In a stunning turn of events, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to secure a resounding victory in the general election, according to TV exit polls. This outcome, which surpassed the expectations of many analysts, indicates a significant political shift, potentially granting the NDA a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament.

Surpassing Expectations and Setting Records

The summary of six exit polls suggests that the NDA could secure between 355 and 380 seats, well above the 272 needed for a simple majority and significantly higher than the 353 seats won in the 2019 general election. This projected win is likely to energize financial markets, which are anticipated to react positively when they reopen on Monday. Such a majority would not only reaffirm the NDA’s dominance but also enable potentially transformative constitutional amendments.

Opposition Challenges and Modi’s Triumph

Despite a vigorous campaign by the opposition “INDIA” alliance led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party, which was projected to win between 125 to 165 seats, Modi confidently claimed victory. “I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” Modi declared on X, formerly known as Twitter. His assertion came without direct reference to the exit polls, underscoring a dismissive stance towards the opposition’s efforts, which he labeled as “casteist, communal, and corrupt.”

The Controversy Surrounding Exit Polls

Exit polls in India have historically been met with skepticism due to their inconsistent accuracy, a reflection of the country’s vast and varied electorate. This election cycle was no different, with pre-poll surveys predicting a comfortable majority for the BJP. However, the spirited efforts by the “INDIA” alliance introduced some uncertainty into the race, challenging the anticipated margin of victory.

The Market’s Reaction and Economic Implications

Market analysts are optimistic about the implications of the exit polls. V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, expressed relief at the clarity provided by the polls, stating, “Exit poll results which indicate a clear victory for the NDA with around 360 seats completely removes the so-called election jitters which have been weighing on markets in May.” He anticipates a robust market rally, signaling strong investor confidence in the continuity of Modi’s growth-focused economic policies.

What Lies Ahead

As nearly one billion eligible voters await the official vote count on June 4, the potential third consecutive term for Modi could make him only the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to achieve this feat. Modi’s campaign, which pivoted from touting his decade-long achievements to targeting the opposition, and the economic issues of unemployment and inflation remain at the forefront of the national discourse.

  BJP victory, exit polls, Indian general election, Narendra Modi, NDA majority, political analysis