RWE H1 2025 results: How the German energy group balanced weaker wind output with portfolio growth

RWE Aktiengesellschaft (ETR: RWE) has posted a solid financial performance for the first half of 2025, delivering adjusted EBITDA of €2.14 billion and adjusted net income of €775 million, even as weaker European wind conditions and softer trading activity weighed on results. The Essen-based utility achieved adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of €1.06, already meeting 50% of its full-year EPS target of €2.10 per share, and reaffirmed both its 2025 dividend target of €1.20 per share and longer-term earnings ambitions of €3 per share by 2027 and €4 per share by 2030.

The company’s performance reflects both the challenges of variable renewable generation and the benefits of its diversified asset base, with CEO Markus Krebber emphasising that 11.2 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity is currently under construction, more than 3 GW of which is set to come online in the second half of 2025. RWE’s integrated portfolio of 38.4 GW across renewables, batteries, and flexible generation is central to its plan to deliver sustained growth through the energy transition.

How did segment performance reflect both market headwinds and new capacity gains in H1 2025?

Segment results showed a mixed picture. Offshore Wind adjusted EBITDA dropped to €643 million from €828 million in the prior-year period, with management citing significantly weaker wind conditions and lower forward electricity sales proceeds where no guaranteed prices applied. In Onshore Wind/Solar, earnings rose to €830 million from €730 million as newly commissioned wind, solar, and battery assets helped offset weaker European wind output.

Flexible Generation, which includes gas, hydro, and biomass plants, delivered €595 million in adjusted EBITDA versus €1.01 billion a year earlier, reflecting a return to more normalised margins after an exceptionally strong 2024. The Supply & Trading business saw the sharpest decline, with earnings of just €16 million compared to €318 million, due to underperformance in proprietary trading. Despite this, RWE expects the segment to close 2025 with adjusted EBITDA between €100 million and €500 million.

What is driving RWE’s investment strategy and how is it managing leverage during expansion?

RWE invested €2.5 billion net in the first half of 2025, focusing on expanding its generation portfolio. This figure includes proceeds from selling stakes in the Thor and Nordseecluster offshore wind projects to Norges Bank Investment Management. For the full year, the group has earmarked €7 billion in net investments as it builds out its project pipeline.

Net debt rose to €15.5 billion at 30 June 2025, up from year-end 2024, primarily due to these high capital expenditures. The company is targeting a leverage factor — net debt to adjusted EBITDA — of no more than 3.0, a threshold it expects to meet despite the expansion. Institutional sentiment suggests that maintaining this disciplined balance sheet approach is critical to preserving RWE’s investment-grade profile while funding growth.

How is RWE positioning for the remainder of 2025 and beyond despite first-half headwinds?

RWE has confirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, forecasting adjusted EBITDA between €4.55 billion and €5.15 billion and adjusted net income of €1.3 billion to €1.8 billion. At the midpoint, this aligns with the €2.10 EPS goal for the year. Management reiterated its 2027 and 2030 EPS targets and stressed the value-accretive nature of the portfolio expansion under way.

Longer-term, analysts believe the group’s combination of renewables scale, battery storage integration, and flexible thermal generation — alongside an active energy trading arm — positions it to navigate variable renewable output and market volatility. By 2030, the company’s coal phase-out and net-zero 2040 target remain aligned with its decarbonisation strategy, with investments concentrated in offshore and onshore wind, solar, and storage.

What does institutional sentiment indicate about RWE’s current trajectory?

Institutional investors appear encouraged by the group’s ability to maintain guidance despite adverse wind conditions and weaker trading performance, viewing the commissioning schedule for over 3 GW in the second half of 2025 as a key earnings driver. The capital recycling seen in the sale of partial project stakes is also perceived as a prudent way to fund growth without overextending leverage.

However, the sharp decline in Supply & Trading earnings serves as a reminder of the inherent volatility in this segment, and further weakness in wind output could pressure results if not offset by asset additions. Analysts suggest that delivering the second-half commissioning on schedule will be critical to meeting full-year earnings targets and maintaining dividend growth credibility.

Can RWE sustain earnings momentum while scaling renewables and managing market risks?

The remainder of 2025 will be a critical proving ground for RWE’s operational discipline and strategic execution. The utility faces the dual challenge of delivering more than 3 gigawatts of planned new capacity on schedule while managing the unpredictable swings of global commodity markets. Timely commissioning will be essential not only to offset the earnings drag from weaker first-half wind generation but also to maintain momentum toward its stated 2027 and 2030 earnings per share targets.

RWE’s diversified asset base — spanning offshore and onshore wind, utility-scale solar, battery storage, flexible gas and hydro capacity, and a global energy trading arm — provides a measure of resilience against single-segment volatility. This mix enables the company to balance seasonal and regional generation variability with dispatchable capacity and market optimisation opportunities. However, performance in its Supply & Trading segment, which has shown significant earnings sensitivity to market conditions, and output from its renewable generation fleet, which depends heavily on weather patterns, will remain pivotal determinants of full-year results.

From an investor sentiment perspective, the next two quarters will shape how institutions view RWE’s credibility in executing its growth pipeline under real-world constraints. Successfully meeting commissioning milestones and stabilising trading income would reinforce confidence in management’s ability to deliver consistent returns while scaling low-carbon generation. Conversely, delays or further volatility could test market patience, particularly given the ambitious capital deployment and decarbonisation commitments the group has made.

With a clear investment roadmap, a €7 billion net investment target for the year, and a coal phase-out by 2030, RWE’s near-term execution will directly influence its long-term positioning as one of Europe’s flagship energy transition leaders. The company’s ability to convert pipeline projects into operational assets — while navigating policy changes, grid integration challenges, and fluctuating power prices — will determine whether it can sustain both dividend growth and market leadership in the continent’s rapidly evolving electricity landscape.