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Polymarket

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Polymarket is suddenly worth $21bn, and the hardest question is whether prediction markets are finance or gambling

Polymarket is seeking about $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation, with 1789 Capital committing roughly $300 million. The financing values the prediction-market platform at less than rival Kalshi but implies a paper value of about $4.6 billion for Intercontinental Exchange’s reported 22% stake. The harder question is whether billion-dollar annualised revenue can survive state-level legal battles, market-integrity scrutiny and a shift from speculative trading toward institutional financial infrastructure.