Tension rises: Will the US allow Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles?

The United States government has reiterated that it will not change its stance on providing long-range missiles to Ukraine. This announcement follows mounting frustration from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been pressing Western allies for months to deliver long-range missile systems like the U.S.-made ATACMS and the UK-made Storm Shadow missiles. These weapons would allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory, which Zelensky argues is critical for countering Russian aggression. However, the Biden administration remains cautious, citing concerns over potential escalation, especially given the recent warnings from Moscow.

John Kirby, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, stated that there is no plan to announce a shift in policy. He noted that any decision regarding the deployment of long-range missiles would be carefully weighed, considering the risks of being perceived as a direct participant in the conflict. Kirby added that Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently indicated that any use of Western missiles against Russian targets would be viewed as a direct act of war by the West.

Deliberations Behind Closed Doors

The discussions about lifting restrictions on long-range missile usage are ongoing behind closed doors. Recently, President Joe Biden met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss various aspects of military support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy have been in Kyiv, engaging in high-level talks with Ukrainian leadership, including President Zelensky. They are reportedly considering the strategic implications of allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons inside Russia. Despite these talks, both the U.S. and the UK remain cautious, wary of a potential Russian retaliation that could escalate into a broader conflict.

Biden suggested that the U.S. could soon permit the use of such missiles, but his administration is still “working that out.” This ambiguous stance has left Ukraine in a precarious position, with Zelensky reiterating the need for more robust military capabilities to counter Russia’s advancing forces.

The Strategic and Political Calculations

The decision to restrict or allow the use of long-range missiles is not merely a military one; it involves complex geopolitical calculations. Experts argue that the Biden administration is caught between supporting Ukraine’s right to defend its sovereignty and avoiding a direct confrontation with Russia. Allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles could potentially provoke a severe response from Moscow, including the use of nuclear weapons or other forms of military escalation.

Some military analysts believe that lifting these restrictions could significantly change the dynamics of the conflict, providing Ukraine with the ability to strike critical Russian military infrastructure. However, the risks are high, and the potential for an uncontrollable escalation remains a pressing concern for the U.S. and its allies.

Expert Opinions: The Dilemma of Modern Warfare

Military experts, including former Pentagon officials, have expressed varied opinions on the matter. Some argue that the U.S. should proceed cautiously, considering Russia’s unpredictable reactions and the ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe. One expert stated, “The provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine would undoubtedly enhance its defensive and offensive capabilities, but the stakes are too high if such an action leads to a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.”

Others suggest that the time has come to empower Ukraine with more sophisticated weapons to deter Russian advances more effectively. “Ukraine needs the capability to hit back and disrupt Russian logistics deep inside their territory,” said another expert, adding that long-range missile systems could serve as a critical deterrent.

Russia-Iran Military Cooperation Complicates the Situation

Adding complexity to this geopolitical dilemma is the growing military cooperation between Russia and Iran. Recent reports indicate that Russia has received a shipment of ballistic missiles from Iran, a move that has triggered new sanctions from both the U.S. and the UK against Tehran. Antony Blinken commented on this development, stating that it threatens European security and demonstrates Iran’s destabilising influence. This burgeoning alliance between Moscow and Tehran could further escalate the conflict, creating additional layers of risk for any Western military intervention.

The Stakes Remain High

As of now, the United States remains steadfast in its cautious approach, avoiding any steps that could be perceived as direct involvement in the conflict. While President Zelensky continues to push for more military support, including long-range missiles, the Biden administration’s careful deliberations reflect the high stakes involved. With geopolitical tensions rising and alliances shifting, the world watches closely as the U.S. navigates this delicate balancing act.