Novo Nordisk stock rises on Wegovy STEER data: Can semaglutide cement its lead over Eli Lilly?

Copenhagen-listed shares of Novo Nordisk A/S (CPH: NOVO-B.CO) closed up 1.76% at DKK 365.10 on September 1, 2025, following the release of new real-world cardiovascular data from its STEER study comparing Wegovy (semaglutide) to tirzepatide.

The sharp gain of DKK 6.30 came amid higher-than-average interest in the stock’s intraday action, even as volumes remained relatively moderate at 7,285 shares traded. The stock hovered around the DKK 365 level for most of the trading session, having opened at DKK 365.10, hitting an intraday high of DKK 365.30 and dipping slightly to a session low of DKK 365.00. With the intraday movement relatively flat, it was the broader narrative—not price volatility—that stole the spotlight.

And that narrative was this: real-world data suggests Wegovy may offer cardiovascular protection benefits significantly superior to Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) in a head-to-head analysis. The results were presented at the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Congress 2025 in Madrid, and the market reacted immediately.

What did Novo Nordisk’s STEER study show about Wegovy’s real-world cardiovascular outcomes?

In the STEER study, semaglutide 2.4 mg—marketed as Wegovy—was associated with a 57% lower risk of heart attack, stroke, or all-cause death compared to tirzepatide in people with obesity and established cardiovascular disease, who maintained uninterrupted treatment. Even when including those with treatment gaps, Wegovy still showed a 29% reduction in risk, reinforcing its differentiated value proposition in the GLP-1 space.

Novo Nordisk’s executive vice president Ludovic Helfgott said the findings confirm that semaglutide stands alone as “the only available GLP-1-based medication with proven cardiovascular benefits for people living with obesity and cardiovascular disease, without diabetes.” The quote echoes the company’s long-standing effort to distance Wegovy from competitors by highlighting both SELECT trial and real-world evidence (RWE) data.

How does this compare with SELECT and prior SCORE study results?

The results presented at ESC 2025 build on earlier evidence from Novo Nordisk’s SELECT trial, which had already demonstrated a 20% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in overweight and obese individuals without diabetes. That trial helped position semaglutide not just as a weight loss therapy, but also as a tool for long-term cardiovascular risk mitigation.

Prior to STEER, the SCORE study had already suggested better outcomes among semaglutide users in real-world clinical practice. However, STEER is notable for its direct comparison against tirzepatide, a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist developed by Eli Lilly that has been aggressively marketed as the most effective weight-loss injectable. The head-to-head design of the STEER study increases its market relevance and will likely bolster Novo Nordisk’s messaging around Wegovy’s cardiovascular benefit differentiation.

Could this result fuel broader label expansions or guideline revisions?

From a regulatory perspective, STEER’s findings may not immediately alter drug labels but could influence clinical guidelines, payer coverage decisions, and physician sentiment. In the U.S., semaglutide is already approved for reducing MACE in patients with established CVD and obesity, whereas tirzepatide is not yet approved for cardiovascular risk reduction—though Eli Lilly is likely to submit data from its own ongoing trials soon.

Analysts tracking cardiovascular outcomes in the obesity space suggest that real-world studies like STEER are increasingly important to payers and clinicians looking for evidence of benefit beyond controlled trial environments. The fact that STEER used the Komodo Health database—capturing over 21 million patients—adds weight to the statistical power and perceived robustness of the conclusions.

How are investors reading the stock move—is this a breakout or a plateau?

Technically, the stock remained within a narrow band between DKK 365.00 and DKK 365.30 on September 1. But psychologically, the data release added fresh conviction to bulls who see semaglutide as a durable growth engine well into the 2030s.

Even so, with the stock already up over 35% year-to-date, some analysts caution that valuation risks remain, especially if regulatory timelines for newer formulations or pipeline assets slip. That said, the market’s muted but positive response could indicate that investors have not fully priced in the long-term implications of semaglutide’s real-world cardiovascular performance.

How real-world data on Wegovy is shaping institutional views on GLP-1 class leadership

With Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide continuing to post impressive weight loss efficacy in trials, the competitive gap is narrowing on the surface. However, Novo Nordisk’s cardiovascular moat appears to be widening thanks to studies like SELECT, SCORE, and now STEER.

Sell-side analysts from Jefferies and Berenberg previously noted that “cardiometabolic differentiation” is likely to be the new battleground for GLP-1 class leadership—and this latest dataset puts Novo Nordisk in a commanding position. Jefferies analysts recently raised their target price on Novo Nordisk, citing Wegovy’s potential not only in obesity, but cardiorenal and osteoarthritis comorbidities now embedded in the label.

What’s next for semaglutide beyond obesity and heart disease?

The company is also exploring expanded indications for semaglutide in areas such as HFpEF (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction) and osteoarthritis, two large unmet need areas where obesity is a major comorbidity. The updated European label already includes improvement in HFpEF symptoms and knee pain outcomes.

Such label updates are not merely incremental—they’re designed to extend the commercial lifecycle of semaglutide and establish it as a multi-system chronic disease platform rather than a single-purpose weight-loss drug. This is also critical for fending off biosimilar threats post-2030.

Could Wegovy’s cardiovascular edge accelerate market access in emerging markets?

In countries like India, Brazil, and parts of Southeast Asia, access to GLP-1 therapies has been restricted due to cost, lack of reimbursement, and limited awareness. However, if payers in these regions begin prioritizing outcomes-based health economics—especially around cardiovascular disease—Wegovy’s RWE advantage could drive faster inclusion in public formularies, potentially unlocking billions in new revenue.

Additionally, a strong cardiovascular profile is likely to support employer and insurer-backed weight-loss programs, particularly in the U.S. and EMEA where lifestyle-related disease burden is skyrocketing.

Is semaglutide’s cardiovascular edge strong enough to secure long-term GLP-1 dominance?

The STEER study solidifies what the SELECT trial initiated and what SCORE hinted at: Wegovy is not just about weight loss—it’s about saving lives. With a 57% relative risk reduction for MACE over tirzepatide in treatment-adherent patients, Novo Nordisk has added a powerful weapon to its arsenal against Eli Lilly in the multibillion-dollar GLP-1 war.

Whether this translates into new highs for Novo Nordisk stock depends on upcoming catalysts—further label expansions, manufacturing scale-ups, and pricing negotiations. But for now, the message from the market is clear: semaglutide is still the molecule to beat.