lower domestic cotton prices—down over 18% YoY—combined with steady rupee-dollar stability, have provided a twin tailwind. With Trident operating at integrated scale and leveraging backward-linked operations, margin expectations have been revised upwards. Some brokerage models now forecast a 150–200 bps YoY expansion in EBITDA margin for Q1 FY26.

Additionally, reports of favourable working capital trends and increased retail traction via e-commerce and “My Trident” stores further fuelled investor confidence.

How Trident’s Business Model Is Powering Growth

Trident Ltd, headquartered in Ludhiana, has evolved from a commodity yarn manufacturer into a diversified textiles and paper conglomerate. Its operations span towels, bedsheets, paper products, chemicals, and captive power, with home textiles now accounting for over half its consolidated revenue.

The company’s integrated approach—from spinning to weaving, dyeing, and finishing—has helped mitigate raw material volatility. As of FY24, Trident reported ₹7,952 crore in revenue, with EBITDA of ₹1,248 crore and a net profit of ₹601 crore. Despite macro headwinds, the company’s net debt-to-equity stood below 0.4x, and return on capital employed exceeded 17%.

Global clients such as Walmart, IKEA, Target, and Bed Bath & Beyond source from Trident, adding a layer of revenue predictability. The company also continues to build out green-certified and ESG-compliant offerings to address sustainability-driven procurement policies from key global accounts.

Institutional Activity: Who’s Buying Trident Stock?

As of the March 2025 quarter, promoters held 73.18% of Trident’s equity. While FII holding stood at 6.87%, and domestic mutual funds at 4.36%, incremental institutional interest is quietly growing.

Mid-cap fund houses such as HDFC Mutual Fund and Axis Mutual Fund have marginally increased their exposure to Trident in recent quarters. Quant Active Fund has also reportedly taken a small position, banking on the sector’s cyclical recovery.

On May 21, delivery-based buying accounted for over 68% of the traded volume, indicating institutional or HNI accumulation rather than speculative intraday positioning. Passive flows may have been aided by Trident’s inclusion in midcap indices and its ESG profile improvement.

How Trident Transformed from Cyclical Player to Sectoral Standout

Historically, Trident was seen as a cyclical counter due to high dependency on cotton prices and forex movements. However, starting FY21, the company began pivoting towards deeper backward integration, capacity expansions, and fixed-cost absorption strategies.

Between FY21 and FY24, Trident invested over ₹1,100 crore in capacity enhancement projects in Budni, Madhya Pradesh. These included new towel and sheeting lines with high-efficiency, low-emission technologies. The focus has also shifted to high-GSM, high-value towel ranges and bamboo-based products certified by OEKO-TEX and GOTS.

The reduction in net working capital days, improvement in receivable cycles, and increasing contribution from branded retail are key operational highlights that have turned Trident into a leaner, more margin-accretive player.

Sectoral Tailwinds: Why Textile Stocks Are Climbing Again

India’s broader textile sector is showing early signs of resurgence. This is being driven by a combination of softening raw material prices, revival in global demand, and improving logistics infrastructure.

According to data from the U.S. Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA), towel and bedlinen imports from India rose 6.1% YoY during March–April 2025, marking the first two-month expansion in over a year. Exporters in India are regaining share from Bangladesh and Pakistan amid continued political and currency instability in those markets.

Container freight rates have also normalised, and Indian exporters are now able to commit to tighter delivery timelines. Policy initiatives like Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and MEIS extension for textile categories are further enhancing competitiveness.

What Sets Trident Apart from Competitors?

Compared to large-cap peers like Welspun India and medium-sized players like GHCL or Indo Count Industries, Trident stands out for its deep backward integration, faster inventory turns, and direct linkages with mass-market global retailers.

The company’s early adoption of branded retail formats—such as the “My Trident” store network—is also a differentiator. Urban and semi-urban Tier 1 and Tier 2 customers are increasingly shifting towards affordable branded home linen, a segment where Trident has built a strong presence.

Moreover, the company’s newer verticals like paper and chemical derivatives are showing traction. With increasing demand for sustainable paper products and hygiene-grade materials, these units are being positioned as margin stabilisers during textile downturns.

What Are Analysts Forecasting for FY26?

Sell-side coverage on Trident remains limited compared to larger peers. However, brokerage notes from ICICI Securities and JM Financial in May 2025 upgraded EBITDA margin expectations for FY26 across the home textile universe, citing input cost moderation and strong restocking demand from the U.S.

Consensus projections peg Trident’s FY26 revenue at ₹8,700–₹9,000 crore with net profit exceeding ₹750 crore, assuming steady cotton prices and a benign global demand outlook. Key events that could further influence stock trajectory include the July-end Q1 FY26 results, capex announcements under PLI, and progress in the company’s branded retail business.

Risks to the Bull Case: What Could Go Wrong?

While current sentiment is strongly bullish, risks remain. A sudden spike in cotton prices due to weather disruptions, geopolitical instability impacting freight routes, or a delayed interest rate cut cycle in developed markets could dent global consumption.

Moreover, intense price competition from Bangladesh or aggressive discounting by Chinese exporters may limit pricing power in upcoming quarters. Regulatory shifts in export incentives or any delay in subsidy disbursements under PLI can also dampen margin visibility.

Can the Rally Sustain? Market Outlook on Trident

Trident’s 13.51% rally on May 21 is more than a flash in the pan. It reflects improving fundamentals, a favourable macro setup, and rising investor confidence in the textile sector’s recovery.

For retail investors, the key is to monitor whether this momentum sustains into Q1 FY26 earnings and whether the company’s diversification strategy—especially its consumer-facing verticals—continues to bear fruit.

The next few quarters could define whether Trident cements its transition from a cyclical textile bet to a more resilient, consumer-driven growth story in Indian manufacturing.