Uzbekistan’s parliamentary elections on October 27 have drawn global scrutiny, with observers predicting the vote will reinforce President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s dominance. While recent constitutional amendments introduced a mixed electoral system, critics argue this reform has done little to loosen Mirziyoyev’s hold over Uzbekistan’s government, as registered political parties largely align with his policies. The election is expected to install a compliant parliament, ensuring that legislative decisions will continue reflecting the president’s agenda without genuine political opposition.

A New Electoral Structure Masks an Unchanged Power Dynamic

In 2023, Mirziyoyev introduced a shift to a mixed electoral system for parliamentary elections. This structural change was seen by some as a progressive step for Uzbekistan, aiming to diversify representation in the Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s Legislative Chamber. The system divides the 150 seats between a first-past-the-post voting method in individual constituencies and proportional representation based on party lists. Yet, in practice, all five officially registered parties are viewed as supportive of the president’s policies, leaving the new parliament with no significant opposition voices.

Economic Progress Doesn’t Translate to Political Diversity

Since 2016, Mirziyoyev has brought transformative changes to Uzbekistan’s economic and social spheres. His liberalization policies have attracted foreign investment and led to moderate reforms in media and public expression, gaining him popularity both domestically and abroad. Despite this, power remains concentrated, and political diversity remains absent, as parliament is expected to uphold Mirziyoyev’s policy directions without significant resistance.

Experts have noted that Uzbekistan’s path to democracy remains challenged by these restrictions. An academic in Central Asian studies suggested that while the reforms signal potential openness, the lack of true opposition implies the system’s primary function is to maintain the status quo. This expert added that Uzbekistan’s economic liberalization seems aimed at modernization rather than genuine democratization, as no independent candidates are present.

Balancing Regional Diplomacy and Economic Interests

Mirziyoyev’s administration continues to navigate delicate regional relationships. Uzbekistan’s diplomatic approach reflects careful neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, balancing strong economic ties with Russia against adherence to Western sanctions. Uzbekistan, heavily reliant on remittances from Uzbek migrant workers in Russia, has avoided entanglement in the geopolitical rift, prioritizing economic cooperation and remaining diplomatically neutral. Observers say that Mirziyoyev’s balanced stance is likely to persist, with parliamentary support enabling his administration to adapt smoothly to regional challenges.

Expert Analysis: Centralized Power at the Expense of Political Reform

Political analysts note that Mirziyoyev’s influence over the political structure of Uzbekistan remains unparalleled. A political science expert suggested that while Uzbekistan’s parliamentary reforms allow for structural diversity, they lack the democratic dynamism seen in more competitive systems. With a parliament that remains largely in step with Mirziyoyev’s priorities, Uzbekistan’s policy direction is unlikely to change. The expert noted that Uzbekistan is prioritizing stability and economic progress over political pluralism, an approach that may appeal to those in favor of a strong central government but limits opportunities for political reform.

Looking Ahead: Stability at the Expense of Democratic Growth

As Uzbekistan’s parliament assembles, the consolidation of Mirziyoyev’s influence appears assured. With a legislature unlikely to challenge his vision, Uzbekistan will likely continue its focus on economic modernization, leveraging its geographical position and resources to attract foreign investment and regional partnerships. Yet, without political diversity, the country’s democratic growth remains stalled, leaving future reforms uncertain.

  Central Asia, economic liberalization, Legislative Chamber, Oliy Majlis, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan