Panthera Resources (AIM: PAT) jumps 11% after arbitration update in $1.6bn India claim as Bhukia gold project dispute gains momentum

Panthera Resources Plc (AIM: PAT) witnessed a sharp 11 percent surge in its share price, closing at 22.20 GBX on November 1, 2025. The rally came immediately after the gold exploration company released a detailed arbitration timeline related to its ongoing US$1.58 billion dispute with the Republic of India. This long-standing legal battle revolves around the stalled Bhukia gold project in the Indian state of Rajasthan, a prospective asset that Panthera Resources has been unable to develop due to licensing setbacks.

Through its Australian subsidiary Indo Gold Pty Ltd, Panthera Resources is pursuing a bilateral investment treaty claim under the 1999 Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of India on the Promotion and Protection of Investments. The newly published arbitration calendar outlines the progression of Phase 1 proceedings, which will examine jurisdiction, treaty breach allegations, and general principles of compensation. The hearings are scheduled to take place in December 2026 at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, with closing submissions expected in early January 2027.

Panthera Resources first filed its Memorial in May 2025, initiating a claim for US$1.58 billion in damages, net of Indian taxes. The tribunal’s procedural order has reassured investors by establishing clear timelines and a path forward for the company’s efforts to recover value lost due to what it considers unlawful denial of exploration rights. On November 1, shares opened at 21.00 GBX, touched an intraday high of 22.20 GBX, and settled at the same level by market close, reflecting speculative optimism and improved visibility around the company’s litigation strategy.

What is the current status of Panthera Resources’ US$1.58 billion arbitration case against the Republic of India?

Panthera Resources announced that the arbitration panel has issued a formal procedural calendar for Phase 1, which will address core legal issues related to jurisdiction, admissibility, and treaty violations under the bilateral agreement. India is required to file its counter-memorial by February 27, 2026. Indo Gold Pty Ltd will respond with its reply on July 17, 2026, and India will submit its rejoinder by October 23, 2026. Hearings are scheduled between December 14 and December 19, 2026, and all parties will make oral closing submissions on January 11, 2027.

This first phase is expected to determine whether the tribunal has the authority to hear the case, whether India breached its obligations under the treaty, and what principles should be applied to determine damages. The exact amount of damages, referred to as the “quantum,” will be determined separately in a potential Phase 2. The arbitration is being administered by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, with London serving as the legal seat of arbitration while the actual hearings will take place in The Hague.

Panthera Resources has maintained that its rights to develop the Bhukia gold project were obstructed for over a decade by the Government of Rajasthan, which ultimately culminated in a formal legislative change in 2021. The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Act of 2021 revoked the preferential rights to Prospecting Licences and Mining Leases under which Indo Gold Pty Ltd had operated, despite having made its initial investment in the project back in 2004.

Why is the Bhukia gold project so central to Panthera Resources’ legal and valuation narrative?

The Bhukia gold project represents the crown jewel of Panthera Resources’ Indian asset portfolio. After entering the Indian market through Indo Gold Pty Ltd in 2004, the company conducted multiple joint venture exploration programs with its Indian partner, Metal Mining Pvt Ltd. By 2006, Panthera Resources had completed 20 drill holes and announced a JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate of 38.5 million tonnes at 1.4 grams per tonne of gold, equivalent to roughly 1.74 million ounces. That estimate was brought in line with JORC 2012 standards in 2017.

The company had long stated its belief that Bhukia could support a large-scale, low-cost open-pit mining operation with favorable stripping ratios and the potential for copper and cobalt by-product recovery. In 2014, the Geological Survey of India published its own resource report based on over 150 drill holes. It estimated 6.7 million ounces of indicated and inferred gold resources under the United Nations Framework Classification system.

More recently, the Government of Rajasthan released a gazette notification reporting an updated mineral estimate of 113.52 million tonnes at 1.96 grams per tonne of gold and 0.14 percent copper. This translates to approximately 7.2 million ounces of gold with additional copper, nickel, and cobalt credits. This resource statement was developed in accordance with India’s Minerals (Evidence of Mineral Contents) Rules of 2015, which are based on international standards like UNFC and CRIRSCO but modified for Indian regulatory purposes.

Panthera Resources has long argued that the company’s investment in Bhukia was systematically undermined through bureaucratic delays and legal changes that culminated in expropriation without compensation. The arbitration claim rests on India’s alleged breach of Articles 3 and 7 of the bilateral treaty, which pertain to the promotion and protection of investments and protection from nationalisation or expropriation.

How does Panthera Resources’ litigation funding agreement with LCM reduce financial risk while sustaining its US$1.58 billion arbitration against India?

