Jordan’s surprising new PM choice: Can Jafar Hassan steer the kingdom through crisis?

Jordan‘s King Abdullah II has appointed Jafar Hassan, a US-educated technocrat and his chief of staff, as the new prime minister, the royal court announced on 15 September 2024. This appointment follows the resignation of the previous government led by Bisher Khasawneh, who served as prime minister for nearly four years. Hassan is tasked with forming a new government amid a complex political landscape shaped by recent parliamentary elections and economic challenges exacerbated by regional conflicts.

Hassan, who holds a degree from Harvard University, is widely respected as a technocrat. He previously served as a planning minister and is currently the head of King Abdullah’s office. His appointment comes after the Islamist opposition, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies, made significant gains in the recent elections, winning 31 seats in the 138-member parliament. This marked their most substantial success since parliamentary life was revived in Jordan in 1989 after decades of martial law. Despite this, the parliament remains predominantly pro-government, although the increased presence of a more vocal opposition could pose challenges to King Abdullah’s Western-leaning reform agenda.

The new government, led by Hassan, faces the daunting task of managing an economy hit hard by various factors, including the ongoing Gaza conflict, which has curbed investment and caused a significant decline in tourism. Jordan has been grappling with a decade of sluggish economic growth, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic and regional instability from neighbouring conflicts in Iraq and Syria. The country’s public debt has surpassed $50 billion, and unemployment remains high, making economic reform a priority.

King Abdullah’s government has been under pressure to accelerate reforms guided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to address these economic challenges. However, the new composition of the parliament could complicate these efforts. The Islamist opposition, buoyed by rising anti-Israel sentiment and their support for Palestinian militant group Hamas, could obstruct IMF-backed free-market reforms. This opposition has led some of the largest protests in the region in support of Hamas, capitalising on the anger over Israel’s actions in Gaza, thereby increasing their popularity among Jordan’s population.

Hassan’s appointment is seen as an attempt to balance the pressures of modernisation and economic reform with maintaining stability in a country heavily reliant on foreign aid from Western donors. Under Jordan’s constitution, most executive powers rest with the king, who can appoint and dissolve governments and parliaments. This political structure allows the king to manage the government’s direction, but the new government under Hassan will still need to navigate the political complexities presented by a more diverse parliament.

Outgoing Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh, a veteran diplomat and former palace adviser, will remain in a caretaker role until the new cabinet is formed. Khasawneh’s tenure was marked by efforts to drive economic reforms aimed at reversing Jordan’s economic stagnation. However, these reforms were often stalled by the conservative establishment, which feared that liberalisation would undermine their influence.

As Jafar Hassan prepares to lead Jordan through these turbulent times, his success will depend on his ability to implement necessary economic reforms while managing the political challenges posed by a more assertive opposition. His leadership will be crucial in maintaining Jordan’s stability and continuing its path towards modernisation amidst regional uncertainties.