In August 2023, Panthera Resources announced a litigation funding agreement with LCM Funding SG Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Litigation Capital Management Limited, which is listed on the AIM Market of the London Stock Exchange. The facility provides up to US$13.6 million in non-recourse funding, meaning that Panthera Resources will not be required to repay the amount if it does not receive a favorable award or recovery.

The funding is earmarked exclusively for the prosecution of Indo Gold Pty Ltd’s treaty claims against the Republic of India. LCM Funding brings extensive experience in managing international arbitration, especially in high-stakes, cross-border disputes involving natural resource investments.

For shareholders, this arrangement significantly de-risks the litigation journey while preserving potential upside. It also reinforces market perception that the case has legal merit, given that a third-party funder with arbitration expertise is willing to underwrite the legal effort. The financing structure allows Panthera Resources to pursue its claim without drawing down from operational cash reserves, thereby maintaining corporate optionality during a multi-year arbitration process.

What are investors and institutions focusing on as Panthera Resources advances arbitration?

Panthera Resources’ 11 percent rally reflects renewed investor confidence, though much of the interest appears speculative given the long timelines and binary nature of arbitration outcomes. The company’s share price had previously hovered near 20 GBX, with intermittent spikes whenever updates on the Bhukia arbitration surfaced. With a market capitalization still significantly lower than the claimed US$1.58 billion in damages, investors are viewing the arbitration process as a leveraged opportunity.

Analysts monitoring small-cap activity in the London market noted that the tight bid-offer spread of 21.00 to 23.00 GBX on November 1, 2025, signals both rising liquidity and potential accumulation by retail and opportunistic institutional traders. However, caution remains the underlying tone, especially since arbitration cases, no matter how well-funded or justified, remain complex and slow to resolve.

The immediate focus for investors is the February 2026 deadline for India’s counter-memorial submission. This will mark the first formal defense from the Government of India and could reveal strategic positions or settlement intent. Panthera Resources has not commented on the possibility of negotiations outside the arbitration process but continues to frame its legal strategy around full adjudication.

What upcoming deadlines and hearings could define the next phase of Panthera Resources’ US$1.58 billion arbitration against India?

The next major catalyst in Panthera Resources’ arbitration journey will be the February 2026 filing from the Republic of India. This submission will address jurisdictional challenges, contest admissibility, and respond to the substance of Indo Gold Pty Ltd’s claims. The reply from Panthera Resources will be due by July 17, 2026, with India’s rejoinder scheduled for October 23, 2026. Hearings will take place in December 2026, followed by oral closing arguments in January 2027.

While no outcome is guaranteed, the structure of the process provides much-needed visibility. Panthera Resources is now in a multi-quarter holding pattern, where updates from the tribunal or Indian authorities could dramatically shift the valuation narrative. In the absence of new exploration or operational progress elsewhere in its portfolio, the legal case around Bhukia remains the primary driver of shareholder value.

If Panthera Resources secures a favorable ruling, it would not only validate its historical investment thesis in India but could also deliver transformational capital that supports future growth. Conversely, an unfavorable ruling would force a revaluation of the company’s legal asset model and could compress its share price to pre-litigation levels.

What are the key takeaways from Panthera Resources’ arbitration update and stock movement in November 2025?

• Panthera Resources Plc (AIM: PAT) stock rose 11% to 22.20 GBX following the announcement of an arbitration timeline in its US$1.58 billion dispute with the Republic of India.
• The dispute centers on the Bhukia gold project in Rajasthan, where the company claims its preferential Prospecting Licence rights were revoked under India’s MMDR2021 amendment.
• The arbitration tribunal has now issued a procedural calendar, with jurisdiction and merits hearings scheduled for December 2026 at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
• Panthera’s Australian subsidiary, Indo Gold Pty Ltd (IGPL), alleges breaches of Articles 3 and 7 of the 1999 India–Australia Bilateral Investment Treaty, citing expropriation and denial of fair treatment.
• The company estimates the Bhukia project hosts over 7.2 million ounces of gold with additional copper, nickel, and cobalt credits based on Indian and international geological reports.
• Litigation is being funded through a non-recourse US$13.6 million facility from LCM Funding, providing legal capital without financial risk to Panthera if the claim fails.
• Institutional interest in the stock is likely speculative but growing, with the legal action offering a high-stakes route to asset recovery without active exploration operations.
• Key milestones in the case begin with India’s counter-memorial filing in February 2026, followed by a structured sequence of replies and final oral hearings ending January 2027.
• The arbitration case could materially impact Panthera’s valuation, with potential outcomes ranging from multi-million-dollar settlement to no recovery, depending on tribunal findings.
• Investors are watching for any updates on resource reclassification, bilateral negotiations, or potential mining policy shifts in India that could influence legal or operational outcomes.